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Dispersion, Diversity, and Resilience

This is a guest post by WebHubbleTelescope.

If we want to have any hope in controlling our destiny we have to understand our environment. In one sense, if we treat our environment as a control system, capable of responding to a stimulus, we need to understand not only its behavior, but how it will respond to the stimulus. One can ask: will it collapse in response to dwindling resources? Or will it rebound and stay resilient? For that we require a good model of the system. And of course, the simpler the model to describe, the better.

The system thinker and cyberneticist Ross Ashby summed it up with two seminal ideas. His simplicity criteria, the “Law of Requisite variety” states, “Variety absorbs variety, defines the minimum number of states necessary for a controller to control a system of a given number of states.” Our capabilities thus become limited by the amount of information available to us. The second, the “Good Regulator theorem” goes “every good regulator of a system must be a model of that system”. In other words, to regulate any causal system, we should require a model of how the system will behave normally and how it will react to a disturbance. The two relate directly to the classical view of control theory, that of controllability and observability. That may sound a tad idealistic, but that’s how an engineer would respond to a problem statement.

The seeming diverse complexity of a system such as the Amazon rain forest, remains in many ways simple to describe. Interestingly, we can actually understand how that system evolves and adapts, given that we have a simple-enough model to work with. To compare and contrast, we can also consider a model of oil resources and how we can understand a seemingly random distribution of reserves.

Further, to have any chance of controlling the behavior we need good observability via good measurements. A human mobility metric is just one example of this, one simple to model, which gives us a good understanding, and one that we can monitor in the future.

For these three cases, (1) biodiversity, (2) oil abundance, and (3) human mobility, I will describe a few simple models based on entropy principles (maximum entropy dispersion, the “entroplet”) and working with barest and most minimal information available to us. We will see how far that can take us. The discipline of complex and resilient systems remains wide-open for discussion.

George Mobus recently posted on Energy Flow, Emergent Complexity, and Collapse. As a response, I intentionally named this post Dispersion, Diversity, and Resilience. This doesn’t mean that I disagree with his point-of-view, just that mine differs.

I have a long-running interest in the topic of disorder. When I first approach a problem, I try to characterize the observed behavior according to whether it follows a predictable, unpredictable, or random/noisy process. I rarely use the categories of complex or chaotic. In my mind, if you do that, you give up some hope in solving the problem.

So I tend to rebel against conventional notions of complexity. As defined by the scientific establishment, complexity seems to have taken on a discipline of its own. Once some problem gets characterized as complex or chaotic, the big thinkers emerge from the Nonlinear Institute of Profundity, leaving the rest of us behind. As a more pragmatic approach, I wouldn’t mind capturing a complementary world-view to overtly sophisticated models of complexity. I notice that the expert-level mathematical explanations invariably become hairy, while the popular explanations lack common sense or excessively rely on heuristics (see oil depletion analysis as a primary example of the latter). However, the most elegant approaches tend to apply the simplest patterns to concisely describe the complexity. I elaborated on this topic in a previous post, so I won’t try to explain the philosophy behind the “simplicity out of complexity” paradigm.

Instead, I want to practically demonstrate where and how some simple and rather parsimonious explanations can go a long way to explaining why disordered, yet seemingly complex, systems have very intuitive explanations. And in keeping with the intent of this post, I will try to show how these system might become resilient against collapse. I believe that we often mistake complexity for garden-variety disorder (i.e. entropy) and that the diversity that arises due to strictly entropic arguments may also demonstrate some robustness. In the end, if we can understand how the diversity arises, then we may figure out how to achieve or at least maintain a good outcome.

As a muddying factor, I sense that people’s intuition fails when they try to deal with complexity or entropic disorder. Although I consider the supporting explanations and rationalization for disordered systems rather simple, they do build on some math. Ordinarily, this would get the math-phobes upset, and if this ever gets a wider audience, it may anger some of the experts on the subject as well. As you will see, the premise that I will outline essentially trivializes certain aspects of the “complex ecosystem”. What we actually observe amounts to nothing more than our own filtered view on a disordered state. As the key point to retain, the observed disorder runs high enough so as to simplify the entire argument, both mathematically and conceptually.

In my previous post on crude complexity, I used the writings of Murray Gell-Mann to guide the narrative. He basically explained how seemingly complex systems often possess the simplest descriptions. To extend this context, I will use Edwin T. Jaynes research on probability and entropy to help justify the simplicity premise. According to Jaynes, we just scratch the surface of the practical applications of entropy if we consider it only as something that arises out of thermodynamics. Instead, if we treat entropy as a first-class measure of the disorder in a system, it can prove useful in many other scientific investigations.

Of course, we can make a connection to the oil depletion equation as well, as simplicity often proves contagious. The systems thinker John Gall (Systemantics) once said: “A complex system that works is invariably found to have resulted from a simple system that worked”.

I will go through a few cases of seeming complexity masquerading as random and disordered behavior. These share the approach of applying some basic ideas and common sense, and then working out the problems as you would in a chalk-talk.  The shorter the better in that case, otherwise you risk having your audience doze off.

I tend to use the same math in all these analyses. So if you get stuck in understanding the principles in one of the explanations, something might spark your intuition in another. I apply the same math as a way to unify my understanding, as well as to substantiate the overall approach. As with most effective arguments, the more broadly we can apply the arguments, the more confidence we have in its generality and applicability. For many of the global problems we face, we don’t have the benefit of a controlled experiment. The earth itself acts as both the test and the control. For that reason, if we can find unifying global behaviors, we gain confidence by the accumulation of these “proxy” explanations. As a side effect, you may end up finding quite a few interesting emergent results from the case studies.

The first case:

Relative Abundance Distribution

In nature, the diversity of species gets reflected in the samples of various populations taken during scientific surveys. Scientists invariably find, and we get reminded quite often, that a few species predominate in their abundance while the majority of species have relatively sparse populations. Many species remain extremely rare or go undiscovered. This data typically gets plotted as a Relative Abundance Distribution (RAD) histogram.

As a result of these empirical observations — usually taken in some very diverse populations of a certain category of wildlife or plant — you will actually see relative counts of the most common species outnumber the rarest species by orders of magnitude. In sampling experiments, the rarest species may actually have counts of only 1.

Most recent research on this topic has concentrated on understanding the relative species abundance (RSA) of somewhat isolated ecosystems. Understandably, scientists approach it this way so that they can limit or control the set of measurable parameters and therefore understand the phenomena on a larger and more heterogeneous scale. This 2007 article in Nature, Patterns of relative species abundance in rainforests and coral reefs, suggests that interactions among species don’t have as large an effect as imagined.

Abstract: A formidable many-body problem in ecology is to understand the complex of factors controlling patterns of relative species abundance (RSA) in communities of interacting species. Unlike many problems in physics, the nature of the interactions in ecological communities is not completely known. Although most contemporary theories in ecology start with the basic premise that species interact, here we show that a theory in which all interspecific interactions are turned off leads to analytical results that are in agreement with RSA data from tropical forests and coral reefs. The assumption of non-interacting species leads to a sampling theory for the RSA that yields a simple approximation at large scales to the exact theory. Our results show that one can make significant theoretical progress in ecology by assuming that the effective interactions among species are weak in the stationary states in species-rich communities such as tropical forests and coral reefs.

I have no problems with their assertions, only that the math that they invoke goes a bit overboard, and provides very little insight. Practically speaking, with just a few nods to maximum entropy, we can show agreement to the results in a few lines of derivation. With that simplicity, we get the benefits of a significant amount of extra insight. Also note that the authors state that they don’t know the interactions; this uncertainty suggest that entropy arguments may work out well. In other words, maximum entropy provides an avenue for reasoning about an uncertain world.

To derive a universal RAD, we start out with a few assumptions.

We first assume that different species evolve as random processes that essentially fill up space. I propose a quantity that, for the lack of a better term, I call the adaptation level, A. This can have the units of, for example, #organisms/acre so it maps to a parameter proportional to sampling some species.

We next use the Maximum Entropy Principle (MaxEnt) to describe the uncertainty in the time it takes for a species to reach an adaptation level.

p(t) = (1/t0) exp (-t/t0)
P(A,r | t0) = integral of p(t) for all t such that t is greater than A/r

These are both probability distributions, the first a density function and the second a conditional cumulative probability.

The first expression essentially states that we don’t know how long it takes to reach a given adaptation level, only that it has a mean time, t0. This mean time could reach millions of years, but for now the specific value doesn’t matter. We just assume that the likelihood of times around that mean has a maximum entropy described by the exponential probability function, p(t). We then assume a rate, r, that relates a time to reach a given adaptation level, A = r*t. Every species that reaches the adaptation level has to evolve for a time t=A/r, so the conditional cumulative probability is described as P(A,r | t0) and derives to the value below.

P(A,r | t0) = exp(-A/(r*t0))

We also have uncertainty in the adaptation level, A, assuming only that it also has some mean value A0 with the same MaxEnt probability density function.

P(r | t0,A0) = integral of P(A,r | t0) over all A

This results in the cumulative adaptation rate function as follows:

P(r | t0,A0) = 1/(1+A0/(r*t0)) = 1/(1+r0/r)

If we replace A0/t0 with r0, we see that the above relation describes a set of species that evolve with a huge dispersion — high enough for it to describe a fat-tail distribution of rates. In other words, the large disorder in both the time scale and adaptation level generate a rate function that generates an even larger entropy in the evolution of various species. The two degrees of freedom in uncertainty gives it double the entropy of a single MaxEnt exponential probability density function. This uncertainty results in a very disordered system. I make the claim that diversification and growth of speciation possesses maximum entropy. However consumed energy aids in driving adaptation, it doesn’t affect the probabilities, as entropy plays the lead role in generating the dispersion.

The relative abundance comes about when you consider that low values of r will lead to smaller relative population levels than higher values of r. Since probabilities get invoked, we also see the effects of abundance as a combination of population size and rarity. In other words, abundance essentially relates the value of r (proportional to the size of the species population when evaluated over a period of time) to rarity, which states how often that size of population occurs. (To foreshadow a bit, the same argument holds in sizing oil reservoirs.)

