Drumbeat: December 25, 2009
The next energy decade with Dan Yergin
“When you just do the mathematics you see that oil is going to continue through the next decade to be the predominant energy source. You kind of have to divide the world in two. ther’s the industrial U.S. and the other industrial countries. In the last couple of years we’ve reached peak demand. Demand will recover somewhat through the recession, then it will be declining because of demographics and fuel-efficient engines. As populations age they drive less… There’s a focus on energy efficiency to an extent we’ve neer seen before.”
“It’s quite a different picture when you look at emerging markets… As those markets motorize we’ll see more demand.”
Mexico oil output resumes decline in November
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican oil production fell in November after two months of rising output as the giant Cantarell field pumped less and the troubled Chicontepec project again failed to replace lost capacity.
The country pumped 2.553 million barrels per day in November, 5.8 percent less than a year ago and a 49,000 bpd decline from October, data released on Thursday by state oil monopoly Pemex showed.
Steadily declining output from the world’s seventh-largest producer has contributed to concerns that diminishing supply from mature basins will make it even harder for the world to meet growing demand from emerging oil consumers, one of the key factors that underpin long-term oil investment.
It is also causing growing headaches for Mexican policymakers who rely on revenues generated by crude exports to fund around a third of the federal budget.
Although officials say they have come to grips with the dramatic production decline at Cantarell that has sent Mexican output tumbling by nearly a quarter since peaking in 2004, investors remain skeptical given Pemex’s long track record of failing to deliver on promised production stability.
Storm clouds ahead for America; Rise of China, India could cause headaches for superpower
Just two and a half weeks after he was elected and before he even set foot in the White House, U.S. President Barack Obama was presented with a 120- page report that was supposed to help him to peer into the future.
The top analysts at the U.S. National Intelligence Council had spent a year surveying other experts and studying global trends in a bid to give the president-elect an over-the-horizon view of the year 2025.
The international order is in the midst of profound change, the report, Global Trends 2025, concluded.
U.S. economic and political clout will decline over the next 15 years; the world will become a more dangerous place; food, water and energy shortages could spark regional conflicts and, while the appeal of terrorism might decline, terrorists themselves will become more deadly and dangerous thanks to new technology, the report says.
Oil refining’s golden age over? Or not?
The New York Times seems to have put a lump of coal in Hyperion Refining’s stocking today with its article detailing the decline of oil refining in the United States as demand for fuels, both gasoline and diesel, decline.
Partly, that’s due to recession, writer Jad Mouawad, concedes. But he proceeds to show the trend had its start long before the economy’s recent shrinking act.
12 VLCCs store crude, fuel oil off Malaysia
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – At least 12 supertankers holding fuel oil and crude are anchored in south Malaysian waters, up from eight previously, as a shortage of landed tanks spurs a shift to floating storage, traders said.
More trading firms, including Swiss trader Mercuria Energy trading and Southern Petrochemical Co. Ltd., an affiliate of China’s Sinopec Group, are venturing into the residual fuels market to capitalize on potentially firm trade margins.
Venezuelan discontent over power cuts
CARACAS, Venezuela (UPI) — Public discontent over renewed disruptions in electricity supplies reached new levels as the government of President Hugo Chavez announced further cutbacks in business and domestic use of power.
Officials said the cutbacks are a direct result of low water levels in the Guri hydroelectric dam, one of the largest in the world, astride the Caroni River in Bolivar state. In normal conditions the dam generates enough power to meet the needs of most of Venezuela, but persistent drought has forced the shutdown of parts of the complex.
Fuel Crisis: Ihonvbere Advocates ‘Modular’ Refineries
Former special adviser to former President Olusegun Obasanjo on project monitoring and policy implementation, Prof. Julius Ihonvbere, has advocated the establishment of modular refineries by the country’s private sector as panacea to acute fuel shortage especially during festive periods in Nigeria.
Nigeria: 2009, the year of gas turbulence for manufacturers
As the year 2009 wraps up, investors in the industrial sector of the economy have described the year as one of gas turbulence.
