John Michael Greer – Green Wizardry: A response to Rob Hopkins
Rob Hopkins is a smart guy, and even though he’s garbled a fair number of the details, his post raises useful points regarding some of the core issues I’ve tried to bring up in the Green Wizards posts.
The first of those is that one of the motivations behind the Green Wizards project is a recognition of the limitations of the Transition Towns project. I’ve discussed my concerns about that movement on several occasions on this blog, and don’t see any need to repeat those comments just now. The crucial point, though, is one that Hopkins himself cheerfully admits: that neither he nor anyone else in the movement can be sure that it will accomplish what it’s trying to accomplish.
That’s a bold statement, and one that’s worthy of respect. Still, it has implications I’m not sure Hopkins has followed as far as they deserve. If the difficult future ahead of us can’t be known well enough to tell in advance what strategies will best deal with it, in particular, it seems to me that it’s a serious mistake to put all our eggs in one basket, whether it’s the one labeled “Transition” or any other.
Oil is clearly a finite resource. It would follow then, that the key issue surrounding discussions of peak production is not whether we will reach a point of maximum global production followed by steady declines, but rather the timing of the peak and the rate of post peak decline. The research carries with a wide range of answers to these questions.
‘Green’ cannot be America’s only goal
Future-Dated Jan. 1, 2072.
The downfall of the U.S. can be traced to a crippling shortage of available energy supplies.
There were other factors: Uncontrolled government spending, and more people living off the government than those paying to support it. And sudden, frenzied worship of the environment, right up to the day we deprived ourselves of the ability to wrest a living from it.
The nation ground to a halt when her cars, trucks, buses, trains, planes, boats and power plants all ran out of fuel. Without transport the nation’s massive urban centers had no food. The stench of uncollected garbage and unburied bodies filled the air and mixed with the smoke of uncontrolled fires. Without fire engines the firemen couldn’t reach the fires and without fuel the pumps were useless.
Analysis: Global Jackup Report Card
Industry consensus among offshore drillers points to stability in the jackup market over the remainder of 2010. Eight months into the year, global jackup utilization of 80% is exactly where we started the year. Utilization has been helped by the strong demand for high-spec jackups as lesser capable rigs have faced their share of headwinds.
Deepwater Drilling Moratorium Hits Louisiana Hard
Both Republicans and Democrats in Louisiana say the federal moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico — put in place after the BP oil spill — is now that state’s biggest problem. US federal government officials and many environmental activists say the temporary ban on drilling is necessary to prevent further accidents. But people in the Gulf region are worried that many of the well-paying jobs provided by the energy industry might leave and never come back.
Landowners Shout `Bingo’ as West Australia’s Mining Towns Boom
The housing shortage in a region that’s one of the world’s biggest suppliers of iron ore and natural gas is driving up costs for companies such as Chevron Corp. and BHP Billiton Ltd. as they mine raw materials to feed China’s industrialization. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, was forced to lease seven-year-old cruise liner MS Finnmarken to house 350 workers at its A$43 billion Gorgon gas project.
How China Could Avert a Water Crisis Without Uprooting 330,000 People
Water needs in the North have forced hundreds of thousands out of their homes as dams expand, but an innovative desalinization solution could spare them.
Saudi Aramco extends bids for Wasit gas plant
KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) – State oil giant Saudi Aramco has extended the closing date for bids to build the kingdom’s largest gas plant, industry sources said on Thursday.
The due date to submit bids for the onshore packages has been pushed to Oct. 24 from a September deadline, sources said.
The Politics of Power Cuts in Egypt
Are Mubarak’s Gas Sales to Israel Partly to Blame?
Technology and development: A growing number of initiatives are promoting bottom-up ways to deliver energy to the world’s poor.
Electric car upswing would crash grid: Toronto Hydro chief
“If you connect about 10 per cent of the homes on any given street with an electric car, the electricity system fails,” Haines told an audience at Ryerson University Wednesday. “It basically can’t handle that load.”
What to do? That’s part of the reason why Toronto Hydro, Hydro One and the Ontario Power Authority have pledged a total of $7 million over the next five years to kick-start Ryerson’s new Centre for Urban Energy.
Americans in the dark about energy use
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Americans aren’t known for their energy-thrift ways. Maybe that’s because they have little idea as to how much energy things use.