At this point, I don’t necessarily care how the authors’ of the Nature article derived their own model, just that it has greater informational complexity than my derivation. Since the equation for P(r | r0) contains only a single adjustable parameter, r0, it meets the Gell-Mann acid test for simplicity. When we transform r0 to an abundance, we use a proportionality constant, k, and call the result an abundance dispersion factor, D=k*r0*time.

CDF : P(X) = 1/(1+D/X)
PDF : p(X) = D/(D+X)^2

The basic normalized shape looks like the following histogram plotted on a double logarithmic scale (the log-normal heuristic is shown for comparison):

On this scale D=1, and the term X=abundance corresponds to the relative size of the population, while p(X) provides the abundance of that population in terms of a probability. Therefore, you can read it as either very small or very large X populations occur infrequently, with the peak frequency lying in between the extremes. However, since large populations consist of large numbers of organisms, they do show up more often in statistical samples. The rarest species may never show up in samples (the so-called “Preston’s veil”) both because rare species have a small population and because that size population rarely occurs over the epochal time integration considered. Interestingly, no mean value exists for this PDF, which often happens for fat-tail distributions. In practice, this has little impact in a finite world, as we consider both finite time and space to generate limiting constraints.

That essentially describes the extent of the theory. Simple enough, so let’s see how effectively a single parameter fit works with the observed data.

Results. Data of relative abundance usually gets plotted as a cumulative rank histogram (also known as a Whittaker plot) or as a Preston plot (which essentially describes the probability density function (PDF) as a logarithmically binned histogram).

I took data from the Nature article and applied the simple theory on Whittaker histograms first. The following diagrams contain a single-parameter fit to the data, shown as the RED lines. Each diagram corresponds to a different isolated tropical forest region and the RAD for sampled tree species within those regions. The BCI region has a dispersion factor of D=23 while the Pasoh region has a factor of D=14. Since this function has scale-free properties, the dispersion factor really only shifts the location of the knee in the curve along the abundance axis. The BCI has a higher mode for the relative abundance than the Pasoh region, which could imply that the most common species adapted faster for the BCI region or that the BCI region evolved/adapted over a longer period of time. Importantly, we can’t tell the difference because we have derived A0/t0 only as a ratio; in other words, we have lost the ability to separate the two effects.

The movement of the mode becomes more apparent if graphed as a Preston plot. This bins the data on a more granular level, yet gives a view that more intuitively shows the most frequent population as a peak value. The same data shows up as BLUE dots below.

The general trend shows some universality. Plotted below in RED dots is the fit to a sampling of moth populations.

Figure 3: RAD histogram for moth population. Red dots show the dispersive model.

Remember, the factor D sets the peak position and provides the only adjustable parameter in the fit. Maximum entropy considerations alone set the width of the curve. For the moth RAD histogram shown above, the black line gives the log-normal fit. This may appear better than the dispersive fit, but the log-normal has three adjustable parameters available for tuning, and has little additional intuitive significance.

Not all of the RAD plots show a mode peak away from low abundance. For example, the adjacent figure reproduced from the Nature article generates data for some localized coral communities. From what I understand, these have gotten somewhat isolated from the larger metacommunity which understandably would show a larger diversity in the coral population. The isolation gives many low abundance species, binned as base 2 abundance categories between 0, 1 and 2 (2⁰=1, 2¹=2, 2²=4).

Qualitatively this also agrees with what the dispersive formulation says if we apply low values of the dispersion factor, D. Again, these populations may not have evolved/adapted as fast or they may not have evolved/adapted over a long enough period. Without additional information, this is all that the maximum entropy principle can tell us.

If we plot a range of dispersion factors on the same binned max rank of samples, the results appear as below. Apart from low values of D, varying the value of D simply shifts the distributions away from the origin. Each shape defines an entroplet, which lacks any parameter besides its position, becoming essentially scale-free. On the horizontal logarithmic scale, the width looks like it remains constant, but it actually spreads out to accommodate a larger range of individuals per species.

This article further describes the extent of the metacommunity diversity. The histogram on the left below shows the dispersion of coral species on a more local scale while the plot on the right duplicates that result while also displaying the large shift (256 much larger than 66) on a metacommunity scale. So even though the dispersion factor changes by nearly a factor of four, the range in number of individuals per species agrees perfectly with the maximum entropy formulation.

The dispersive formulation will likely work on any general population simply because the relative abundance of species results from a principle of maximum disorder in the adaptation rates.  With that uncertainty in place, the Maximum Entropy Principle guides us to the correct distribution.

This brings up an interesting situation. What happens when we try to apply this construct on a massively larger metacommunity scale? The tree diversity of the entire Amazon basin provides a situation that we can analyze in context. The distinction here is that the heterogeneous nature of the geography and geological events places the dispersion on a smeared time-scale. As you can see below, the histograms show a much broader shoulder than the isolated adaptation results.

Figure 6: RAD histograms of trees in the Amazon basin. (Ignore the jump between 1 and .01 on the y-scale, as this looks like a typo)

To model the effect on a larger scale using MaxEnt dispersion, we have to consider a spread in time ranges. Unlike isolated regions, such as might happen on an island (e.g. BCI = Barro Colorado Island), adaptation did not start at one specific time in prior ecological history. Instead, due to a variety of factors, which can include mass extinctions, introductions, and climate change, the effective start time for adapation ranges over a scale aligned with historical events.

The time integration runs from the first significant event at a time t+T ago to the last significant event t ago (also the maximum entropy result for a range). The value of T denotes a very large ecological time scale in comparison to t.

P(X) = Time integral from t to t+T of k*r0*time/(D+k*r0*time)^2
P(X) = C*ln( (1+X/D1)/(1+X/D2) )

This generates a logarithmic-shaped function that has a much more diverse spread in abundance levels compared to the isolated adaptation result. The values of D1 and D2 correspond to an epochal time range, and C is a constant that normalizes the result to 1 as X goes to infinity. Compare the red line below to Figure 6.

Figure 7: RAD histograms of dispersive models with specific Local start time and smeared Meta start time. For Meta, D ranges from D1=1.7 to D2=3300. For Local, D is fixed.

If you look at Figure 4, you can almost intuit what happened during the time integration. Each of the peak positions for various values of D gets spread out over time so that the linear superposition of the individual curves creates a broad almost flat-topped peak on the binned histogram as shown below. The interpretation for this uniformity makes intuitive sense: if you reach far back enough, every effective adaptation level would be achieved, split equally between each doubling octave. The effects of dispersion spreads out the impact over time so that each generation contributes evenly. In my book, that defines an existential entropy, conceptually similar to the flat white noise spectrum that forms the background radiation in the universe — in other words, noise as a form of ultimate disorder.

Figure 8: RAD histogram of time integrated metacommunity. Compare with the inset of Figure 6.

That basically explains the diversity of species according to entropic dispersion. Resilience occurs as a result of the shear diversity in the species. If one species becomes extinct, another one will likely take its place. It make take a long time, but it certainly will happen.

If you want to get really overloaded in math, go to the papers written by the authors of the Nature article. They don’t seem to mention entropy at all, preferring to use conventional combinatorial statistical arguments (exactly how you can derive entropy, by the way). So you can take the long way around the lake (their approach) or take the scientific shortcut across the water (my approach). I essentially ignored their overly sophisticated derivation because it lacked the simplicity that these problems should demonstrate. Go with the math that I have described and you can actually try out the models yourself and get the insight that I have reached. Recall that this model contains only a single parameter and, quite fundamentally, we have nothing to fear as the results derive from garden-variety disorder and the complexity essentially wilts away.

I especially harp on the math model because the math alone shows significant similarity to what happens when we consider the sizing and abundance of oil reservoirs. That serves as our second case.

The second case:

Oil Reservoir Size Distributions

I use essentially the same entropic dispersion formulation to describe the variation of reservoir sizes in the context of oil exploration. Instead of searching for living organisms and ranking the relative abundance, we sample geological formations and rank order the sizes of reservoirs we find. I go into the details of this approach in previous posts so won’t repeat the details here. The fact that a dispersion form works just as well for oil as it does for species has to do with the disordered range in rates that go into reservoir formation. The figure below shows the agreement for entropic dispersion for North Sea reservoir data.

Figure 9: Data of reservoir sizes for North Sea (blue dots) plotted alongside dispersive model.

I find it intriguing the similarity between the the large population of a few species of living organisms and the large size of just a few oil reservoirs. The same MaxEnt math generates exactly the same fat-tail distributions.

Another interesting analogy in reservoir size distribution relates to how the dispersion factor varies significantly in different regions of the world. In particular, the USA has a dispersion factor that appears lower than elsewhere. Fitting the values for the USA, we see a value of around 1, whereas the North Sea has a value of 21 (see Figure 8).

I use the same interpretation here as I use in species adaptation. If I assume that the isolated North Sea region “evolved” from a point in time long ago, then the single entroplet fits the data well.  However, the entire USA shows a much more heterogeneous nature, partly due to its geographic area, and we can use a maximum entropy estimator to uniformly spread the entroplet functions over a range in start times (i.e. the MEP estimator for a fixed range is a uniform density). So if we apply this to the USA, the fit becomes better and the dispersion factor increases to better match that observed in other parts of the world (usually between 10 and 30). In other words, the North Sea acts as a localized community and the USA provides a metacommunity in the analogous ecosystem sense. The solid black line overlays the data points; we could interpret the range as occurring between 500 million years ago and 0.5 million years ago, with anything shorter than this time spilling beyond the MaxRank of 14,000 fields (field data from 1986).

The flattening of the PDF that occurs in the Amazonian case for tree diversity also occurs in the USA for reservoir size diversity. The uniform time-shifted aggregation of the entroplets does not affect the tails but makes the mid-range of sizes more equally abundant. As a bit of insight, this likely accounts for the greater percentage of low volume stripper wells in the USA.

I suppose that the the USA could have expended more effort in finding small reservoirs than other oil-producing countries, which may contribute to a lower range of values for D. The geological rate of reservoir formation also could have progressed on average much more slowly here than elsewhere. Or, more likely according to this model, it has started from a more recent geological epoch, so it hasn’t matured as much as the rest of the world. Whether this has consequences, or remains an inconsequential data point will have to wait until we get better data.

