May 23, 2012

Nasdaq ‘embarrassed’ by Facebook glitches – reports

The chief executive of Nasdaq OMX said he was “embarrassed” after technical glitches caused Facebook’s widely-anticipated IPO to be delayed Friday, according to several news reports.

Man slides after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s moves outlook on the hedge fund to negative

S&P says one in three chance of a downgrade if Man’s performance continues to be weak

Shares in Man have been volatile for some while on worries about the hedge fund’s performance, and they have fallen again after negative noises from Standard & Poor’s.

The credit ratings agency moved its outlook on the hedge fund from stable to negative. It said there was a one in three probability of a downgrade if its weak performance, particularly at its key AHL fund, and client outflows continued. Peter Lenardos at RBC Capital Markets said:

S&P states that the stable outlook could be restored if Man returns to sustained net sales, investment performance is consistently strong and supportive of enhanced future fund inflows, and management acts in a way that adequately balances the priorities of bondholders and shareholders. Our forecasts do not envision either sustained net sales or “consistently strong” investment performance.

We expect Man Group’s share price volatility to persist. We continue to believe that news flow, AHL performance and share price trends could present attractive short-term trading opportunities.

Meanwhile Numis repeated its sell advice, with analyst David McCann saying the business was worth no more than its liquidation value, which it put at between 50p and 75p a share. He also dismissed recent talk that Man could find itself as a bid target:

Whilst it is dangerous to completely rule the possibility out, our feeling is that the possibility of being acquired is remote, unless it were to trade below liquidation value. Anyone acquiring Man today has exactly the same problem as shareholders- no one really knows with any degree of certainty how AHL will perform and therefore what the largest part of the group is worth.

Also, Man has been considered by many to have been in “stressed” share price territory on a number of occasions over the last five years and has often been linked with an “imminent” approach. If anyone was really interested, surely they would have played their hand by now.

Man shares are currently 1.7p lower at 76.85p.

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FTSE 100 suffers worst week since August with £80bn wiped off value of UK’s top companies

Investors fear Greek eurozone exit after new elections called, while Spanish banks under pressure

Leading shares suffered their worst week since August last year as the eurozone crisis escalated, with growing talk that Greece could leave the single currency and Spain coming back into the firing line.

As leaders of the G8 industrial nations met to discuss the situation, the FTSE 100 fell 70.76 points to 5267.62, its fifth day of losses and its worst level since 25 November last year.

Over the week the leading index lost 308 points, with just short of £80bn wiped off the value of Britain’s top companies according to FTSE Group. News that Greece would call a new election after failing to form a government added more uncertainty to an already volatile situation, with anti-austerity party Syriza threatening to tear up the country’s bailout agreement. June’s vote is now widely seen as a referendum on euro membership. Meanwhile there were more signs of contagion in the rest of the eurozone, with ratings agency Moody’s downgrading 16 Spanish banks amid concerns about the country’s debt levels.

So financial shares fell sharply lower, on concern about their exposure to Spain and the rest of the eurozone, with Lloyds Banking Group losing 1.7p to 25.95p, Royal Bank of Scotland falling 1.07p to 19.99p and Barclays closing 5.8p lower at 176.1p.

Talk that China might offer support to the eurozone by buying government bonds, and suggestions of a ban on short selling European shares, provided a minor fillip during the day, but this soon wore off.

Nor did shares receive much benefit from the much-hyped – but delayed – Facebook flotation, with Wall Street down around 40 points by the time London closed.

Mining shares subsided after data showed house prices in China fell 1.2% in April, the second monthly decline in a row. Goldman Sachs also downgraded its growth forecast for second quarter GDP in China – a key consumer of commodities – from 8.5% to 7.9%. Xstrata dropped 41.5p to 914.7p and Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation fell 16p to 457.9p. But Mexican precious metals miner Fresnillo added 28p to £13.58 after a positive annual meeting statement.

