Drumbeat: September 28, 2009

Interview with Sadad al Husseini—“The Facts Are There”

Sadad: I’ve been tracking the number of projects, globally, for a long time both in the Middle East and elsewhere—Russia, Brazil, west coast of Africa, and others. A lot of this information is in the public domain, so there is no mystery there. The International Energy Agency recently reported on the same numbers. The bottom line is that there are not enough projects. There is not enough new capacity coming on line, within say the next five to six years, to make up for global declines. And that’s assuming a very moderate level of declines—6% to 6.5% for non-OPEC, perhaps a 3.5% to 4% decline rate for OPEC.

Even at these modest decline rates, we are basically going to see a shortage of capacity within two to three years. We’re being lulled by this current excess capacity, which has more to do with lower demand than anything to do with supply. So we do have a problem in the near term. In the longer term it’s even worse because in the longer term the lead time to discover, develop and put on line production runs into 10 years. And there isn’t enough being done in the long term as well. So it’s both a short and a long-term problem.

Heinberg: Is the Global Oil Tank Half-Full, Is It Half-Empty…or Are We Running on Fumes?

Let me summarize: the industry needs oil prices that are both stable and near economy-killing levels in order to justify investments necessary to possibly replace depleting reserves and overcome declining production in existing oilfields (I say “possibly” because we have insufficient evidence as yet to conclusively show that new discoveries enabled by expensive new exploration and production technologies can offset declines in the world’s aging giant oilfields).

Should this picture lead the viewer to come away with reassured thoughts of “No worries, happy motoring?” Or does this look more like a portrait of peak oil?

Crude Oil Falls Below $66 as Dollar Strengthens, Equities Slide

(Bloomberg) — Crude oil slipped below $66 a barrel as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities and declines in equities raised concern a recovery in fuel demand may stall.

Crude slumped more than 8 percent last week, the biggest weekly drop since the week ending July 10, as U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly rose. Oil fell today as the dollar gained, limiting the commodity’s appeal to investors as an inflation hedge. Stock markets in Europe and Asia traded lower.

Price of gas down 7 cents in the last two weeks

CAMARILLO, Calif. – The average price of regular gasoline in the United States has dropped nearly seven cents over a two-week period to $2.52.

That’s according to the national Lundberg Survey of fuel prices released Sunday.

Heating Oil Prices Cool Down as Winter Approaches

Homeowners who heat with oil were feeling sticker shock just over a year ago as prices soared close to $5 a gallon, but they’re breathing easier now.

Heating oil prices are barely half what they were in summer 2008 — and while prices might go up and even exceed last winter’s, nothing indicates any severe spike this winter.

Those who heat with natural gas and propane can expect dramatic drops, while electric heat is projected to cost slightly less.

Natural Gas Feint Means Prices Poised to Plummet 19% on Storage

(Bloomberg) — The steepest rally in natural gas prices since 2006 is coming to an end as the 400 salt caverns, depleted oil fields and aquifers used to store the fuel in the U.S. reach capacity for the first time.

Stockpiles may surpass the record of 3.545 trillion cubic feet by as much as 350 billion cubic feet this fall, Energy Department estimates show. Gulf South Pipeline Co. says its fields in Louisiana and Mississippi are so full that customers will have to pay penalties for exceeding their limits. With no place to go, producers will be forced to dump excess fuel on the market.

Europe, Gazprom in talks on reduced gas supply-paper

MOSCOW (Reuters) – European consumers of Russian gas, including Germany, Italy and Turkey, plan this year to take up to $2.8 billion less gas than stipulated in take-or-pay contracts with Gazprom, a Russian newspaper reported.

Consumers plan talks with Gazprom to avoid payment after a sharp drop in gas demand this year and are citing Russia’s lenience with Ukraine as a precedent, business daily Kommersant reported on its front page on Monday.