In a sense, the diversity of reservoir sizes around the world has effectively reached that of a set of biological species; the origin of oil formation in geological terms occurred long ago, but geological activity has likely allowed the movement of oil to effectively “restart” many times over epochs. Since I showed that the greater diversity of USA oil follows the pattern of  Amazonian tree species, we should also find a more uniform density of oil reservoir sizes around the knee of the curve across the global spectrum.

However, unlike the resilience of a diverse biological population, no rebound effect occurs for oil depletion. Once we deplete oil, it doesn’t come back. The size of the reservoir doesn’t matter. Other smaller size reservoirs can take up the slack, but unlike the diversity of living organisms, dead organisms do not recover.

Many other analogs exist between species search and reservoir discovery. For example, shown below is the species equivalent of a creaming curve (from Species Abundance Patterns). The rate at which we find oil reservoirs has a close analogy to the rate at which we find species. In terms of the reserve gowth issue, this has the same uncertainty in knowing when you have reached an asymptote..

Figure 12: Species equivalent of a creaming curve.

The third case:

Distribution of Human Travel

A final analogy has a purely human element.  Human travel and mobility patterns in the USA show the same dispersion formulation with excellent agreement to recent data. We might imagine that human travel patterns would follow some complex behavior, yet if we simply assume that the delta X position changes and the delta T time changes each follow maximum entropy probability density functions, then the travel patterns reduce to a simple dispersive result (shown as the blue dots below).

Figure 13: Human mobility in terms of dispersive model.

The green curve generates a single parameter fit to measured cell-phone usage data. The expression shown in the inset is a heuristic developed by the authors of the original Nature article in which they describe a “magic” exponent, beta. That fits equally well but has no basis in fundamental understanding. The beta term shown happens to come close (1.75+/-0.15) with the entropic dispersion exponent of 2. Unfortunately, the academic discussions surrounding human mobility appear even more sophisticated than that for eco-system diversity and the simple understanding gets lost.

As an interesting experiment, the dispersive function can be generated via a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation drawing from two MaxEnt variants, delta A and delta T, and then dividing the two, resulting in a set of sampled rates. One such MC run looks like the following, with the analytical result overlaid. In the real world, the effect of reduced sample space generates the noise observed.

Figure 14: Generating dispersion rates by deltaX/deltaT MaxEnt variates.

The resilience to human travel patterns in the face of dwindling oil supplies will become important in the future. In terms of the dispersive model, the value of D will likely shift to smaller values without changing the nature of the curve. We will still live in an entropic world, but the energy that allows us to move around easily will inhibit our resiliency.

Discussion

The simple theory defined here certainly does not qualify as blind curve fitting. Although abstractly defined, the assumptions follow from scientifically valid premises. As Jaynes suggests, you use maximum entropy arguments when you face any degree of uncertainty in your numbers. If you have better numbers, you can use those. The Maximum Entropy Principle has a close relative in Bayes Rule in this respect. As it stands, like Bayes, the model helps to manage our uncertainty by including valid prior information.

Dispersion : The effects of disorder result in variation of adaptation rates as a form of dispersion. This has more to do with entropy than energy flow.
Diversity : The huge changes in relative abundance comes about from the dispersion. I do not consider this emergent complexity, instead it describes diversity predicated on disorder. One man’s perceived complexity is another’s effective simplicity.
Resilience : The significant diversity derived simply from disorder considerations leads to the possibility of resilience against potential collapse. Since species may not have as much interdependence as assumed, it seems intuitive that the diversity can act as a buffer against extinctions. If one species becomes extinct, another more slowly evolving species may take over.

Using the same arguments as for species adaptation, we can arrive at similar results for reservoir sizing. The rather simple logical arguments should prove useful in any analytical context that proceeds under disordered, entropic conditions (see case 3 for a largely sociological example). In this regime you can’t use deterministic models such as Lotka-Volterra, and you need instead to consider probabilities for all your measures.  Jaynes had it right when he titled his final book as “Probability Theory: The Logic of Science“.

Besides Jaynes, the pioneers of fat-tail and fractal statistics have contributed some interesting insight, especially in pointing out that fat-tail statistics occur more often than common wisom dictates. Taleb’s admonition to not overuse Gaussian/normal statistics becomes very important when working under maximum uncertainty. As an example, the fact that we know the variance of a process, would suggest that we use a normal distribution, yet we have no knowledge of the standard deviation of any of our data sets. We barely have knowledge of the mean as it stands.

A bit puzzling in that I can imagine that Mandelbrot could likely have derived the dispersive model as it has a remarkable similarity to the discrete power-law Zipf-Mandelbrot heuristic. Mouillot (reference below) mentions Zipf-Mandelbrot in an abstract with reference to RAD but I do not have access to the full document. Mandelbrot, and Taleb for that matter, appear to show some disdain for actually deriving any of these distributions, preferring instead to describe fractal or fat-tail behavior as heuristic functions. Although they have very good insight regarding uncertainty and randomness, they seem to prefer the world of descriptive rather than proscriptive statistics. Many of the diversity research efforts appear to think that modelling only involves heuristic fits of previously categorized statistical distributions to the data (reference here) .  Only the authors of the Nature article have a model (the Neutral theory) to base predictions on, yet that model will likely prove too intricate to get burned into our consciousness.

Why no one else has previously formulated such a simple model as maximum entropy dispersion would require a separate discussion. It may exist somewhere in the literature but I have yet to find it. I realize that my arguments have some abstract concepts, such as equating uncertainty with entropy, that may take some getting use to. Suffice to say, Taleb may have captured the :

“We scorn the abstract, we scorn it with a passion.” from The Black Swan

As any software developer understands, the right abstraction often helps to clean up complexity. It just takes the right insight to get to that abstraction.

1. Igor Volkov, Jayanth R. Banavar, Stephen P. Hubbell and Amos Maritan, Neutral theory and relative species abundance in ecology, Nature 424, 1035-1037 (28 August 2022)

   http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/q-bio/pdf/0504/0504018v1.pdf

2. Differential Entropy and Probability Distributions

   http://www.mtm.ufsc.br/~taneja/book/node14.html

3. Towards a general theory of biodiversity

   http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6831/full/410923a0.html

4. A unified theory of biogeography and relative species abundance and its application to tropical rain forests and coral reefs

   http://sciwebserver.science.mcmaster.ca/biology/faculty/kolasa/Hubbell_1997.pdf

5. Sean R. Connolly, Terry P. Hughes, David R. Bellwood, Ronald H. Karlson, Community Structure of Corals and Reef Fishes at Multiple Scales, SCIENCE VOL 309 26 AUGUST 2022

   http://www.reefresilience.org/pdf/1363-Community_Structure_of_Corals_and_Reef_Fishes_at_Multiple_Scales.pdf

6. Species Abundance Patterns

   http://www.life.illinois.edu/ib/453/453lec16spprichness.pdf

7. The Theory of Island Biogeography

   http://web2.uwindsor.ca/courses/biology/macisaac/55-437/lecture9.htm

8. “Extinction most likely for rare trees in the Amazon rainforest“

   http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-08/stri-eml081308.php

9. MOUILLOT D., LEPRETRE A., Introduction of relative abundance distribution (RAD) indices, estimated from the rank-frequency diagrams (RFD), to assess changes in community diversity, Environmental monitoring and assessment, v.63, 2000.
10. Stephen P. Hubbell, Fangliang He, Richard Condit, Luis Borda-de-Agua, James Kellner, and Hans ter Steege, “How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct?“, PNAS August 12, 2008  vol. 105  suppl. 1

    http://www3.bio.uu.nl/peb/staff/personal/htersteege/pdfs/Hubbell%20et%20al%202008%20How%20many%20tree%20species%20are%20there%20in%20the%20Amazon%20and%20how%20many%20of%20them%20will%20go%20extinct%20PNAS%20105.pdf

11. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niche_apportionment_models
12. Simulated geographic variations of plant species richness, evenness and abundance using climatic constraints on plant functional diversity exponential curve describing rates.

    http://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/bgc-theory/index.php/Pubs/2009-ERL-AK-JA-RP-BR

13. The model also has similarities to the Principle of Least Effect, which has both physics and information science origins.




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Drumbeat: February 27, 2023

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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Oil Comfortable Around $80, But Will Demand Rise?

Nobuo Tanaka, head of the International Energy Agency noted Friday that so far this year, the global economic recovery has yet to strengthen demand for oil.



“Demand numbers have not been as strong as the macro economists say the economic recovery has been,” the IEA executive director said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.



Newsom, however, believes that demand could potentially accelerate during the upcoming driving season, slated to begin at the end of May and peak in the summer months from June-July.


Saudi oil drilling to be stable in 2010

Drilling for oil in top oil exporter Saudi Arabia in 2010 is expected to remain the same as last year, industry sources said on Saturday, but state oil giant Aramco would increase gas drilling activities.



Aramco’s focus on gas came as the kingdom continues to step up efforts to meet soaring gas demand and after it completed last year a crude expansion project to boost output capacity to 12 million barrels per day (bpd).



“We see it (oil drilling) stable. We are not increasing, we are not dropping. We are trying to maintain around 100 rigs for the rest of the year,” one source said.


Chevron Secures Shale Exploration Rights in Poland

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday, Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, confirmed that it has secured exploration rights for an additional Polish shale gas concession, although the size of the acreage was not divulged.


A Confucian Mess: Natural Gas Pricing in China

China has a stated goal of increasing its natural gas consumption. But gas only accounts for less than 3% of the country’s primary energy consumption while coal provides more than 70%, a share not seen in the West since the nineteenth century. The paltry gas consumption in China is miniscule even compared to primary consumption levels in Asia and around the world. Gas accounts for about 8.8% of primary energy use in Asia and for about 24% of total energy worldwide.


Analysis: Caribbean Contributes Natural Gas

The Caribbean is not just the birthplace of the steelpan, a beach vacation destination, and home of a spectacular Carnival celebration. The Caribbean islands are also working toward energy independence; however today the islands are predominantly net energy importers.