While people are generally able to rank items according to energy use – i.e. the dryer uses more than the toaster – they are way off the mark when it comes to gauging by just how much, according to a recent study from researchers at Columbia University and elsewhere.
Example: Most people knew that a laptop computer uses less energy than a desktop. But few knew the lap used one-third the amount.
Eco-author baffled by a violent fan
The “Ishmael” books are aimed at encouraging radical social change — but their author says hostage-taking is definitely not the change he had in mind.
Canada thirsty for new water ethic
In a single generation, Canada has evolved from a from a nation that took great pride in its citizens’ ability to drink from almost any river, stream or lake in the country, to one seriously concerned about water quality and availability now and in the future.
Growing Community Food Systems
Food systems can be a very powerful tool for resilience. In a revolutionary way, you can completely trasform things without people realizing what’s happening–they are aware, but it just makes intuitive sense this way. It’s also not about just going out and fighting the proverbial “man,” or continuing an academic dialogue about what could happen or should happen; you don’t have time for this because you’ve got a lot to do.
So instead of having people just being oppositional and trying to get someone else to make the changes, you have people who are assets to their community, who are making the transformation happen themselves (but being oppositional when they need to be).
Brazil has revolutionised its own farms. Can it do the same for others?
Transition group plans community dinner
HONESDALE, PA — A newly formed group in Honesdale is holding a “Creating Community” potluck dinner on Saturday, September 11 at the Parish House of Grace Episcopal Church at 9th and Church Street in Honesdale from 6 to 8 p.m.
“Everyone’s invited,” said Barbara Lewis, who is helping to spearhead this new local initiative.
The group, which calls itself Transition Honesdale, is inviting individuals and groups who wish to be a part of efforts to raise awareness of sustainable living and the need to build local ecological resilience. It encourages the community to seek out methods of reducing energy usage and dependence on fossil fuels and avoid purchasing products that are shipped over thousands of miles. In many communities, for example, the Transition Towns movement has led to the establishment of community gardens to produce local food and to the development of canning skills.
Post Carbon Exchange #3: Richard Gilbert & David Bragdon
RICHARD GILBERT and DAVID BRAGDON discuss the future of transportation systems as we near the end of cheap oil. What are the solutions? How will we get there? Are we facing the end of the internal combustion engine?
Judge rules against U.S. government on oil drilling
HOUSTON (Reuters) – A federal judge on Wednesday rejected the U.S. government’s request to dismiss an industry lawsuit challenging its deepwater oil and gas drilling moratorium, dealing another blow to the Obama administration.
Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc and other drilling companies sued the administration on June 7 after it first ordered a halt to deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico following BP Plc’s well rupture that killed 11 workers and caused the world’s worst offshore oil spill.
As a result of Louisiana-based Hornbeck’s lawsuit, U.S. District Court Judge Martin Feldman in New Orleans blocked implementation of the drilling ban on June 22.
Oil Trades Below $74 After Falling on Bigger-Than-Forecast Supply Increase
Oil declined as equity indexes slipped and traders waited for signs whether the European Central Bank will extend emergency lending.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may signal at a rate meeting today that policy makers will keep offering unlimited cash to financial institutions through the end of the year. A U.S. government report yesterday showed crude stockpiles increased almost three times more than analysts forecast.
“There are still fears about a double-dip recession in the U.S,” said Roland Stenzel, a crude and carbon trader at E&T Energie Handelsgesellschaft mbH, said from Vienna.
DOE Update: U.S. Crude Oil Production Hits 6-Year High
U.S. crude oil production increased 1.7% from last week. Year-to-date oil output is up 3.8% from the year ago period. Production is now at the highest level since April 2004.
Oil output in Russia fell by 0.8% in August from an all-time high reached in July, to hit a seven-month low, the Energy Ministry said today.
Qatari Oil Rises on Japan’s Record Low Kerosene Supplies
Qatar Marine crude is trading at the highest level in four weeks versus its official selling price as Japanese refiners replenish supplies of kerosene for heating and Saudi Arabia cuts shipments of similar grades.
Qatar Marine for loading in October jumped on Aug. 23 to a premium of 5 cents a barrel relative to the benchmark producer prices, compared with a discount of 8 cents the previous week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The kerosene-rich blend has traded at an average of 9 cents below its official selling price during the past year.