Gasoline Faces Risk of ‘Meltdown’, PVM Says: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) — Gasoline prices face a potential “meltdown” should futures close below a pivotal correction point at $1.5823 a gallon in New York, according to technical analysis by PVM Oil Associates Ltd.

Gasoline “has very much led the way lower with early negative signals,” PVM said in a report today. On Sept. 25, the fuel “entered a danger zone” after dropping below $1.6053, a significant threshold during its advance this year, according to the broker. The next level of support is $1.5823.

Aramco looks to develop Brazil’s offshore oil

A senior official from Brazil has said that state-owned hydrocarbons giant Saudi Aramco is among the companies interested in helping the South American country to develop its pre-salt oil reserves.

India May Attract $5 Billion in Oil, Gas Exploration Round

(Bloomberg) — India may attract as much as $5 billion in work commitments in the country’s largest auction of oil and gas areas as explorers such as BP Plc, BG Group Plc and Santos Ltd. seek new deposits, a government official said.

Kuwait’s crude oil exports to China plummets 35.8pc in August

Crude oil exports from Kuwait to China fell by 35.8 percent in August to 122,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the same period in 2008, reported the nation’s government news agency KUNA on Monday, citing official data released by the Chinese government.

Russia to raise oil export duty to $240.7 per ton from October 1

MOSCOW (RIA Novosti) – Russia will raise oil export duty on its benchmark Urals blend from $238.6 per metric ton to $240.7 per metric ton from October 1, following trends on global oil markets, the government said on Monday.

Aramco offers 6th fuel oil lot in firm market

Saudi Aramco has offered a sixth-straight cargo of fuel oil within the past three weeks, in the face of the tight Middle East and East Asian markets and following outages at its refineries, traders said on Monday.

NY Moves Closer to Natural Gas Drilling Upstate

NEW YORK, NY September 28, 2009 —New York State will move a step closer this week to opening up the Catskills and the Southern Tier to natural gas drilling, as a key environmental assessment is made public.

Nigeria: MAN Challenges FG On Refineries

Lagos — As clock ticks towards the December 2009 deadline promise to provide the nation 6,000mw electricity power supply, the Federal Government has been urged to make the country’s refineries work to reduce heavy dependence on importation of petroleum products, in particular, Low Pour Fuel Oil (LPFO) and Automated Gas Oil (AGO).

Winter gas shortage looms large for Iran

Iran will be short of around 200 million cubic metres per day of gas this winter due to rapid growth in demand, a daily newspaper reported Iran’s oil minister as saying.

Iran has bought its first diesel cargoes for six months in September to supplement gas it is burning in power plants.

The country sits on the world’s second-largest gas reserves but has failed to develop them fast enough to meet domestic demand.

Iran fires off long-range missiles in latest test

(CNN) — Iran test fired two types of long-range missiles on Monday, including the two-stage Sajil, state-run Press TV reported.

U.S. Is Seeking a Range of Sanctions Against Iran

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is scrambling to assemble a package of harsher economic sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program that could include a cutoff of investments to the country’s oil-and-gas industry and restrictions on many more Iranian banks than those currently blacklisted, senior administration officials said Sunday.

Fisking Scientific American on Peak Oil

I have now read the Scientific American article. It is perhaps one of the more, if not the most insidious of the recent media pieces on peak oil, in that it leverages the truth about technological advances in oil exploration and extraction to create a falsehood: that these technological advances increase aggregate flows in world supply. It was bad enough that the NYT piece invoked Kashagan as an example–a howler of an example really–because of course Kashagan was discovered in 2000 and not a drop of oil will flow until 2014 (at huge expense and after many western oil cos have abandoned the project after huge losses). That the NYT would invoke Kashagan as an example of recent discoveries is almost absurdist.

Do you want to know why Iran has a nuclear program?

It’s called peak oil, and it has global consequences.

Buy local, think global — with oil subsidies?