Environmentalists question coal’s place in Obama policy

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama, a longtime believer in “clean coal,” is launching an ambitious and expensive plan to help the energy industry lock climate-changing gases from coal-fired power plants deep underground.


The Dirty Truth Behind Clean Coal

If you’ve tuned in to the Winter Olympics this past week, you likely sat through repeated showings of a multimillion-dollar public relations campaign paid for by Big Coal regarding the potential laurels of “clean-coal” technology. The premise of the 30-second spot is simple: Coal can be clean and America needs to wean itself off of foreign crude and create jobs back home by tapping our nation’s vast coal reserves.


Solar power’s amazing rise

Think solar panels are relics of Jimmy Carter’s White House? Actually, attempts to harness the sun’s energy date to the Romans, who warmed bathhouses with sunlight streaming through large and strategically placed southern windows. But it was fear of coal shortages in the late 19th and early 20th centuries that fueled interest in solar technology.


Building green

GERMANY—The concept of green buildings started in the 1970s, when the energy crisis and environment pollution became a concern of everybody. Originally, green buildings were built out of the need and desire for more energy-efficient and environment-friendly construction practices. There are a number of motives to building green, including environmental, economic and social benefits. Also known as sustainable design, this concept integrates the building an environment using green practices employed with a design purpose.


Water fallout: Utah’s first nuclear plant won’t float without water rights

The Green River proposal has sparked intense skepticism. Critics ask where the funding will come from, where the electricity will go, and, of course, what will happen to the waste. But the first hurdle is more immediate. In the Utah desert, this possible climate change solution is colliding with one of its projected consequences: water scarcity.


Alternate Reality Game ‘EVOKE’ Uses Gamers to Change the World

To hear exactly what “EVOKE” entails is to immediately be struck by the scope of the venture. It’s at once a pie-in-the-sky project based around empowering people to make positive changes to the world around them, but based around social gaming conventions to lure in people familiar with online games. “EVOKE” is like “World of Warcraft,” but instead of vanquishing orcs you’re fighting hunger; instead of raiding dark dungeons, groups band together to solve the energy crisis. If it sounds like a game with an agenda, that’s because it is.


Nuclear Reactors, Dams at Risk Due to Global Warming

As climate change throws Earth’s water cycle off-kilter, the world’s energy infrastructure may end up in hot water, experts say.



From hydropower installations in the Himalaya to nuclear power plants in Western Europe, energy resources are already being impacted by flooding, heat waves, drought, and more.



Traditionally power plants and energy facilities have been built for the long haul—the circa-1936 Hoover Dam in Nevada is still a major hydroelectric generator.



But in a rapidly warming world, a site that looks ideal when it’s built may be in a much different environment 50 years later. For instance, a facility built on permafrost in the Arctic may collapse due to the melting tundra.


Oil settles near $80 a barrel again

NEW YORK – Oil prices hit $80 a barrel Friday to end a wild trading week that saw prices swing in the opposite direction every day.



Crude barrels have wavered between $70 and $80 all year, and the latest batch of economic reports failed to give a clear picture of when energy demand in the U.S. would pick up.


TNK-BP Seeks ‘Game Changing’ Unconventional Gas in East Europe

(Bloomberg) — BP Plc’s Russian venture, TNK-BP, is considering unconventional gas opportunities in eastern Europe, as hard-to-extract deposits start to “make sense” with available technology and pricing conditions.



“That’s a game changer,” Chief Operating Officer Bill Schrader said in an interview. “It will have an impact globally. As economic activity recovers, that gas will be developed.”


Petrobras project sticks to schedule

Despite recent economic headwinds that forced some rivals to retrench, Petrobras remains on track to launch its biggest project ever in the U.S. in coming months, a senior official with Brazil’s state-owned oil company said Friday.



Petrobras, keeping with its original timeline, is set to begin producing oil by mid-2010 from two ultradeep- water fields in the Gulf of Mexico known as Cascade and Chinook, said Cesar Palagi, a Gulf of Mexico asset manager for the company.


Mexico Aims to Produce 3.3 Million Oil Barrels Daily by 2024

(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s government aims to boost oil production to 3.3 million barrels a day by 2024, the Energy Ministry said.


Western Oil Companies Feel the Heat in Kazakhstan

A consortium of Western oil companies developing a huge natural-gas field in Kazakhstan was slapped with a $21 million fine Friday, the latest step in a pressure campaign that is raising concern among investors in the oil-rich Central Asian state.



The move, against the group developing a field called Karachaganak, is reminiscent of tactics deployed by Russia, which also used penalties and investigations to coerce Western oil majors into giving state companies stakes in their projects.


Nabucco Gas Link to Europe May Secure Turkmen Supply by April

(Bloomberg) — The Nabucco pipeline, conceived to bring natural gas to Europe via Turkey from around the Caspian Sea, may clinch a supply contract with Turkmenistan in April, a partner in the negotiations said.


As Clock Ticks, Nuclear Plant Searches for Leak

VERNON, Vt. — At Vermont Yankee, a nuclear reactor on the ropes, the search for a tritium leak that may doom the plant is proceeding as quickly as possible — which is to say, at a painstaking pace.


Managing Peak Demand With Water Heaters

Most programs for reducing peak electricity demand involve air-conditioners or (in farm states) irrigation. In Idaho, for example, the main power company pays homeowners to allow their air-conditioners to be cycled on and off in 15-minute intervals during some summer afternoons, and farmers are paid to turn off their water pumps during those times.



Water heaters can also be set up to reduce strain on the power system. Dan Tepfer, who works on “demand response” issues for the Kandiyohi Power Cooperative, a small utility in central Minnesota, said that customers are paid $12.50 per month to take part in a program that allows the water heaters to use electricity only at night — between 11 p.m. and 7 a.m. During those hours, the utility has plenty of spare electric capacity — unlike the daytime, when people run their computers and dishwashers and other gadgets.


How Will Global Warming Affect Regional Climates?

While much attention has been given to the potential global impact of climate change, less has been paid to how a warmer planet would affect regional climates. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that the global average temperature will rise about 1°C by the middle of the century, but the global average does not tell us anything about what will happen to regional climates, for example rainfall in the western United States or Hawaiian Islands.


Supply and Demand: Climate study looks at risks to water source

Water managers and scientists tracking climate change said Friday that they hope a new $2 million study will produce strategies for dealing with Southern Nevada’s primary water source on the Colorado River if supply dwindles and demand increases during the next 50 years.



The two-year study, which is under way, will look at risks to the supply if temperatures continue to increase as they have in the past decade, said Terry Fulp, the Bureau of Reclamation’s deputy regional director for the Lower Colorado Region. The study is funded by the bureau and the seven Colorado River Basin states.


The US Chamber of Commerce: A record of obstruction on climate action

In 1883, New York faced an environmental crisis, but intervention from the city’s Chamber of Commerce led to the creation of the Adirondack Park - a move that is a far cry from the US Chamber of Commerce today.


Most Credible Climate Skeptic Not So Credible After All

Patrick Michaels has more credibility than your average climate skeptic. Unlike some of the kookier characters that populate the small world of climate denialists—like Lord Christopher Monckton, a sometime adviser to Margaret Thatcher who claims that “We are a carbon-starved planet,” or H. Leighton Steward, a retired oil executive and author of a best-selling diet book who argues that carbon dioxide is “green”—Michaels is actually a bona fide climate scientist. As such, he’s often quoted by reporters as a reasonable expert who argues that global warming has been overhyped. But what Michaels doesn’t mention in his frequent media appearances is his history of receiving money from big polluters.





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Efficiency and Resilience: After Jevons Paradox, the Piggy Principle

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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This is a guest post by Marco Bertoli. Mr. Bertoli has an economics degree from Bocconi University in Milano and a master degree in renewable energy from the Milano Politechnical University.


Energy efficiency is one of the themes most discussed by those who are interested in issues regarding energy and the environment. The key question is how effective these proposed solutions will be. Will these technological solutions labeled as ‘energy efficiency’ (i.e. an increase in power plants generation efficiency, cogeneration, home insulation, more efficient electric motors, cars, light bulbs, etc.) really lead to a decrease in the global demand for energy?

First of all, we should distinguish between two different economic spheres: production and consumption.

With respect to production, the proposed solutions (increases in power plants efficiency, changes to EFF1 electric motors, inverters applied to pumps and motors, improvements in the efficiency of compressed air systems, etc.) will inevitably get caught in the trap of Jevons paradox. We should also remember that industrial development comes from a long history of efficiency increases in the use of productive resources, those being either energy or labor or credit or raw materials. (‘More with less!’ is the claim.)

Resource consumption has continued to increase in the long term, in spite of acknowledged gains in efficiency and productivity. Considering that, the myth of entrepreneurs reluctant to adopt available methods to increase efficiency should be abandoned: in fact, investment in energy efficiency should be considered business as usual.

On the other side, we should also remember that Jevons paradox applies exclusively to the production sphere: the world of the so-called ‘consumer’ behaves very differently. In this regard, the economic literature is still pegged to the Consumer theory developed by economists such as Walras, Pareto and other Marginalists between the late 19th and the early 20th century. This is exactly the same theory studied in Basic Economics courses.

According to Consumer theory, individuals choose the level of commodity consumption which, considering their own income and the price requested, maximizes their own Utility. The key point regarding this theory is that one of the theory’s unproven principles - the axioms - predicts that, for each individual, utility always increases as the consumption of any commodity increases. Ironically, economists call it the Piggy Principle.

In an energy context, let’s consider what happens when an individual buys a more efficient car—the same can be said for light bulbs, home insulation, and so forth. What happens is that, in order to achieve the same level of utility, the individual can consume less energy. However, if the individual is a cute piggy, he/she will not be satisfied with the same utility he/she reached earlier if he/she is able to reach a higher utility for the same expense!

In the figure below, this reasoning is made clear.