Cuban offshore oil plans gain momentum
Havana, Cuba (CNN) — While the Gulf of Mexico oil spill has sparked debate in America on the merits of deepwater drilling, 90 miles away Cuba’s offshore plans are quietly taking shape.
The country aims to drill seven exploration wells in its share of the Gulf of Mexico by 2014, according to American oil experts who recently met with Cuba’s state oil monopoly Cupet and regulatory officials.
Norway offshore on course for record spend
Statistics Norway said today that oil and gas investments – the core driver of Norway’s economic growth – were on track to set a new record high next year.
Petrobras to Buy Oil From Brazil for $42.5 Billion in Stock
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Latin America’s largest company by market value, agreed to pay the Brazilian government $42.5 billion in new stock for the right to develop 5 billion barrels of offshore oil reserves.
Petrobras, as the state-run company is known, will pay an average of $8.51 a barrel for the oil after almost two weeks of negotiations with the government, according to a regulatory filing yesterday. More than half the oil will come from the Franco field in the offshore Santos Basin, the company said.
Russia to supply 70% of oil to JV in China
Russia will supply about 70 percent of oil at market prices for a proposed joint refinery between Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), Reuters said Thursday, citing a Russian news agency.
Russian gas giant Gazprom saw its profit for the first quarter of the year more than triple on the back of a foreign exchange gain, adding it had cut its net debt by more than 30%.
Statoil CEO Says Canadian Oil Sands `Attractive’ at Current Crude Prices
Statoil ASA, Norway’s biggest energy company, said oil sands are attractive at current crude price levels and the company is working on bringing costs down to proceed with its investments in Canada.
“We’ve had a market lately that has made that type of oil attractive,” Chief Executive Helge Lund said today in an Oslo interview. “Of course the problem two, three years ago with Canada was the costs.”
Weak Laws Bother Iraq Investors More Than Violence as U.S. Goes
Ahmed Jamal says it isn’t primarily Iraq’s violence that deters his company from investing in the country. It is its weak business laws.
“We don’t have factories or warehouses or anything like that,” said Jamal, regional sales manager for Istanbul-based beverage distributor Hayat Su, which brings bottled water to Iraq in trucks and works through a local representative. “The investment laws are not suitable.”
BP to remove equipment at Gulf well by Sunday
HOUSTON (Reuters) – BP Plc expects to remove a failed blowout preventer atop its ruptured Gulf of Mexico oil well by Saturday or Sunday and later plug the leak for good, the top U.S. official overseeing the spill response said on Wednesday.
“We believe in the next 24 to 36 hours, we will enter a weather window that will allow us to proceed,” retired Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said at a briefing in Houston.
BP Tripled Ad Spending After Spill
It will come as little surprise to newspaper readers and television watchers, but BP significantly increased its spending on advertising after the April 20 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill. BP spent $93.4 million on newspaper, magazine, television and Internet advertising in the three months after the disaster, three times what it spent in the comparable period in 2009, the company reported to Congress.
But like many communities in Montana, we may soon share our backyard with a new set of neighbors, and the changes these folks bring will not be so benign. Until recently, the oil and gas industry has been the source of horror stories from Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico: the names of towns like Pinedale, Rifle and Farmington have become shorthand for cautionary tales told with a “thank-God-it’s-not-us” undertone.
Australian leader acquires Aboriginal land
The leader of Australia’s resources-rich western province has been accused of ‘another invasion’ by forcibly acquiring coastal land slated for return to native tribes to build a gas plant.
Colin Barnett, premier of Western Australia state, today said he had started formal proceedings to take the land for Woodside’s Browse liquefied natural gas precinct at James Price Point.
Cairn Greenland ops resume after Greenpeace protest
LONDON (AFP) – Scottish oil exploration group Cairn Energy said Thursday it had resumed operations on a rig off the coast of Greenland after Greenpeace ended a protest.
What a misanthropic bunch of stunts
Figures published by the US Geological Survey in 2008 estimated that there are 90 billion barrels of oil in the Arctic as a whole, enough to provide for the entire world’s current oil consumption for about a year. Of this, about 50 billion barrels may be found around Greenland. Given that Greenland is the biggest island in the world (assuming Australia is a continent), yet has a population of just 56,000, this could be an enormous windfall both for the local communities and for Denmark, which has formal control over the territory.