Back to the subsidy issue: With or without that subsidy, Americans would have demanded more oil than we could have produced. Without the subsidy, more of the production meeting that demand would likely have been outside the U.S. in regions where environmental standards are much lower. So — is the subsidy a net benefit for the environment?

The Age of Wisdom?

The need to address climate change is going to transform entire industries, our infrastructure, and our lifestyles. But will this transformation be driven by wise policy, oil depletion, or a real climate crisis? Will it be a benign process that creates new jobs and technologies and leaves our societal structures intact, or will it cause violent economic and social disruption that threatens the fabric of democratic societies?

San Francisco holds hearings on Peak Oil and the consequnces affecting Qulity of Life

I attended some of the first meetings linked to Peak Oil in San Francisco and the consequences facing humanity all over the world. While, San Francisco has been on the fore front of such issues – other Nations like England, Germany, Denmark too have vetted such pertinent issues and come out with many practical solutions. Abuse of the world’s natural resources stems from GREED and lack of Spirituality. The First Nations and the First People had it right for thousands of years. Contemporary society has just woken up and is trying to figure out how to resolve waste and especially the consumption of vast resources of petroleum – gradually running out.

Sustainable farm practices needed

AMES, Iowa — Less than 1 percent of Americans are full-time farmers and the average age of those individuals is around 57, said Richard Heinberg, a leading expert in sustainability education.

“We don’t even know who’s going to be growing our food in 20 years,” Heinberg said.

Sustainable Farming – Finding a New Way to Farm

How food arrives at the supermarket or the local restaurant is largely a mystery to most consumers. It is taken for granted that upon arrival at the supermarket, everything on your list will be on a shelf somewhere in the 20 or so aisled store. But the constant supply of beef, chicken, pork, and farm raised fish to market has a direct effect on our planet and our health. The amount of resources necessary for just one hamburger (6 gallons of water) is simply staggering. Here is a little information to help you ponder your diet, your health, and the health of the planet.

The Spirit Thrives at Perma Detroit

Caring for mother earth goes beyond recycling garbage and replacing carpet with bamboo flooring. On the east-side of Detroit and in midtown Detroit, there are magickal gardens growing and uplifting the spirits of the people who tend to them and benefit from their harvest. Fueled by the will of the spirit, sweat and bold determination, Perma Detroit has magickally transformed urban decay into natural beauty. And that’s the gospel truth. I spoke with Perma Detroit about the power behind this wondrous transformation.

Saving the World, Without U.S. Consumers

Victorian consumers invested in their possessions, and treated them as heirlooms to be handed down through the generations. Think of your great-grandmother’s china cabinet full of cut glass. She loved it, treasured it, and hoped that you and your children would, too.

The Victorian “treasure chest” idea gradually began to disappear in the late 20th century with the birth of a “throwaway” culture. As retailers competed primarily on price, newer generations of consumers began to see their purchases as being temporary. A new family in 1870, 1925, and 1955 scrimped to furnish their home or apartment, investing in things they would keep for a lifetime. In contrast, today’s newlyweds shop at IKEA for starter furniture, expecting to upgrade again and again through life, exacting a price on the environment.

Farmers Become Guardians of Ethanol Plant

A group of farmer-owned ethanol plants in Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska have teamed up become the guardians of a former VeraSun facility in Janesville, Minn.

Pakistan plans biodiesel project to reduce imports

ISLAMABAD: To overcome the shortage of petroleum products and reduce its import bill, the government of Pakistan plans to present a pilot project “Jatropha Plantation and Production of Biodiesel” with an estimated cost of $1.6m, official sources said here yesterday.

Palm Oil Drops the Most Since June, Tracking Crude Oil Losses

(Bloomberg) — Palm oil tumbled the most in more than three months after a leading industry buyer said prices must slump 13 percent from current levels to stoke demand for food and fuel applications and as crude oil fell.