For example, this effect is perfectly exemplified when we consider that with a more efficient car, with the same expense, you can take a job further away from home or, with more efficient bulbs, you can get a better illumination by installing multiple lighting spots (the so called ‘Ikea effect‘), or by insulating your house or installing a more efficient boiler, you can increase your indoor winter temperature, going for example from 18 ° C to 22 ° C. This kind of change has really occurred, if we consider that the winter set-point temperature in Italian schools was around 10 C ° in the early 20th century!

To sum up, it is clear that, due to the Piggy Principle, energy consumption is not affected by efficiency improvements in products for families. Furthermore, as a consequence, if energy consumption does not change, neither does pollution from energy-related emissions.

However, this lack of change does not mean that efficiency improvements in consumer products should not be pursued or encouraged. The opposite is to be said!

Efficiency improvements in consumer products in fact have the great advantage of increasing the Resilience level of society. We are referring to Resilience in its engineering sense, i.e. in terms of resistance to rupture forces. Once again, the figure below clarifies this concept: in case of a substantial rise in energy prices, those who invested in efficiency measures are better off in comparison with those who did not. This can be helpful when facing the dilemma of taking part in riots or supporting the next war for resources.



Now let’s focus on another question: are we really piggies? Is it really possible that, in a given period of time, the more we consume the better off we are? The answer is obviously NO! How can you accept as an axiom that individuals, if they could, would drive cars 24/7 the whole year round? Also, how could anyone assume that people, if they could, would be better off with 120 kg of meat per day than if they ate only 1 pound per day? It is pretty clear that the Piggy Principle is a long way from reality.

What we need to admit is that beyond some level of consumption, Utility peaks and then begins to decrease.



This concept is only sketched in some economic texts (Hoffman, Binger). The point beyond which utility decreases is called the ‘bliss point’.

If a bliss point for each individual exists, why do figures show that this is never reached?

As a matter of fact, the consumption rate per individual has kept increasing in Western countries since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Moreover, some studies show that the need for money by individuals is never fulfilled.



Finally, if the bliss point exists, but figures show that individuals never achieve it, the correct question would be: how does it happen that the bliss point for individuals keeps moving further, becoming more and more unattainable? Why did we condemn ourselves to this constant Sisyphean challenge?



Several studies have provided answers to this question—beginning with V. Packard and other critics of  E. Bernays (this is a nice video to start with). Bernays was Freud’s nephew and is considered the inventor of propaganda and advertising modern techniques. Other studies reveal that some products themselves are designed to be ‘addictive’. One example is this research on fast-food conducted by Yale University. Yet another area of study relates to the proliferation of the so-called positional goods; in simple terms, these good are intended to stimulate consumption by leveraging social envy. Nate Hagens has made other studies of interest on the subject.

Going back to the problem of energy demand, we can now consider some of the policies that are proposed by different groups.

Some environmental organizations and movements support ‘halting economic growth.’ These organizations act in a beneficial way by informing the public about the benefits of a more sober life-style and the devastating effects of excessive energy consumption. We could argue that these campaigns help to avoid the constant displacement of individuals’ bliss points.

We know, however, that it is extremely difficult to persuade a critical mass of a population with messages related to sobriety. We also know that the most effective persuader in determining the consumption level of a commodity is the price. Just by relying on price, it is possible to prevent the Piggy Principle from undermining the benefits of efficiency investments.

In regard to that, in recent days, the Dutch government has approved a very interesting proposal: it would replace the current ownership and sales taxes with a road tax by the kilometre (about 3€ cents/km, which, for a 15.000 km/year usage sums up to a total of 450 €!).

This policy focuses on the bulk of the matter: the road tax offsets the kilometric price decline preceived by those buying a more efficient car. So the Piggy Principle can’t take effect and the final outcome is:

• Same mileage covered, so same ‘Utility’ reached by drivers
• Same total expenses for drivers
• Less liters of fuel sold, so less polluting emissions

But the more perverse side effects of this proposal need to be balanced in some way. Since mileage is a good on which the poor spend a higher percentage of their income than the rich, this is a regressive tax that might contribute to increase inequality. In addition, as with every carbon tax, it would be exposed to carbon leakage phenomena becasue of neighboring countries which do not apply it.

Thus, the findings regarding the Piggy Principle and the Jevons paradox lead us to the  conclusion that energy efficiency issues are extremely sensitive. The simplistic solutions based on technology changes ALONE can prove to be a real boomerang.





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Drumbeat: February 26, 2023

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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Like Rome Before the Fall? Not Yet

VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN complains that he is being driven crazy because so many people are betting on America’s demise. Reports of it are not just exaggerated; they are, he insists, ridiculous. Like President Obama, he will not accept “second place” for the United States. Despite the present crippling budget deficit and the crushing burden of projected debt, he denies that the country is destined to fulfill a “prophecy that we are going to be a great nation that has failed because we lost control of our economy and overextended.”



Mr. Biden was referring in particular to the influential book “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” by Paul Kennedy, a British historian who teaches at Yale. Published in 1988, the book argues that the ascendancy of states or empires results from the superiority of their material resources, and that the wealth on which that dominance rests is eroded by the huge military expenditures needed to sustain national or imperial power, leading inexorably to its decline and fall. The thesis seems a tad schematic, but Professor Kennedy maintains it with dazzling cogency. In any debate about the development of the United States, one would certainly tend to side with the detached historian rather than the partisan politician.




US natural gas rig count climbs near 12-mth high

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States climbed by 12 this week to near a one-year high of 905, according to a report on Friday by oil services firm Baker Hughes in Houston.



It was the ninth straight weekly gain and puts the gas rig count at its highest level since March 6, 2009, when there were 916 gas rigs operating.


Report says oil supplies in Fla. waters negligible

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Estimated reserves in Florida waters would provide the United States with less than a week’s worth of oil and have no discernible effect on prices at the pump or U.S. reliance on foreign oil, says a report released Friday as part of a state Senate review of whether a ban on offshore drilling should be lifted.



The report is the latest indication that the push to open Florida waters as near as three miles from the state’s beaches may be waning, at least for this year.


Lights failure throws Chavez into darkness

A televised speech by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was suddenly thrown into darkness when lights failed, at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas.


Japan’s 2nd ‘pluthermal’ nuclear generation set to begin

MATSUYAMA, Japan (AP) - (Kyodo)—A nuclear reactor in western Japan is in the final stage of preparation to become the country’s second for “pluthermal” power generation using plutonium-uranium mixed oxide fuel.


Incentives to rise for home solar arrays

At least 10 times a day Andrew Kin clicks onto the Internet for the pure joy of watching his electricity meter run backward.



The 30-year-old business consultant placed an array of rooftop solar panels on his Los Angeles area duplex last fall, and thanks to a Web site provided by his installer he has watched his monthly electricity bills drop, in real time, from $50 to about $10.


10 questions about the Bloom Energy Server

Bloom Energy is developing a power box for the home too, a development that could fundamentally change the way home users buy energy, if (again) the Bloom box is the real deal. Ten questions to consider.


Ethanol output rises in December: EIA

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. daily ethanol output rose in December for the third month in a row as distillers took advantage of low prices for corn and natural gas, the Energy Information Administration said.



Distillers made 787,870 barrels per day of the alternative motor fuel in December, the last month for which data was available. That was up from 786,400 barrels per day in November, and 740,000 bpd in October.


Belgium offers chickens to waste-cutting households

Residents of a Belgian town are to be offered chickens as part of a campaign to reduce household waste.



The town of Mouscron has 50 pairs of chickens that it will distribute to families with sufficient space to keep the birds in their gardens.



Those who take part in the scheme must agree not to eat the chickens for at least two years, or to give them away.



Local officials are stressing that applicants could gain a supply of free, fresh eggs.


Helping plants fertilize themselves

(PhysOrg.com) — A BYU researcher helped discover a cellular tool some plants use to fertilize themselves. This fundamental understanding is important in the effort to reduce the 88 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer used worldwide every year. That in turn could help reduce fossil fuel use, because 3-5 percent of the world’s natural gas is burned to make nitrogen fertilizer. The research is published in the journal Science.


Oil Industry Booms - in North Dakota

KILLDEER, N.D. — A massive oil reserve buried two miles underground has put North Dakota at the center of a revolution in the U.S. oil industry, a shift that has radically altered the fortunes of this remote area.



Harold Hamm, chief of Continental Resources, one of the biggest producers at the Bakken Shale in western North Dakota. He is pictured in April at an oil rig near Watford City, N.D.



The Bakken Shale deposit has been known and even tapped on occasion for decades. But technological improvements in the past two years have taken what was once a small, marginally profitable field and turned it into one of the fastest-growing oil-producing areas in the U.S.



The Bakken Shale had helped North Dakota oil production double in the past three years, surging to 80 million barrels in 2009—tiny relative to the more than seven billion barrels consumed by the U.S. every year, but enough to vault the state past Oklahoma and Louisiana to become the country’s fourth-biggest oil producer, after Texas, Alaska and California. If current projections hold, North Dakota’s oil production could pass Alaska’s by the end of the decade.



“Most people felt like they could kind of write off the oil industry in the U.S., and that’s just a long way from the truth,” said Harold Hamm, chairman and chief executive of Continental Resources Inc., one of the biggest Bakken producers. “The fact of the matter is that a lot of people quit looking for oil.” Continental reported Thursday that its North Dakota oil production doubled in 2009 and would continue to grow rapidly this year.


Mexico oil output falls amid delay on reforms

Mexico’s oil production continues to fall from year-ago levels as the government struggles to implement hard-fought energy reforms designed to boost exploration.



January crude production was 2.615 million barrels a day, a 2.6 percent decline from 2.685 million in the same month of 2009, state-run oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, known as Pemex, reported Thursday.



The bright side is that January output was the highest level in nine months, though still a significant drop-off from the record annual average of 3.4 million barrels a day in 2004.


Pemex Production Fell at Slowest Rate in Two Years

(Bloomberg) — Petroleos Mexicanos’s oil output fell 2.6 percent in January from a year earlier, the smallest decline since December 2007 as the state-owned oil company pumped more crude from onshore fields.


US Misses Deadline for Offshore Drilling Study

The Obama administration failed to meet a deadline for submitting a court-ordered analysis of the environmental effects of offering new leases to drill in Alaskan coastal waters, the oil industry said Thursday.