In fact, industry watchers say no quarter of the year passed by without a row between members of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) and some of the gas companies .
Power firms may face funding worries, fuel shortage next year
Mumbai: Power companies, which have raised close to $6 billion (Rs28,080 crore) in less than two years, will need to find more money to keep their projects going next year while making sure they line up enough fuel and struggle for critical resources such as land and water.
The sector raised a substantial Rs11,862 crore through initial public offers (IPOs) and institutional placements this year, but analysts said that lenders, who provide the bulk of the money for power projects, will become more demanding next year.
‘India has huge untapped green energy’
Chandigarh: The recent CII-Ernst & Young’s report on ‘renewable energy- the next wave’ points out huge untapped renewable energy resources in the country, which can be used to generate power. As per official estimates, India has a commercially viable renewable potential of around 85,000 mw, which includes wind potential of 45,000 mw, small hydro of 6,000 mw and 25,000 mw of biomass/ bio-energy. The report also adds that the country has potential to generate 20 mw per sq km using solar photovoltaic and solar thermal energy.
Pakistan - Now power crisis to end in the next summer: Pervez Ashraf
KARACHI: Federal Minister for Water and Power Raja Pervez Ashraf has said that power crisis would be resolved in June/July of coming and there would be no power shortfall in the next summer.
Addressing a press conference at Karachi Press Club on Thursday, he said government wants to generate electricity from hydel power, which is a long-term plan. He informed that at present 65 percent of electricity is generated through fuel and the cost will reduce if the same power is generated through hydel source.
Pakistan: Gas management, low pressure irk consumers
LAHORE - Loadshedding and low pressure of gas caused nuisance not only for the domestic consumers but also for the CNG consumers who are now compelled to get fuel for their vehicles in long queues, revealed a survey conducted by The Nation on Thursday.
The consumers condemning the policies of the government protested against the shortage of gas while queuing up to get fuel from the CNG filling stations. Some of them were of the view that getting fuel for their vehicles from CNG filling stations is a painful task because for getting CNG they have to spend hours at filling stations due to which they could not reach their destinations in time.
Pakistan: Consumers complain of outages despite raise in power tariff
As the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has allowed 15 paisa per unit tariff increase to the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC), power consumers in various parts of the city complained of electricity failures on prolonged and frequent basis.
The KESC Abraaj Capital-led management has been sticking to its version that the power utility has been carrying out a maximum of three-hour power load shedding every day on rotational basis.
The residents of Lasbela and Garden areas, among other affected localities of the city, complained that they had been undergoing around eight hours of power outages these days.
Ghana: Gas shortage hits Kumasi
THE POOR state of business and economic activities in the Ashanti Regional capital during this year’s Christmas festivities is expected to get worse following the acute shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the city.
Some taxi drivers have been queuing at filling stations in the Metropolis for the past three days in anticipation of the arrival of some of the product, but to no avail.
Due to the relatively cheaper cost and the economic benefits of the LPG compared with petrol, most taxi drivers have converted their fuel tankers into gas, as a means of saving cost, but the non-availability of the product for the past three days has caused a lot of inconveniences to most drivers and passengers in the Metropolis.
In a staggering lapse of judgment, the National Research Council let its panel of hydrogen advocates publish a deeply flawed report trashing plug-in hybrids.
Last week, the NRC’s “Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies,” which is stacked with hydrogen car experts and advocates, but lacks comparable experts on electric cars or batteries, published a report “Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles” dismissing their major competitor in the “car of the future” race. That would be like letting a Coal with Carbon Capture and Storage Committee or the Nuclear Power Committee write a report on “Transition to carbon-free power — solar energy.”
Iraqi Crisis Report: Farmers Hit Hard Times
Iraq imports more than 80 per cent of its food, according to the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organisation, FAO. Economists and consumers are alarmed by the trend, fearing agriculture may disappear in a country once known as the heart of the Fertile Crescent.