The problems at hedge fund group Man continued after Standard & Poor’s moved its outlook from stable to negative. It said there was a one in three probability of a downgrade if its weak performance, particularly at its key AHL fund, and client outflows continued. Man closed 3.25p lower at 75.3p. Peter Lenardos at RBC Capital Markets said:

S&P states that the stable outlook could be restored if Man returns to sustained net sales, investment performance is consistently strong and supportive of enhanced future fund inflows, and management acts in a way that adequately balances the priorities of bondholders and shareholders. Our forecasts do not envision either sustained net sales or “consistently strong” investment performance.

We expect Man Group’s share price volatility to persist. We continue to believe that news flow, AHL performance and share price trends could present attractive short-term trading opportunities.

Meanwhile Numis repeated its sell advice, with analyst David McCann saying the business was worth no more than its liquidation value, which it put at between 50p and 75p a share. He also dismissed recent talk that Man could find itself as a bid target:

Whilst it is dangerous to completely rule the possibility out, our feeling is that the possibility of being acquired is remote, unless it were to trade below liquidation value. Anyone acquiring Man today has exactly the same problem as shareholders – no one really knows with any degree of certainty how AHL will perform and therefore what the largest part of the group is worth. Also, Man has been considered by many to have been in “stressed” share price territory on a number of occasions over the last five years and has often been linked with an “imminent” approach. If anyone was really interested, surely they would have played their hand by now.

ITV dipped 3.05p to 78.85p after analysts at HSBC put an underweight rating on the broadcaster, although the bank raised its price target from 74p to 83p:

ITV has short-term momentum but there are long-term concerns. Estimate revisions have been driven mainly by non-core operations and other one-offs. Our leading indicators predicted the UK TV advertising spend decline in the second half of 2011 and remain negative; each 1% decline in advertising takes around 5% off earnings per share.

But BT bucked the trend, adding 1.5p to 204p following an upgrade from analysts at Berenberg, who raised their rating from hold to buy and their price target from 220p to 245p. The bank said:

Having revisited our cost analysis for BT, we conclude that consensus estimates for March 2013 are too low and we believe that BT will beat expectations by more than 2%. Against a backdrop of most other incumbent operators facing increasing operational pressure and threats to forecasts, we believe this will continue to make BT a safe haven.

Among the mid-caps, the London Stock Exchange added 27.5p to 992p after it announced a 30% rise in full year profits. In a buy note James Hamilton at Numis said:

[This was a] strong result from the LSE, 6% ahead of consensus excluding exceptional gains. With the benefits of the acquisitions largely still to flow through the profit and loss account, we believe the LSE offers good value at less than 10 times historic earnings.

Invensys slipped 0.6p to 211p but outperformed the market after analysts at UBS issued a buy note on the engineering group and raised their price target from 225p to 235p following Thursday’s final results. They said:

[The] results were mixed. Invensys operations management margins were on the weak side even excluding problematic nuclear contracts and if we adjust for issues in Australia, rail growth was still non-existent. However, as with any Invensys results day, we were braced for worse. There were in fact a lot of positives too – operations management order book coverage, the reiteration of 15%-17% medium term rail margins and the improved cash flow.

Invensys has been the subject of bid speculation in recent weeks, with China’s CSR, Siemens, ABB and General Electric all mentioned as possible predators. But UBS said:

We are not believers in M&A rhetoric. While the probability of an offer appears to have risen (given recent press reports) we would not count on it.

But Lamprell continued its decline, down 7.5p to 121p. The oil services group issued a surprise profit warning on Wednesday, just two weeks after two directors sold shares. Yesterday HSBC cut its target price from 440p to 215p and said:

Potential return supports an overweight rating but we don’t see a quick recovery.

Finally Icap slipped 3.6p to 338.4p after the interdealer broker agreed to buy the junior stock exchange run by Plus Markets for a nominal £1. Plus, whose quoted companies include Arsenal, Stieg Larsson publisher Quercus and brewer Adnams, said earlier in the week it would close down its exchange operation after failing to find a buyer, but subsequently it confirmed reports that Icap was interested in the business.

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Mitchells & Butlers hit by April showers but hopes to meet City profit forecasts

Company says search for new chief executive continues, with two candidates on the shortlist

April’s heavy rain put people off going to Mitchells & Butlers pubs, the company admitted, as it also struggled with rising food and fuel costs.