Russia Making Oil Inroads Through Siberian Pipeline

Refiners across Asia, including Unipec and Exxon Mobil, have warmed up to Russian ESPO crude barely two months after shipments began, raising eyebrows from Riyadh to Rio de Janeiro as producers vie for leadership in the world’s fastest-growing oil market.


Nigerian refineries back online

ABUJA, Nigeria (UPI) — Nigerian petroleum officials said the resumption of activity at two refineries would ease fuel shortages plaguing the oil-rich country.



Levi Ajuonuma, a spokesman for the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., said the Kaduna and Warri refining companies resumed production after regular maintenance, Nigeria’s Next newspaper reports Friday.


Fuel shortage brought out the best and worst in people

THAT THE petrol crisis has revealed our over dependence on cars will not surprise many on the island.



However, what is surprising is how even a temporary petrol scarcity has impacted on so many areas of peoples’ lives.



An informal survey of readers’ experiences, by the Cyprus Mail has shown how various sectors, such as from tourism, healthcare and education, suffered from a lack of infrastructure or provision for such an occurrence.


Rig Shortage Delays Ugandan Drilling Programs

A shortage of drilling rigs is hampering appraisals and drilling activities in oil fields in Uganda’s Block 2 and Block 4B, the senior geologist at the petroleum exploration and production department said Friday.


Lower Gas Prices Create Competition for Coal, BP’s Ruehl Says

(Bloomberg) — Lower natural gas prices are creating competition with coal for U.S. power generation, BP Plc Chief Economist Christof Ruehl said.



“Gas can compete with coal as an input fuel for power generation again,” Ruehl wrote in an article in Foreign Affairs published on the journal’s Web site this week. “Consumers will benefit if the price of natural gas is progressively delinked from the price of crude oil.”


BP and Shell face new shareholder revolt over tar sands

Shareholders at BP and Shell will get the chance to vote at upcoming AGMs on whether to force oil giants to come clean on their Canadian tar sands involvement.



Institutional investors including The Co-operative Asset Management and Rathbone Greenbank have co-signed a ‘special resolution,’ which would force the two companies to fully disclose and justify their involvement in Canadian tar sands.


Australia: Dreams of statehood are buried in a sparsely populated area

THIS week’s announcement by federal Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson that the commonwealth’s preferred site for a national radioactive waste depository is Muckaty station in the heart of the central desert foregrounds a bitter truth about Northern Territory politics.


FACTBOX-U.S. nuclear units seeking license renewal

(Reuters) - A total of 59 nuclear reactors in the
United States have obtained 20-year license extensions from the
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission since 2000, according to the
Nuclear Energy Institute, a trade association. No applications
have been rejected.



Currently, 19 renewal applications are under NRC review and
20 other reactors have indicated they will apply for extensions
before 2017.


A curious blend of doom and optimism

Former green Stewart Brand’s new book proves a surprisingly useful source of arguments and facts against green dogmas. But critics of environmentalism should still be wary of him.


Using tech to save the planet

In 2007, Starks set up AMEE (Avoidance of Mass Extinction Engine) with the UK government as his first client. The goal: to provide a neutral aggregator that could pull together all of the standards, all of the methods used to do calculations, and all of the raw data to provide the most detailed and accurate picture possible of how we consume our planet’s resources.


The futility of alternative energy in the midst of hyper-population growth

But let’s return to the phrase, “…and keep our economy growing.” That means to keep our population growing in order to create more production, consumption and use of natural resources. What those politicians fail to tell you: our non-renewable energy resources dwindle while our population accelerates on its way to adding 100 million people in the next 30 years.


Toxic towns: People of Mossville ‘are like an experiment’

For decades, Mossville residents have complained about their health problems to industry, and to state and federal agencies. Now with a new Environmental Protection Agency administrator outspoken about her commitment to environmental justice, expectations are growing.


Oil era not to end in coming decades - Shafranik

LONDON, February 26 (Itar-Tass) -The oil era will not end in the coming decades, Yuri Shafranik, President of the Council of the Russian Union of Oil and Gas Producers, has said in an exclusive interview with Itar-Tass in London after his report at the British Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House). He believes the “oil peak”, in the form in which it is described by Western analysts, is hardly probable.



“Naturally, a peak and a recession will come some day, but not in the form of ‘up and down.’ Some day energy production will be stabilised, and not because of oil, but because of other energy sources, like shale gas, liquefied gas, nuclear and hydrogen power engineering … Those energy sources will occupy their niches, because they offer no competition to oil. No one will lay a gas pipeline to tents of skin and bark, in which people live in the tundra, or to highland villages. Other energy sources will be used there. This is why I have long preferred the idea of stabilized oil production to the idea of an oil peak.”


Europe to need Russian gas for years to come - Shafranik

LONDON (Itar-Tass) — Despite all alternative technologies, Europe will need Russian gas for a long time to come, Yuri Shafranik, President of the Council of the Russian Union of Oil and Gas Producers, has said in an exclusive interview with Itar-Tass after he made a report at the British Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).



“The greatest amounts of gas are delivered by gas pipelines, but the production of liquefied gas is developing, offering competition to the traditional natural gas. Of course, this competition does not make us happy. Nevertheless, gas consumption in Europe will continue to grow. The only problem is the dynamics of that growth,” Shafranik said. In his opinion, “the growth will not be great, because Europe is taking effective measures for introducing energy saving technologies and is confidently mastering other energy sources, including alternative ones. And still, Europe will need our gas for a long time to come. This is why the Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines, which are a supplement to the existing ones, are quite promising projects.”


Suicide bombers strike in heart of Kabul; 17 dead

KABUL – Insurgents struck in the heart of the Afghan capital Friday with suicide attackers and a car bomb, targeting hotels used by foreigners and killing at least 17 people and wounding dozens, police said.



The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attacks, which Afghan President Hamid Karzai said were aimed at Indians working in Kabul.


Venezuela Plans to Keep Oil Production Levels Steady

OPEC member Venezuela has no plans to increase to oil production levels near term, a top official said Thursday.



“We have a firm decision not to increase production,” Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said. “We believe it isn’t necessary to modify anything.”


Spanish driller joins race for Falkland Islands oil bounty

Spanish-Argentine oil group Repsol YPF said yesterday it plans to start drilling for oil at the end of the year in the Falklands basin near the Falkland Islands, which are claimed by Britain.


China oil company inks gas exploration deal with Thailand

XI’AN: A State-owned oil company from Northwest China’s Shaanxi province has inked a deal with Thailand to explore for natural gas in parts of the Khorat Basin, an oil-rich region 280 kilometers from Bangkok.


UK: Jump in energy group profits prompts call to cut prices

Calls mounted for widespread cuts in energy bills yesterday after Centrica revealed record results at British Gas following a 58% leap in profits.


Centrica warns of higher gas and electricity prices

Roger Carr, Centrica chairman and until recently head of Cadbury, cautioned that a combination of higher wholesale energy prices this year and the huge investment needed to ensure security of supply and meet environmental targets meant the group was in a “very different commodity price environment.”


Why is Bloom Energy Lying to Us?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m extremely excited about Bloom Energy. I honestly think that their technology is a good thing for the world and that it might very well revolutionize the power infrastructure in America and throughout the world. And yes, it will create jobs and make a select few people very rich.



In fact, I think it’s so revolutionary that it doesn’t need to be inflated by false or misleading claims.


Will Google Charge Your Electric Cars?

“Electricity is the new vehicle fuel,” explains Dr. Will Kempton, Director, Center for Carbon-free Power Integration, University of Delaware. He is confident that the U.S. electric grid can support millions of electric cars that are likely to be added in the next decades. He observes that the U.S. total grid load is about 417 GW. If all U.S. cars will be converted to V2G plug-ins with an average of 15 kWh per vehicle, they would provide 2,865 GW. A U.S. fleet of electric vehicles could provide 7X entire electricity needed in U.S.


China’s ‘Overcrowded’ Solar Sector Faces Lower Demand, More M&A

(Bloomberg) — China’s “overcrowded” solar power industry faces lower demand this year from Germany, the biggest buyer of the technology, and an increase in the number of mergers and acquisitions, according to Yuanta Securities Co.



Revenue may fall 40 percent in the second half of 2010 after the German government agreed this month on draft legislation to reduce subsidies to renewable energy users, said Min Li, a Hong Kong-based energy analyst at Yuanta Securities.


European take-up of small cars drives down average CO2

Increasing take-up of small, low-CO2 cars, boosted by national scrappage schemes, is helping to drive down average CO2 emissions in Europe. So says JATO Dynamics, which has released new data showing that volume-weighted average CO2 emissions across all models and segments fell by 7.9g/km last year, with over half of all cars sold in Europe now emitting less than 140g/km.


Mammoth iceberg could alter ocean circulation: study

An iceberg the size of Luxembourg knocked loose from the Antarctic continent earlier this month could disrupt the ocean currents driving weather patterns around the globe, researchers said Thursday.



While the impact would not be felt for decades or longer, a slowdown in the production of colder, dense water could result in less temperate winters in the north Atlantic, they said.


From ocean to ozone: Earth’s nine life-support systems

We have already overstepped three of nine planetary boundaries and are at grave risk of transgressing several others.


Global warming ‘may cut deaths’

The high number of people who die in Ireland during the winter months - particularly as a result of respiratory disease and heart failure - may reduce thanks to global warming, an all-Ireland conference on the health implications of climate change was told today.


OPEC Output Reaches 14-Month High on Saudi Gain, Survey Shows

(Bloomberg) — The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased crude-oil production to a 14-month high in February, led by a Saudi Arabian gain, a Bloomberg News survey showed.



Output rose 125,000 barrels a day, or 0.4 percent, to an average 29.17 million barrels a day, the highest level since December 2008, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. The January production total was revised 45,000 barrels a day higher.



OPEC cut its production quotas by 4.2 million barrels to 24.845 million barrels a day beginning in January 2009 as fuel demand tumbled during the worst global recession since World War II. The group left the targets unchanged at a Dec. 22 meeting in Luanda, Angola. Ministers are next scheduled to gather on March 17 in Vienna.