The FAO describes the Iraqi agricultural sector as “under-performing drastically” due to political instability, war, poor infrastructure and years of grinding drought.
Regional gasoline shortage easing
HAGERSTOWN, Md. — Scattered gasoline shortages caused by a record-breaking winter storm eased Wednesday as fuel trucks sidelined by up to 2 1/2 feet of snow resupplied gas stations from Virginia to Connecticut, industry workers said.
The Rumford fireplace - energy-efficiency rediscovered
I confess I didn’t exactly stumble on the Rumford fireplace. It was brought to my attention by Dale King, a builder we’re using who specializes in old homes. One day I was chatting with Dale and bemoaning the fact that fireplaces are so inefficient in terms of energy, and yet, so necessary — at least as far as I’m concerned — in a home – old or new.
“Have you thought of a Rumford?” he asked.
“A what?”
“A Rumford. They’ve been around since the 1800s. They’re amazingly efficient.”
And so I set out to discover just what “a Rumford” is. It turns out concerns about energy efficiency have been around a lot longer than the energy crisis of the 1970s and today’s energy concerns.
In the 1700s, the cost of fuel (wood in those days) and how inefficient it was as a heat source also concerned great men. That’s what prompted Ben Franklin to invent the Franklin Stove in 1742. It’s also one of things that preoccupied a Woburn, Mass.-born physicist named Benjamin Thomson, who later became known as Count Rumford and for whom the fireplace is named.
For Caring Consumers, the Gift of Carbon Dioxide
What says holiday cheer better than a ton of carbon dioxide?
Rebecca Young of Mountain View, Calif., recently opened her mail to find a gift from an old friend in New York City.
“Carbon reduction certificate,” it read. It is good for three tons of carbon emissions that will be “retired” in her name so that no power plant will ever release them into the atmosphere.
To some people, the certificate may be as welcome as a lump of coal. But Ms. Young, a marketing manager for the environmental Web site Care2.com, was delighted.
“I don’t need stuff,” said Ms. Young, 37, the mother of 3-year-old twins. “And as someone who cares about the environment, I thought it was a very kind gesture. It obviously showed that he knew me.”
Resource depletion will reduce emissions
For those who are concerned about the lack of an effective climate change agreement in Copenhagen, there is some consolation. Depletion of global fossil fuels is likely to force the world to move to alternative energy anyway. Higher energy prices will do what trading schemes won’t.
It has generally been assumed that depletion of global fossil fuel resources will come too late to have any bearing on policies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions. However the future will arrive sooner than we think. It is not only oil that is running out. There is not enough coal, at least in the right places, to sustain projected global demand.
Dear Naomi Klein, please stop making my work difficult
Describing the climate debt owed by wealthy countries as ‘reparations’ makes it impossible for the US to take part.
Scientists in drive to make carbon-neutral cities
Scientists are testing the power of trees and plants to clean the air and absorb greenhouse gases in cities in a drive to make new developments carbon neutral.
Experts in Dublin, New York and Tokyo are carrying out similar tests to find out how urban landscapes cope with emissions and heavy traffic.
The aim is to plan more sustainable developments as the fight against climate change widens in the coming decades.
Build-a-Bear takes heat for global-warming webisodes
St. Louis - First, Chicken Little warned children that the sky was falling. And now Build-a-Bear Workshop has warned children that the North Pole could disappear before Christmas.
The Missouri-based company has found itself in hot water, defending an animated series on its website featuring polar bears, penguins and Mrs. Claus, as Santa is warned that global warming is “a serious situation.”
Conservative bloggers reposted the videos online and called for a boycott of the toy company, saying Build-a-Bear should not be presenting a political stance to children.
The price per metric ton of permits to spew carbon-dioxide into the atmosphere fell by $3.30 on the European Climate Exchange between the first day of the climate summit in Copenhagen and the day after its disappointing conclusion as traders reacted to the failure to reach binding targets for future carbon emissions.