So half year profits at the group, whose brands include Harveter and All Bar One, dipped by £1m to £42m, and executive chairman Bob Ivell said in a conference call:

We own a lot of places with big gardens. The wet weather does tend to suppress them.

Like for like sales in the first 28 weeks of the year rose by 2.7% but with the effect of April’s weather, the rise was 2% in the 33 weeks to 12 May. But it expects to meet market expectations for its full year figures – City consensus is for profits of around £169m – despite the current challenging conditions.

The company has still not found a replacement for chief executive Adam Fowle, who left in March 2011, but Ivell said he had a shortlist of two potential candidates. Mitchells is also looking for further non-executives for the board. In January more than 14% of shareholders protested against the re-election of its two existing non-executives, who represent the interests of the company’s biggest shareholder Joe Lewis.

Mitchells’ shares have lost 4.9p to 241.1p in the wake of the results, and Paul Hickman at Peel Hunt said:

Sales performance reduced in the second quarter and reduced further in the current period. Steady progress on investment continues though overall returns have slipped. Cost-saving measures are in progress, but at significant cost.

Still lacking a chief executive and unlikely to pay a dividend soon, Mitchells looks a less than compelling investment.

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Stocks: Worst week of the year

Stocks closed out an ugly week. Despite initial euphoria surrounding Facebook’s public debut, the social network’s shares barely popped above its offering price and failed to inspire investors to buy into the broader market.

Enough on Facebook! Buy Google or Apple

Facebook is finally trading. And even though the stock didn’t explode out of the gate, the company is still worth more than $100 billion. It shouldn’t be.

Anti-social: Zynga tumbles after Facebook IPO

Social media stocks just aren’t feeling the love, despite Facebook’s highly-anticipated stock market debut.

Facebook: Many mutual funds already have a stake

Whether you do or don’t like Facebook, you may already own a piece of the social media site: over the past year, nearly 70 mutual funds have snapped up pre-IPO shares on private markets.

Facebook trading sets record IPO volume

Facebook’s stock market debut finally came and went — but for all the breathless hype, shares ended right near their offering price.

FTSE falls to new six month lows on eurozone woes, but BT bucks the trend

Concerns about Spain and Greece hit markets again, but telecoms group benefits from broker upgrade

Leading shares are heading lower as the eurozone crisis intensifies, heading for its worst weekly fall since late November.

But BT has bucked the trend, adding 2.8p to 205.3p and topping the FTSE 100 risers, following an upgrade from analysts at Berenberg, who raised their rating from hold to buy and their price target from 220p to 245p. The bank said:

Having revisited our cost analysis for BT, we conclude that consensus estimates for March 2013 are too low and we believe that BT will beat expectations by more than 2%. Against a backdrop of most other incumbent operators facing increasing operational pressure and threats to forecasts, we believe this will continue to make BT a safe haven.

Mining groups Antofagasta, up 3p at £10.29, and Fresnillo, 9p better at £13.39 regained some ground, and Icap, the interdealer broker continued its recent rise, up another 1.4p to 343.4p.

But otherwise it was another bleak start to the day, with the FTSE 100 down 48.36 points to 5290.02 in the wake of Fitch’s downgrade of Greek sovereign debt, amid growing talk of its possible exit from the eurozone.

Moody’s downgrade of 16 Spanish banks has put more pressure on the sector, with Royal Bank of Scotland down 0.61p to 20.45p and Lloyds Banking Group 0.75p lower at 26.9p. Barclays has fallen 2p to 179.9p.

But building materials group Wolseley is leading the losers, down 65p at £21.24 on worries about the outlook for its US business after disappointing data from the world’s largest economy on Thursday.

Among the mid-caps, the London Stock Exchange has added 52.5p to £10.17 after it announced a 30% rise in full year profits. In a buy note James Hamilton at Numis said:

[This was a] strong result from the LSE, 6% ahead of consensus excluding exceptional gains. With the benefits of the acquisitions largely still to flow through the profit and loss account, we believe the LSE offers good value at less than 10 times historic earnings.

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