“At $70 there is really no incentive for OPEC to cut production,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “OPEC should be worried because rising production and economic uncertainty isn’t the recipe for a bull market.”


Oil hovers above $78 amid mixed crude demand signs

Oil prices have bobbed between $70 and $80 for most of the last six months as investors mull growing crude demand in developing countries such as China offset by flagging consumption in developed countries.



Even a cold winter in the U.S. has failed to boost demand for heating oil.



“The absence of any sustained seasonal draw in heating oil inventories is still striking,” Barclays Capital said in a report. “The inventory overhang remains stubbornly high.”


Oil Set for Monthly Gain as Economy Recovers, Stockpiles Drop

(Bloomberg) — Crude oil is poised for the biggest monthly advance since October as the U.S. economy starts to recover and fuel inventories fall.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week the U.S. economy is in a “nascent” recovery. The U.K. emerged from recession in the fourth quarter at a faster pace than previously estimated, a report today showed. The amount of crude stored in tankers fell to 25 million barrels this month from levels of more than 80 million barrels last year, Poten & Partners said.


Tanaka warns of downside risk to oil

There is more downside risk to oil demand than upside risk, the International Energy Agency’s head Nobuo Tanaka said today.



“In terms of the oil demand, it is more the downside possiblity,” Reuters quoted Tanaka, as saying to a two-day oil market forum in Tokyo.


Oil May Reach $81 Next Week, Passes ‘Cloud’: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) — Crude oil prices may rise to $81 a barrel within the next week, according to indicators on a Japanese charting method called Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, or “one- glance cloud chart,” said Mitsubishi Corp.


Did ‘unsafe’ natural gas release lead to power plant explosion?

Enough natural gas to fill a basketball arena was released just before an explosion at a Connecticut power plant, say federal investigators, who call it an ‘unsafe’ practice.


Sarkozy’s Refinery Gamble Pushes Up Closure Cost for Total

(Bloomberg) — French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s intervention in Total SA’s plan to shut a refinery near the northern port of Dunkirk may have raised the cost of the closure for France’s largest company.



The government’s bid to delay the plan until after regional elections next month backfired, as unions widened a strike across Total’s refineries and pushed France to the verge of fuel shortages this week. The government was concerned about the political fallout from the closure, which risked the livelihoods of about 400 sub-contractors.


BP Seen Investing More Than $2B in Oil Sands Project

BP PLC is expected to invest more than $2 billion in Value Creation Inc.’s oil-sands project in Alberta, beating out rival bidder India’s Reliance Industries Ltd. (500325.BY), according to an industry source.



Though the final terms could change, at this stage in the negotiations BP is expected to pay $500 million for a 75% working interest in Value Creation’s oil-sands project plus a commitment to invest an additional $1.6 billion to help develop the project, according to the source.


Statoil Ordered by Nigerian Court to Set Aside Crude Revenue

(Bloomberg) — Statoil ASA, Norway’s biggest oil and natural-gas producer, was ordered by a Nigerian court to set aside all revenue from its stake in an oil field following a claim from a local businessman.


BG, Eni Oil Venture Faces Kazakh Tax, Contract Review

(Bloomberg) — Kazakhstan is preparing tax claims against the BG Group Plc and Eni SpA-led Karachaganak project, and may challenge the production-sharing agreement as the government seeks a stake in the oil field.


Indonesia Bank Row May Hinder Cut in $11 Billion Fuel Subsidies

(Bloomberg) — Indonesia may delay raising energy prices as a dispute over a 2008 bank bailout divides President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s coalition, PT Bank Danamon said, undermining efforts to rein in almost $11 billion in subsidies.


Sempra Plans to Exit Commodities Venture With RBS

(Bloomberg) — Sempra Energy, owner of the largest U.S. natural-gas utility, said it plans to exit the remaining parts of a commodities-trading joint venture it has with Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.



Selling its stake in North American gas and power trading would dissolve the venture and free up cash for stock buybacks and investment, the San Diego-based company said today in slides posted on its Web site. Staying in the venture would have required the company to issue about $2 billion in equity, Chief Executive Officer Don Felsinger said.


Are Investors Tough, Blind or Crazy?

The eurozone is on the brink of chaos. A host of countries are trembling on the brink of sovereign default. Many people believe the US can’t service its debts. California is sinking into the mire. Nobody knows how Japan services its mighty deficit. China is in protectionist mode. People are worrying about peak oil again. And the England football team is heading to the World Cup without a recognised left back.


Hummer in a Peak Oil-Fearing Era: Why China Couldn’t Buy the Brand

General Motor’s failure to sell off its Hummer brand to Chinese manufacturer Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machines highlights the country’s hyper-awareness of its growing energy appetite.



The Chinese government’s decision to scuttle the deal suggests it’s worried whether the global oil supply can meet the country’s energy demands in the long-term. China wants to promote efficient, gas-sipping cars, not massive SUVs with poor fuel economy.


Odierno requests more combat forces in Iraq — beyond the Obama deadline

In a move that could force President Obama to break his vow to get all combat troops out of Iraq by August of this year, his top commander in Iraq recently officially requested keeping a combat brigade in the northern part of the country beyond that deadline, three people close to the situation said Wednesday.


FPL’s Hay Relies on Wind as Rate Case Clouds Utility Outlook

(Bloomberg) — FPL Group Inc. became the largest U.S. electricity producer by investing $11 billion in wind and solar power around the country. Those holdings are more critical to the bottom line after a utility rate ruling in Florida dimmed earnings prospects at the company’s flagship unit.


Sales of ethanol-free gasoline

The tow truck driver seemed sympathetic as he wrote out the receipt at the repair shop. It sounded to him like another car that wouldn’t run due to a faulty fuel pump, or maybe the fuel injectors. He had towed many of them after Oregon mandated 10 percent ethanol in pump gasoline beginning in January 2009.



Thanks to legislation presented by local state Reps. Bruce Hanna and Tim Freeman, Oregonians can now choose more conveniently to opt out of ethanol fuel.


German wind power firm to withdraw from Taiwan

TAIPEI (AFP) – Germany-based InfraVest, the largest private wind power company in Taiwan, said Friday it will withdraw from the island because it does not have confidence in the government’s energy policies.



InfraVest said a newly announced government purchasing price for wind power was below the cost of producing it, forcing the company to concentrate on mainland China instead.


World’s Biggest Power Plan May Be Thwarted by Congo

(Bloomberg) — A plan to build the world’s biggest power complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo may never happen because the government is too indecisive, the head of a venture that had planned to invest $5.2 billion said.


Skipper unveils world’s biggest solar-powered boat

KIEL, Germany (AFP) – A skipper hoping to become the first to sail round the world using solar power said his catamaran could carve a wake for pollution-free shipping as he unveiled the record-breaking yacht Thursday.


Spaceship Earth is running out of fuel

It has almost become impossible to read a story about energy without finding the word “sustainable” used at some point. We all have some basic understanding of what is meant. The current supplies of oil and natural gas are limited and those new fields being found are increasingly expensive to maintain. Therefore, our current pace of using up the supply of fossil fuels is not sustainable, or will not be for very long. That discussion is generally focused on peak oil.



Often, this basic definition is followed by someone’s favorite solution for maintaining economic growth in the face of such diminished supply of energy. Sometimes, these solutions are reasonable, like an increased use of wind and solar. Sometimes they pose a technological challenge with promise of a future energy supply, such as biofuels from algae. Others so defy rational analysis that they could exist only in a bad sci-fi movie.



The focus on energy, as important and immediate as that is, allows us to ignore the very basic notion of what it would take to be truly sustainable. Some have tried to explain this with the analogy of a spaceship.


Only crisis will convince climate deniers, audience told

Crop failures and famine may ultimately convince people who still deny the world’s climate is changing.



But even then, a Lethbridge audience was warned Thursday, some leaders may refuse to act. But the longer politicians and the energy industry try to postpone real change, the higher the price to be paid by Canada’s next generations.



Students and experts at the University of Lethbridge debated “tipping points” during a mid-day forum, as part of the “Peak Week” examination of oil and energy issues facing Albertans. While scientists around the world are reporting climate change data almost daily, guest speaker Thomas Homer-Dixon said many politicians and industry-backed “think tanks” are still refusing to believe it.


“The future of our cities lies in their integration with the environment”

A conversation with Daniel Lerch, author of Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty, to understand how we can build cities that are resilient to climate change and able to meet their own energy needs without depending on oil.


Pacific nations vie to create OPEC-style tuna cartel

KOROR (AFP) – Leaders of eight Pacific nations responsible for a quarter of the world’s tuna catch vowed Thursday to conserve stocks of the fish and increase their own financial return from the lucrative industry.



Despite their waters producing much of the world’s tuna, the impoverished nations receive only three to four percent of the wholesale value of the catch, which is mainly controlled by foreign companies.


Wal-Mart Unveils Plan to Make Supply Chain Greener

Wal-Mart, the nation’s largest retailer, announced on Thursday that it would cut some 20 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions from its supply chain by the end of 2015 — the equivalent of removing more than 3.8 million cars from the road for a year.



The company plans to achieve that goal by focusing on popular product categories with the highest embedded carbon — milk, bread, meat, clothing — and by pressing its suppliers to rethink how they source, manufacture, package and transport those goods. Essentially, suppliers are being asked to examine the carbon lifecycle of their products, from the raw materials used in manufacturing all the way through to the recycling phase.


Vancouver Olympics going for the green

Reporting from Vancouver, Canada - As is normally the case for top city officials during the Olympics, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson has a car and driver assigned to shepherd him through the whirl of the Winter Games.



But the 45-year-old former organic farmer, who earlier ran the Happy Planet juice company, has shown up for most Olympic events as he always does: on his battered but serviceable mountain bike, suit pants tucked into his socks.



Since he became mayor in December 2008, Robertson has doubled Vancouver’s bicycle infrastructure budget, set landmark electric-vehicle-charging standards for new buildings, and expanded the city’s “car-free” days.


Clearing the Air at American Ports

The Teamsters union and environmental activists have formed an unlikely and outspoken alliance aiming to clear the air in American ports, and perhaps bolster the Teamsters’ ranks in the process.