The decline — which put the price of the benchmark futures contract dated December 2010 at $18.20 per ton — reflects the European market’s deflated expectations that the meetings would lead to a treaty to lower emissions ceilings and boost the price of permits.
The depressed price of the emissions permits also suggests that despite years of diplomatic efforts, the real world — where people and businesses buy energy to make things, move things and stay warm — still operates as if people can spew carbon more or less at will.
Passengers will pay for carbon, airlines warn
DOMESTIC air travellers face higher fares to cover the cost of airlines’ greenhouse gas emissions - estimated at $100 million or more - if the Federal Government’s emissions trading scheme is passed by Parliament next year, leading airlines warn.
And that, they claim, could hurt the Australian tourism industry, which employs about 500,000 people.
Climate change ’scare tactics’ won’t work, warns expert
A LEADING researcher into attitudes on climate change has claimed Government scare tactics are only increasing public scepticism about global warming.
Dr Lorraine Whitmarsh, who has carried out extensive research into public mistrust on the issue, says scaremongering to convey environmental messages is not effective.
Instead she argues low carbon lifestyles - that can save people money and have long term health benefits as well as helping slow climate change - should be heavily incentivised.
Where There’s Smoke … There’s a Trade-In
There are some 10 million wood stoves in use in the United States, according to the E.P.A., and while the agency has set new emissions limits for those made after 1990, most are older.
Those stoves use more wood and emit up to 10 times more particle pollution than newer ones, according to the E.P.A.
In California, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District has imposed wood-burning bans on 14 days so far since November 2008. People who rely exclusively on wood heat are exempt, but one of them, Sandy Clark of Woodacre, Calif., said she felt singled out nonetheless.
“I get nasty notes from someone here in town on my woodpile,” Mrs. Clark, 65, said. “There is one woman who walks up and down the street looking for smoke in people’s chimneys. She has her own spies — kids and other women who walk around with notebooks, looking for smoke.”
DEC suggests wood stove burning usage tips
ALBANY - State DEC Commissioner Pete Grannis has reminded residents to exercise great care when using wood stoves in their homes. With the winter heating season now fully upon us, many New Yorkers have begun using wood- fired stoves to take the chill off of their homes.
“While many still heat their homes with natural gas or oil, there has been a recent resurgence in the popularity of wood stoves,” said Commissioner Grannis. “Using a wood stove can be an economical and environmentally responsible choice; however, it does require more oversight and responsibility than other heating options.”
Energy prices on upswing, rise above $78
NEW YORK - Energy prices are ending the year on an upswing with large storms, falling supplies, a weak dollar and a slightly better employment picture sending futures higher.
Crude futures closed above $78 per barrel for the first time in more than a month Thursday in shortened holiday trading as the U.S. government reported that unemployment benefit claims from newly laid-off workers fell for the 16th straight week.
Natural Gas Falls After Stockpiles Decline Less Than Expected
(Bloomberg) — Natural gas futures fell the most in two weeks in New York after the U.S. Energy Department released its weekly stockpile report that showed inventories declining less than expected.
Natural gas in storage slipped 166 billion cubic feet last week to 3.4 trillion cubic feet. Analysts forecast a drop of 172 billion cubic feet, according to the median of 21 estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
US natural gas rig count slides 22 to 751 for week
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States slid 22 this week to 751, according to a report on Friday by oil services firm Baker Hughes in Houston.
The U.S. natural gas drilling rig count has rebounded after bottoming at 665 on July 17, its lowest level since May 3, 2002, when there were 640 gas rigs operating.
But the rig count is still down sharply since peaking above 1,600 in September 2008, standing at 596 rigs, or 44 percent, below the same week last year.
North Dakota oil patch posts record production
North Dakota’s oil patch will set a production record in 2009, despite a year that began with depressed crude prices and a drop in drilling activity, state and industry officials said.
North Dakota will produce about 80 million barrels of oil in 2009, up from a record 62.8 million barrels last year, said Lynn Helms, director of the state Department of Mineral Resources. Final production numbers won’t be known until sometime in the first quarter of 2010.