No wonder that Greenland’s prime minister, Kuupik Kleist, is less than impressed by Greenpeace’s protest: ‘Greenpeace has once again succeeded in impeding Greenland’s opportunities to secure the economic foundation for its people’s condition of life. The Greenland government regards the Greenpeace action as being a very grave and illegal attack on Greenland’s constitutional rights. It is highly disturbing that Greenpeace, in its chase on media attention, breaks the safety regulations put in place to protect people and the environment.’
There’s been a lot of talk about oil this summer. Most of it bad. Devastating, record-setting leaks in the Gulf of Mexico and in Michigan’s Kalamazoo River underscored, once again, the danger of our dependence on crude. Seductively efficient and still relatively cheap, oil provides nearly 40 percent of America’s power. But it’s also a finite resource that presents a very real threat to our environment, economy, security, and health. Given the growing risks and the shrinking reserves, there must be loads of people out there — experts from government, corporations, academia, and the like — hatching plans for a cleaner, safer, post-oil world, right? We asked our expert panel to explain where we are in oil’s troubled lifespan, and whether and how we’ll ever wean the world off its current fossil fuel of choice.
Peak Oil And The German Government – Military Study Warns Of Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis
A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how “peak oil” might change the global economy. The internal draft document – leaked on the Internet – shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.
The dirty topic of peak oil: get ready to reduce your reliance
Wouldn’t it be funny if we spent so long arguing about what to do about climate change that we ran out of cheap oil first? No, it wouldn’t really, it would be catastrophic.
But given the government’s delay in producing an Energy White Paper and the steady backsliding on the need to actually reduce our greenhouse gas emissions in Australia, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. Even the usually optimistic International Energy Agency (IEA) is starting to sound a little nervous.
How Malthus drove the Discovery Channel gunman crazy: The greatest pessimist in economic history has been wrong for 200 years, but he’s still freaking people out
Among the demands of James Lee, the deranged gunman who rampaged through the headquarters of the Discovery Channel in Washington, D.C., before being shot and killed late Wednesday afternoon, was a request that the TV network “develop shows that mention the Malthusian sciences about how food production leads to the overpopulation of the Human race.”
Insane, but perhaps not quite as kooky as it might initially seem. Because when choosing crazy-making prophets of doom and destruction as your inspiration, you could do a lot worse than the late 18th-century economist Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus.
New report shows state highways in good shape
A new report on the condition of the USA’s state highways finds that they are in the best shape they have been in nearly 20 years.
The annual study by the Reason Foundation, a Los Angeles-based, libertarian, non-profit think tank, credits road improvement progress man by states and decreased wear and tear as commuters and commercial truckers drove less during the recession.
Canada’s Renewable-Fuel Regulations Completed, to Take Effect on Dec. 15
Canada said it completed regulations that will require an average renewable-fuel content of 5 percent in gasoline as part of an effort to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
The rules will take effect Dec. 15, the government said in an e-mailed announcement today.
GM moves to trademark ‘Range anxiety’
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — If you’re thinking about buying an electric car but you’re worried about getting stuck someplace when the battery runs out, General Motors has a two words for that.
“Range anxiety.”
The automaker has filed for a trademark on the term. Range anxiety is a major reason car shoppers say they would avoid buying an electric car.
Chevy Volt, Electric Revolution? Or Outta Gas?
The first thing I noticed driving the Chevrolet Volt is that it’s a real car. GM did not kick out the kind of street-legal version of a golf cart like we have seen with previous attempts at making an electric car. The Volt is sturdy and it has horsepower. I had it up to 80 MPH on the test track and given how quiet gasoline powered cars are today, I was hard pressed to notice a difference between the Volt and my last airport rental.
Desertec solar hopes cloud over as support starts to waver
It has been one step forward, two steps back this year for the Desertec solar project, which aims to source 15 per cent of Europe’s electricity supply from the MENA region’s deserts by 2050.
A significant piece of good news for the ambitious €400 billion (Dh1.87 trillion) scheme came in April, when one of its members, Germany’s Solar Millennium, said its 150 megawatt Kuraymat project in Egypt was nearing completion and could serve as a template for other north African solar farms.