Climate Scientists Possible Criminals, Says Sen. Inhofe

Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) has called for leading climate scientists to face criminal charges for their role in “Climategate,” the scandal that has cast doubt on the validity of man-made global warming theories.


UN to review controversial climate panel

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AFP) – The United Nations said Friday it would conduct an independent review of its Nobel prize-winning climate panel, whose credibility has been hit by errors in a key report on global warming.



The UN’s plan was announced as environmental experts at an international meeting hailed the opportunity to make progress on climate change after last year’s Copenhagen talks ended in chaos and urged India and China to come on board.


Road Transportation Emerges as Key Driver of Warming in New Analysis from NASA

SIn a paper published online on Feb. 3 by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Unger and colleagues described how they used a climate model to estimate the impact of 13 sectors of the economy from 2000 to 2100. They based their calculations on real-world inventories of emissions collected by scientists around the world, and they assumed that those emissions would stay relatively constant in the future.



In their analysis, motor vehicles emerged as the greatest contributor to atmospheric warming now and in the near term. Cars, buses, and trucks release pollutants and greenhouse gases that promote warming, while emitting few aerosols that counteract it.



The researchers found that the burning of household biofuels — primarily wood and animal dung for home heating and cooking — contribute the second most warming. And raising livestock, particularly methane-producing cattle, contribute the third most.





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FTSE 100 ends choppy week on a high note, Rightmove soars to all-time high

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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The FTSE 100 ended the week on a high note after rebounds for miners and rises for banks while among the midcaps property website Rightmove soared to an all-time high on record results.

The FTSE 100 finished up 76.3 points, or 1.5%, at 5354.5 after a volatile week which left it barely unchanged on the previous Friday. Results from support services group Serco propelled it to the top of the gainers board, up 6.1% to 553.5p, but figures from Lloyds Banking Group left it down 4.4% at 52.5p, the top FTSE faller.

The top spot among the midcaps went to property website Rightmove as its shares rose 37p, or 6.2%, to an all-time high of 635p. It cheered investors with record profits and predictions that estate agents will continue to increase their spending to market on the website as they jostle for business in a tight housing market.

Managing director Ed Williams said Rightmove continued to benefit from the changing advertiser and house hunter habits that have put pressure on local newspapers in recent years. Although last year saw around a fifth of estate agents close down and a big drop in the number of properties being marketed, overall 2009 beat Rightmove’s expectations.

“To say it turned out better than expected would be a massive understatement,” said Williams, whose company had been bracing for a torrid market after 2008 suffered the “worst property market situation since the second world war.”

Rightmove also flagged up growth in lettings listings and is calling 2010 the “year of the landlord” as more house sellers choose to move into rented homes because of short supply of places to buy and as they wait to see where an uncertain housing market is headed. More competition among agents on rentals means more pressure to market, hopes Rightmove.

Colt Telecom was headed the other way, down 3.5p, or 2.6%, to 133.5p, after it posted a drop in 2009 revenues. The company tentatively predicted that sentiment will start to improve this year among clients who have delayed spending on IT systems but added that “a note of caution is required regarding the pace and timing of macro economic recovery.”

Analyst Morten Singleton at Collins Stewart said the revenue figures were slightly below forecasts but Colt’s long-term story “remains on track”. He comments:

“Colt is a solid business in the downturn and geared very much for the recovery which should see continued growth in managed services combined with stronger growth in data and a minor recovery in voice to yield stronger revenue growth and associated operational leverage to the business.”

Further down the market Luminar was under pressure after its part-owned rival nightclub operator 3D Entertainment was forced to call in the administrators.

Luminar, itself home to a chain of nightclubs, has a 49% stake and loan investment in 3D Entertainment, owner of the Chicago Rock Cafe brand and employer of more than 1,000 people. For Luminar, the administration adds to pressures from high youth unemployment and its shares fell back on the news before recovering somewhat to close down 0.25p, or 0.9%, at 28p.

Finally, Aim-listed shares in Petra Diamonds sparkled after the rare gem it discovered in South Africa last September was snapped up by a Hong Kong jeweller for the highest price on record for a rough diamond. Petra rose 4p, or 6.8%, to 62.75p after it announced the “507 carat Cullinan Heritage” was sold for $35.3m with experts predicting it would eventually end up in the hands of a Chinese collector.

• Rightmove
• Market forces column
• Serco
• Luminar
• COLT Telecom
• Lloyds Banking Group
Katie Allen
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Luminar under pressure after its part-owned rival 3DE calls in administrators

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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Its website claims “We’re in the business to create an environment that will make you laugh until it hurts…”, but nightclub operator 3D Entertainment was unlikely to raise a smile from major investor Luminar today as it was forced to call in the administrators.

Luminar, itself the home of a chain of nightclubs, has a 49% stake and loan investment in 3D Entertainment, owner of the Chicago Rock Cafe brand and employer of more than 1,000 people. For Luminar, the administration adds to pressures from high youth unemployment and its shares fell back on the news before recovering somewhat to close down 0.25p, or 0.9%, at 28p.

Luminar conceded in a statement:

“The proceeds of the administration are likely to provide only a minimum return to Luminar, however, in due course the proceeds are expected to cover the bank loan guarantee of £2m which Luminar provided to 3DE in July 2009.”

It also reassured investors that:

“3DE has traded independently of Luminar since 2007 and there is no risk that property leases within the 3DE estate will become the liability of Luminar. Similarly, the 3DE business is not consolidated with the trading results of Luminar, and there is no impact on the operational trading results of the group.”

• Luminar
Katie Allen
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Colt Telecom points to improving confidence among clients

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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Colt Telecom has tentatively predicted that sentiment will start to improve this year among clients who have delayed spending on IT systems but its shares have fallen after it unveiled falling revenues in 2009.


Colt’s results showed that an 11.6% in voice revenues more than offset rising data revenues, leaving total revenues down 3.2% at €1.6bn. It said “voice revenue continued to be impacted by competitive pressures and reductions in mobile termination rates.” Still, tight cost controls helped underlying earnings rise 4.9% to €318.7m.

But the shares have sold off and are down 5p, or 3.7%, at 132p in late afternoon trading following the revenues numbers amd as Colt remains cautious on its outlook.

Chief executive Rakesh Bhasin says:

“Whilst financial markets responded positively in 2009, we still believe that a note of caution is required regarding the pace and timing of macro economic recovery. Whilst our business plan does not rely on a rapid economic recovery, we believe that confidence will start to return during 2010 to those customers who have delayed or reduced their IT expenditure plans. In these uncertain times the strength of our balance sheet means we are well placed to respond to opportunities and to benefit from an economic upturn.”

Analyst Morten Singleton at Collins Stewart said the revenue figures were slightly below forecasts but Colt’s long-term story “remains on track”. He comments:

“Colt is a solid business in the downturn and geared very much for the recovery which should see continued growth in managed services combined with stronger growth in data and a minor recovery in voice to yield stronger revenue growth and associated operational leverage to the business. The strong balance sheet offers the prospect of synergistic acquisitions to accelerate the operational gearing effect. And then you have a third tier of potential value with the pan-European fixed infrastructure looking very attractive for a potential bid approach by a European mobile player, or international operator looking for European presence.”

• COLT Telecom
Katie Allen
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Building consultant Baqus rattles investors with cancelled contracts warning

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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More evidence today of the grim state of Britain’s construction industry as building consultancy and quantity surveyor Baqus is forced to tell the market its results will miss expectations, partly because of government cutbacks.

Baqus, which works on a range of projects from hospitals and schools to shopping centres, says in a trading update ahead of its results for the six months to 31 December 2022 that “trading in the construction industry has continued at a subdued level.”

The Aim-listed shares are down 0.375p, or 10.3%, at 3.25p after Baqus’ warning and news that is down intend to recommend a dividend payment “at this stage”.

The company says:

“Projects in both the public and private sectors have been subject to delay and in some cases cancellation largely due to government cut-backs and a lack of bank lending for many construction schemes. Added to this, increased competition and reduced overall levels of activity have led to a general reduction in margins.”

“As a result of these tough trading conditions, the group’s results for the year ending 30 June 2023 are now expected to be below current market expectation. This is in part due to deferred or cancelled projects in the public sector and private sector schemes held up by the reluctance of funders to commit. The delayed projects are still expected to come to fruition, albeit not in the group’s current financial year. In addition, exceptional costs associated with a reduction in the group’s cost base will impact the results.”

Baqus seeks to reassure investors, however, that its positive cash position and focus on retaining the core of its skilled workforce make it “well positioned to weather the current trading environment and benefit from any improvement in the sector.”

Its interim results are due out on March 24.

Katie Allen
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Record-breaking rough diamond sale boosts Petra

February 27, 2023 by admin  
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A Hong Kong jewellery company has paid the highest price on record for a rough diamond to snap up London-listed Petra Diamonds‘ rare stone discovered at its South African Cullinan mine last autumn.

Petra’s Aim-listed shares are up 1.75p, or 3%, at 60.5p after it announced the “507 carat Cullinan Heritage” was sold today for $35.3m, the highest sale price on record for a rough diamond. The diamond was bought by Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Company from Hong Kong but the purchaser has yet to reveal its plans for the gem.

Petra said the high sale price reflected the “incredible rarity of the diamond, which combines its remarkable size with exceptional colour and clarity.” At 507.5 carats it is the 19th largest gem diamond ever discovered.

The Cullinan Heritage was recovered in September 2009 from Petra’s Cullinan mine in South Africa which has produced the majority of the world’s most famous and important diamonds, some of which form part of Britain’s crown jewels..

Chief executive Johan Dippenaar comments today:

“It is fitting that The Cullinan Heritage should achieve a sale price of $35.3 million, the highest sale price on record ever achieved for a rough diamond, as it has the potential to produce one of the world’s most important polished gems. The sale proceeds further bolster Petra’s treasury and will be invested in the growth of our core assets.”

Analysts at Ambrian said the sale price was $10m above its estimates. They comment:

“This is clearly excellent news, and represents $10m additional cash above our estimate for the diamond, or an extra 1.8p/share.”

Katie Allen
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