“We are rocking along,” Helms said. “It’s a much better year than we expected earlier in the year. It adds up fast when you’re pumping out more than 240,000 barrels a day.”
Nippon Oil, Mining to Shed 20% Capacity by March
(Bloomberg) — Nippon Oil Corp. and Nippon Mining Holdings Inc., set to merge in April, will shut three oil refining units and cut capacity at another plant by March 2011 as fuel demand shrinks in the world’s second-biggest economy.
Nippon Oil will close three crude distillation units in Japan with a combined capacity of 204,000 barrels a day, the company said in a statement released in Tokyo. Nippon Mining will also reduce capacity at a plant in Kashima, near Tokyo. The cuts amount to about 20 percent of overall capacity.
Yemen reports disastrous drop in energy revenue
CAIRO — Yemen, in addition to fighting off military challenges in its North and South, is facing a sharp drop in oil exports.
The government said crude oil exports amounted to $1.4 billion for the first 10 months of 2009. A government statement said oil export revenues during the same period in 2008 reached $4.1 billion.
The report by the Yemen Central Bank cited a drop in oil exports in 2009 as well as a decline in prices.
ORIGIN ENERGY and its joint-venture partner ConocoPhillips have taken another step in the race to export Queensland’s coal-seam gas reserves, awarding a $220 million drilling contract to the US firm Savanna Energy Services.
Under the contract, Savanna will supply two drilling rigs for five years from September next year, helping in the extensive drilling needed to extract gas from underground coal seams.
First Russian Oil From ESPO Pipe to Load Next Week
(Bloomberg) — The East Siberian Pacific Ocean Pipeline, Russia’s multibillion-dollar attempt to tap growing energy demand in Japan, China and Korea, will load its first oil next week.
“This is a colossal piece of work,” Nikolai Tokarev, who heads OAO Transneft, Russia’s oil pipeline operator, said in an interview on Russian state television station Vesti-24 today. “This isn’t just an event for Transneft.”
Judge strikes down Richmond tax on Chevron plant
MARTINEZ, Calif. (AP) — Chevron Corp. could be getting back millions of dollars from the San Francisco Bay area city of Richmond after a judge struck down a tax assessed on a refinery the oil giant operates in the city.
Contra Costa County Superior Court Judge David Flinn ruled last week that a tax approved by Richmond voters last year on the value of crude oil refined at the plant is unconstitutional and violates state law.
China to have world’s second biggest power capacity
BEIJING: China’s electricity generation capacity will increase to 860 million kilowatts at the end of this year, the second largest after the United States, energy official said on Friday.
The nation’s power grids coverage has become the world’s largest with fast expansion of ultra-high voltage network. New energy such as nuclear and wind power played an increasingly important role, said Zhang Guobao, head of the National Administration of Energy.
Capacity of wind power base in NW China hits 2 GW
YUMEN, Gansu: The installed capacity of China’s first massive wind power base in northwestern Gansu Province reached two gigawatts, local authorities said Friday.
The Jiuquan wind power base achieved the landmark capacity as China Datang Corporation, one of China’s power giants, installed a 200-megawatt wind power unit in Yumen City under the jurisdiction of Jiuquan City, said Wu Shengxue, deputy head of Jiuquan’s Reform and Development Commission.
Rise of Wind Turbines Is a Boon for Rope Workers
Rope specialists like Mr. Touchette and Mr. Haughey have long filled a range of niche jobs, like inspecting big dams, cleaning Mount Rushmore and repairing offshore oil platforms. But as wind farms have sprouted across the nation, rope companies have quickly expanded into a new line of work — fixing turbines so they last longer in the elements.
It’s a dream job for rock-climbing types.