China’s Threat Revives Race for Rare Minerals

HONG KONG — A Chinese threat to halt exports of rare minerals — vital for high-performance electric motors in wind turbines, hybrid cars and missiles — appears to have backfired.

With control of more than 99 percent of the world’s production of these minerals, China could try to use a ban to force other countries to buy the crucial motors for these high-tech end products, instead of just the minerals, directly from China.

But other governments and businesses reacted quickly as word of the proposed ban spread late this summer.

The Chinese threat has touched off a frenzied international effort to develop alternative mines, much as the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo’s repeated increases in oil prices prompted a global hunt for oil reserves.

Garbage economics

You might not think of the dump as a leading economic indicator, but garbage men are some of the first to know when there’s a downturn.

Because when people buy less stuff, they throw out less packaging.

…So far, the reduced volume hasn’t forced Xcel to idle any plants, Kuhn said. Instead, they are running below capacity. Because the French Island plant also burns waste wood chips, it can switch fuels if it runs out of trash.

Enter the Recession’s Waiting Room

Few of the employees of Katana Summit, a wind-tower manufacturer, saw it coming. On that day in early August, and in another round of cuts a few weeks later, about half of the plant’s 195-person payroll was eliminated, a shock that came with one notable consolation: the executives said they hoped to hire everyone back soon.

They seemed to mean it, too. As Kevin Strudthoff, the chief executive, explained that day, this was a “temporary layoff,” but there was a limit to what Katana could promise. The company, privately held, said it landed a multimillion-dollar deal last year to provide 225 wind towers to a turbine maker that it declined to identify. But when the credit crisis hit, wind-farm developers found it all but impossible to raise money, killing demand for wind towers.

E.ON, RWE Rise as Merkel Win May Extend Nuclear Life

(Bloomberg) — E.ON AG and RWE AG, Germany’s biggest utilities, jumped the most in a month in Frankfurt trading on speculation Chancellor Angela Merkel’s favored coalition government will scrap a nuclear phase-out law.

U.A.E. May Pick Nuclear Plant Contractor by Year End

(Bloomberg) — The United Arab Emirates may award the contracts by year end to build nuclear power plants in the country, according to an official at Areva SA.

The selection of contractors for the $40 billion project to build two reactors by 2017, scheduled this month, has been delayed, Bertrand Castanet, Areva’s corporate vice president for business development, said today at a workshop in Doha. A decision may be made in this year’s “final quarter.”

Solar Power, Without All Those Panels

THE main way for homes to harness solar power today is through bulky panels added to the rooftop or mounted on the ground.

But companies are now offering alternatives to these fixed installations, in the less conspicuous form of shingles, tiles and other building materials that have photovoltaic cells sealed within them.

Greens criticise home insulation scheme

A high-profile Scottish Government home insulation scheme was “set up to fail”, the Green party said today.

The accusation was made after ministers revealed it will take 66 years to bring Scottish homes up to standard – compared with 10 under rival Green proposals.

Google Earth climate change 3D map unveiled

Google is using its Google Earth mapping tool to simulate on a 3D map of the world the predicted effects of climate change until the year 2100.

Using data provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the search giant created new layers for Google Earth showing the range of expected temperature and precipitation changes under different global emissions scenarios that could occur throughout the century.

Climate change: A history of fear

Scientists and journalists have been warning us of impending climate disasters for more than 100 years. Many of today’s global warming believers probably don’t even realize their claims are not original.In the 1930s the media was in a global warming fervor over shrinking Arctic ice.

This global warming movement came on the heels of the great global cooling scare of the 1900s. During that movement, the Las Angeles Times warned the entire human race that it “will have to fight for its existence against cold.”

Nepal feels heat of climate change

KATHMANDU (Xinhua) — The golden apples it once produced were famed in Nepal and across the border area in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China for their luscious taste.

But now, the northern district of Mustang, some 195 km west of Nepali capital Kathmandu, lying in the lap of the Himalayan ranges, is feeling the heat of global warming and the ensuing climate change.