Then came the bad news with Algeria’s decision last month not to participate in the Desertec Industrial Initiative, which was formally launched last year by a group of 12 European companies, mostly from Germany. On Monday, Paul van Son, the director of the group, said he was now also concerned about declining German government support for the project.
Fresh Air for Sale, in Hong Kong
HONG KONG — ‘‘Do your feeble breathing skills let you down? Does standing up tire you out?’’ The answer: Buy a breath or two of ‘‘Fresh Air’’ — the ‘‘revolutionary new product’’ that lets you experience breathing ‘‘like the rest of the world does.’’
…‘‘Fresh Air’’ is the new campaign tool of Hong Kong’s Clean Air Network, a nongovernmental group that promotes awareness of, you guessed it, the wretched air quality in this city of seven million.
Green roofs offer antidote to urban heat island effect, say researchers
Researchers at Columbia University have demonstrated that a layer of plants and earth can cut the rate of heat absorption through the roof of a building in summer by 84%.
Welsh biochar facility opens up carbon possibilities for farmers
WALES is set to benefit from a new £180,000 biochar facility which may transform the way the country tackles climate change.
Aberystwyth University is installing a biomass waste recycling unit designed to produce biochar – a charcoal-like substance – that can be used to improve soil fertility and raise agricultural productivity.
How bad are the next few years going to suck?
The hot question in green circles these days is, “what next?” For the last decade, strategy has been built around getting a federal climate bill that would place a cap on carbon emissions. That attempt was supposed to culminate in success this year, but it didn’t, so … what next?
There will be much to say along those lines in coming months. I hope to share words of inspiration and uplift, to stir minds with insight and hearts with passion. To tell great tales of green pastures to come and the heroes who will sail the fleet of righteousness to the golden shores of, uh, the pastures. Just real quick, though, I need to be depressed as hell for a minute.
Prince Charles urges people to wear old clothes
Prince Charles, the heir to the British throne, has urged people to wear more old and recycled clothes, and natural fabrics like him so as to help reduce the world’s carbon footprint and halt climate change. In an article for this month’s ‘Vogue’ magazine, he wrote about his passion for reusing and repairing things. “On the whole, the older some things are, the more comfortable and familiar they become; they can even be adapted to look new in a different context.”
Climate funds shouldn’t divert poverty aid, UN says
The U.N.’s climate chief says poor countries are right to expect that any funding they receive to combat global warming be kept separate from development aid or poverty relief.
Climate change ‘driving a new industrial revolution’
Climate change is driving a new industrial revolution that will reward creative thinking and early investment in green technologies, British economist Nicholas Stern says.
The former World Bank president warned high-emitting countries that fell behind in this global ”green race” to transition to a low-carbon economy could face future trade barriers.
6 global warming skeptics who changed their minds
With 2010 shaping up as the warmest year on record and unprecedented heat waves gripping the planet, global warming skeptics have suffered another blow with the defection of the “most high-profile” member of their camp, author Bjorn Lomborg. But Lomborg isn’t the first doubter to accept the scientific consensus that human carbon emissions are warming the planet and need to be curtailed. Here, a review of several prominent cases:
Report: Climate change threatens historic Jamestown, Va.
Human-caused climate change threatens to flood Jamestown, the first permanent European settlement in what became the American colonies and the United States, says a report Wednesday by environmental groups.
Jamestown Island, the site of the original 1607 settlement, is low enough to be inundated by rising seas and tidal waters — even if the waters do not rise as much by 2100 as scientists predict, according to the report by Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Colorado-based Rocky Mountain Climate Organization.
Al Gore announces appointing experts to study Pakistan floods
ISLAMABAD (APP): President Asif Ali Zardari and Former US vice president Al Gore held a telephonic conversation on Thursday to discuss the situation of recent floods in Pakistan and its possible linkage with the climate change.President Zardari while discussing the causes of floods indicated that the factor of climate change and its impact should also be examined in this regard. He said the international community must take this environmental subject seriously so that solutions could be found out for the overall betterment of the world.
Climate change puts China harvests at risk
PARIS (AFP) – Climate change could reduce key harvests in China by a fifth if the gloomiest scenarios prove true, according to a study on Wednesday.
Publishing in the journal Nature, a team of Chinese scientists say China’s climate “has clearly warmed” over the past half century, gaining 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1960.