Plug-in America’s Top 12 Plug-in Electric Vehicle Myths
1. MYTH: EVs don’t have enough range. You’ll be stranded when you run out of electricity
FACT: Americans drive an average of 40 miles per day, according to the U.S. Dept. of Transportation. Most new BEVs have a range of at least double that and can be charged at any ordinary electrical outlet (120V) or publicly accessible station with a faster charge. The latter, already in use, will proliferate as the plug-in infrastructure is built out. At present, all it takes is planning for EV owners, who can travel up to 120 miles on a single charge, to use their cars on heavy travel days. Alternatively, a PHEV goes at least 300 miles on a combination of electricity and gasoline.
Japan’s Kansai sees restarting reactor in late Jan
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s Kansai Electric Power Co (9503.T) said on Friday it expected to restart the 1,175-megawatt No.2 reactor at Ohi nuclear plant around late January after an unplanned shutdown in October.
EnergySolutions defends foreign nuclear waste plan
SALT LAKE CITY — EnergySolutions Inc. has started airing commercials critical of a U.S. congressman who wants to prevent the company from importing Italian nuclear waste for disposal in Utah’s west desert.
The company is fighting a bill in Congress sponsored by U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, that would ban the importation of foreign low-level radioactive waste unless it originated in the U.S. or served a strategic national purpose.
EnergySolutions contends jobs will be put at risk if it isn’t allowed to dispose of the waste at its facility, about miles west of Salt Lake City. Meanwhile, Matheson said that any country that creates nuclear waste should dispose of it itself.
10 Sustainability Predictions for 2010
Energy conservation and alternative energy strategies are expected to grow in importance in the coming year. Val Haskell, director of Environmental Sustainability Solutions at Hitachi Consulting, shares her list of sustainability predictions for 2010.
China defends role at Copenhagen
BEIJING (AFP) – China has defended its role at this month’s climate change talks in Copenhagen, saying Premier Wen Jiabao played a key part in sealing an accord, after critics blamed Beijing for blocking negotiations.
“One can see from the tortuous and difficult process of the summit that China played a crucial role,” said a lengthy official record of Wen’s attendance at the summit posted on the foreign ministry website late Thursday.
A diplomatic battle of finger-pointing and sharp recriminations has erupted over the summit’s final agreement, which has been widely panned for its failure to oblige countries to carry out concrete greenhouse gas emissions cuts.
Mexico wants binding climate accord at 2010 summit
MEXICO CITY (AP) — Mexico will push for a binding international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions when it hosts the next climate change summit in Mexico City in the coming year.
Mexico seeks to accomplish what the recent Copenhagen conference failed to do - get developed and poorer nations to agree to a 50 percent emissions cut by 2050, as compared to 2000 levels, according to a statement issued by the Environment Department Thursday.
Jeffrey D. Sachs: Obama undermines the U.N. climate process
Obama’s decision to declare a phony negotiating victory undermines the U.N. process by signaling that rich countries will do what they want and must no longer listen to the “pesky” concerns of many smaller and poorer countries. Some will view this as pragmatic, reflecting the difficulty of getting agreement with 192 U.N. member states. But it is worse than that. International law, as complicated as it is, has been replaced by the insincere, inconsistent, and unconvincing word of a few powers, notably the U.S. America has insisted that others sign on to its terms — leaving the U.N. process hanging by a thread — but it has never shown good will to the rest of the world on this issue, nor the interest to take the lead on it.
Global warming skepticism is fueled by public relations, author says
There’s a new book on the public relations aspect of human-induced climate change that’s well worth the read. It’s called “Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming.”
Author James Hoggan, cofounder of the DeSmogBlog.com, has been in the public relations business since 1972. His experience gives him a unique perspective on what he labeled, in a phone conversation, “by far and away the biggest public relations campaign that I’ve ever seen.”
Consumers ‘Key Part Of Solution’ To Global Warming
ScienceDaily — Consumers can have a major impact on the world’s efforts to reduce global warming, a major report has concluded.
The research is led by Professor Mohan Munasinghe, Director General of The University of Manchester’s Sustainable Consumption Institute and one of the world’s leading thinkers on energy, sustainable development and climate change.
The bad news is that Santa left me a lump of coal.
The good news is he included carbon offsets!
Merry Christmas!
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