James Hansen, In His Own Words

Dr. James Hansen–scientist, father, grandfather, and activist–is often called the “grandfather of climate change science,” although he eschews the moniker. In the 1970s and 80s, his advanced climate modeling and impassioned pleas for action brought the issue of global warming to the forefront, but since then too little has been done to slow our emissions. Hansen recently sat down with the Earth Island Institute for a taped interview to discuss his legacy and the prospects for a climate bill this year.

Ships, Planes Should Cut Emissions Up to 20%, EU’s Dimas Says

(Bloomberg) — The European Union may propose that the shipping and airline industries reduce emissions by as much as 20 percent over the next decade as part of any new United Nations accord to fight global warming.

Ships would have to cut pollution blamed for climate change by a fifth in 2020 compared with 2005 and airlines would need to trim discharges by 10 percent over the period under a proposal for the UN being prepared by EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas.

E.U. Alone and Lonely on Carbon

BRUSSELS — Carbon trading put the European Union in the environmental vanguard.

Since 2005, the trade bloc has operated the world’s only continentwide system that puts a cap on greenhouse gas emissions and that requires major polluters to hold tradable allowances.

But the system has also been the most “costly climate policy program in the world,” according to Jürgen R. Thumann, the president of BusinessEurope, a powerful confederation of industry and employer groups.

Climate Envoys Meet Anew as Time ‘Has Almost Run Out’

Bloomberg) — Climate envoys met today in Bangkok with a new sense of urgency, saying negotiators are racing against a December deadline to devise a global deal.

“Time is not just pressing, it has almost run out,” said Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. “But in two weeks, real progress can be made toward the goals that world leaders have set for the negotiations, to break deadlocks, and to cooperate toward concrete progress.”

Met Office: catastrophic climate change could happen with 50 years

An average global temperature rise of 7.2F (4C), considered a dangerous tipping point, could happen by 2060, causing droughts around the world, sea level rises and the collapse of important ecosystems, it warns.

The Arctic could see an increase in temperatures of 28.8F (16C), while parts of sub Saharan Africa and North America would be devastated by an increase in temperature of up to 18F (10C).

Is 350 the New 450 When It Comes to Capping Carbon Emissions?

When it comes to fighting climate change, pick a number — any number.

Nearly 200 countries have signed a U.N. treaty pledging to avoid “dangerous” climate change. But lately, it seems, “dangerous” is lost in translation. Fifteen years since that agreement took effect, scientists and governments are still grappling with what carrying out its promise means.

World consumption plunges planet into ‘ecological debt’, says leading thinktank

Rich consumers are still voraciously gobbling up the world’s resources, despite the worst recession in a generation, with their appetite pushing the planet into “ecological debt” from today , according to a report by think-tank the new economics foundation.

What’s Wrong With the National Parks?

Natural resources are meant to be used; in fact, every generation has left future generations with more resources than existed when that generation arrived on the planet. Today we have more coal, minerals, and oil and gas, for example, than were predicted would exist a few short years ago. Months ago, many predicted peak oil and a future of declining supplies.

But today we celebrate the discovery of a vast deposit of oil in the Gulf of Mexico, and a huge natural gas find in Pennsylvania and New York. Given what we have accomplished in the natural resources field in past decades, who knows what the future holds. In the meantime, we must use what has been provided for us.

As the business columnist Warren Brookes once remarked, “The learning curve is green.” Thus, it is not government but the free market that yields better and wiser use of the resources available to us.

High tech may pinpoint Antarctica sea rise risks

Studies indicate that in the Eemian about 125,000 years ago, for instance, temperatures were slightly higher than now, hippopotamuses bathed in the Rhine — and seas were 4 metres higher.

“We need to know where the extra four metres came from,” said David Vaughan, a glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), adding that one possibility was that West Antarctica’s ice had collapsed.