-Dump the pump: could peak oil be voluntary?
-Shell’s Majnoon deal highlights Iraq oil target verdict
-Insight – Peak, pause or plummet? Shale oil costs at crossroads

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The prospect of weaker oil demand in the face of the Euro crisis was balanced this week by warnings from the IEA and Saudi Arabia. Sadad al-Husseini, the former head of Exploration and Production at Saudi Aramco, wrote that “$100 for Brent is quite a correction and it will be a challenge to sustain such a low price beyond the short term”…

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The age of extreme oil: ‘This used to be a forest?’

Over the course of three days spent visiting reserves, band offices and the vast sand dunes left behind by the bitumen-scrubbers surrounding Fort McMurray, the Achuar confronted a reality that may one day be their own. And they didn’t much like what they saw.

This encounter was born of a new dynamic: the age of extreme oil. Gone are the days of sweet Texas crude and boundless Arabian oil fields, when petroleum lay so near the surface that all a company had to do was prick the Earth’s crust and let the black gold gush. To the environmentalists who worry about reaching “peak oil” (and a subsequent decline in fossil fuels), critics can point out accurately enough that the world is flush with new hydrocarbon reserves. They are less quick to acknowledge the epic complexity and risks of most of these new finds.

Alberta’s oil sands are the obvious example: Here, on average, two tonnes of earth must be strip-mined and seven barrels of water heated to steam in order to produce a barrel of oil. It takes a barrel’s worth of energy to produce just three barrels of oil; 30 years ago it would have been 100.

Oil Falls to Six-Month Low on Europe

Oil dropped to a six-month low in New York on concern that Greece will have to exit the euro system, compounding Europe’s debt troubles and curbing fuel demand.

Futures declined 1.2 percent after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that market turmoil caused by the euro- zone crisis may last two more years. Crude capped its third weekly decline as U.S. consumer confidence fell and oil supplies rose to a 22-year high. Prices are down 11 percent this quarter after climbing 4.2 percent during the previous three months.

Expect lower gas prices heading into Memorial Day

If you’re lucky enough to live in some parts of the United States, you may see gas pump prices fall to around $3.25 a gallon or less in the next week or two. Even West Coast drivers should get some relief from prices that are still above $4 a gallon.

Total: Fallout Of Arab Spring Will Sustain High Prices

LONDON (Dow Jones)–High oil prices will be sustained in part through increased social spending by Middle Eastern governments in the wake of the Arab spring, Total SA Chief Economist Pierre Sigonney said Friday.

A wave of uprisings against long-entrenched rulers in North Africa and the Middle East last spring, which led to the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi, means that the region’s leaders will have to spend more of their oil revenues on social programs in an attempt to keep a lid on popular discontent.

$85 the make or break price for the oil patch

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. has rolled out two key numbers: 85 and 75.

Réal Cusson, the company’s senior vice president of marketing, on Wednesday told investors where the price of oil must trade in order for energy companies to make a go of it in the oil sands and shale gas formations.

Qatar Producing Crude Oil At Full Capacity -Energy Minister

SEOUL (Dow Jones)–Qatar is currently producing crude oil at full capacity and is sticking with its OPEC quota, Minister of Energy and Industry Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada said Friday.

Colombia says will increase natgas flow to Venezuela

(Reuters) – Colombia said on Friday it would send 50 percent more natural gas this year to neighboring Venezuela, which has yet to start producing the fuel commercially despite huge reserves.

Colombia currently exports about 200 million cubic feet (mcf) of natural gas per day to OPEC-member Venezuela, but Energy Minister Mauricio Cardenas said that would rise to 300 mcf in September.

Gasoline Cargoes to Brazil May Rise on Ethanol Drop in JBC View

Gasoline shipments to Brazil from the U.S. and Europe may rise as slumping ethanol production encourages consumption of the auto fuel, JBC Energy GmbH said.

Brazilian ethanol production fell more than 40 percent from a year earlier in April, the Vienna-based consultant said in a report today, citing data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association, or Unica. Output of hydrous ethanol, sold at pumps in Brazilian filling stations, slid 18 percent, JBC said.

Japan extends steep Iran crude oil cut to May

TOKYO (RTRS): Japan’s crude imports from Iran in May will be little changed from April, extending a sharp cut in purchases that began after the United States and Europe said they would impose sanctions against Tehran, traders said on Friday.

G-8 Leaders to Discuss Oil Market as Iran Embargo Nears

The impact on oil prices from sanctions on Iran will be on the agenda when President Barack Obama meets with other leaders of the Group of Eight nations, National Security Adviser Tom Donilon said.

Iran plans to expand oil exploration

PanARMENIAN.Net – Iranian officials announced that the country plans to expand oil exploration throughout the country, especially in Northeastern provinces, Fars News Agency reports.

Wheat exports to Iran near certain; to help settle fuel import bill

NEW DELHI: The government is working out the details of wheat exports to Iran, a move that can help India settle part of its fuel import bill with the oil-rich nation and also reduce its grains stockpile at warehouses.

Venezuela says third diesel shipment sent to Syria

(Reuters) – Venezuela has sent a third shipment of diesel to Syria, the energy minister said on Friday, underscoring President Hugo Chavez’s support of the Middle East country despite its intensified crackdown on protesters.

Earlier this year, Venezuela’s government said it had sent at least two shipments of fuel to Syria, potentially undermining Western sanctions as a rare supplier to the increasingly isolated regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey warns gas speculators to stay away from Cyprus waters

ANKARA // Turkey on Friday called on major international oil and gas companies seeking licenses to search for gas deposits off Cyprus to withdraw their bids, saying it will not allow exploration to go ahead and threatening to ban them from Turkish energy projects.

FG loses $7billion to crude oil theft

The Federal Government said it is losing about $7billion annually to crude oil theft in Nigeria, at the rate of 180,000 barrels per day.

To stem the trend, which government claimed rose rapidly in the last 12 months because of the collusion of some foreign nationals , a new industry joint task force, JTF, has been set up to tackle the menace.

Proposal to turn Kuwait into world’s oil capital – State’s energy consumption up 66%: Study

KUWAIT: The concept of ‘Kuwait as the world’s oil capital’ will see the light after being studied comprehensively, said, Fadhel Safar Minister of Public Works and Planning and Development revealed on Thursday. On the sidelines of a preparatory meeting for the country’s second mid-term development plan, Safar told KUNA that the idea of turning Kuwait into a world oil capital goes falls in line with the vision of turning it also into a financial and commercial hub. This can be accomplished by offering a complete set of Kuwaiti oil and manufacturing industries by providing job opportunities for 21,000 potential employees, the minister said during last night’s meeting that included the presence of representatives for the Kuwaiti oil and industrial sectors.

Consultant: nimble footwork on gas exports, energy rethink needed

However, the high oil prices have brought to light the weakness of a theory that the world is about to pass an unsustainable peak in oil supplies. New oil and gas resources have magically appeared in improbable locations such as Uganda, offshore Mozambique and the eastern Mediterranean, Chow said.

“The other thing that we’ve learned in the last few years … is the peak oil theory is bunk,” he said.

It turns out that the availability of oil and gas supplies is determined by people’s imagination, their ability to harness innovative technology and by the amount of investment that people are willing to risk, and not so much by geology, he said.

Peak oil debate is over, and U.S. energy independence will be obtained by 2020

Amazingly, a growing chorus of analysts are arguing that the peak oil debate is over and the U.S. will soon achieve energy independence. I agree. It is over, and the U.S. will soon achieve energy independence. However, the implications of this are negative for the economy and jobs, and prove that analysts like Matt Simmons and Richard Heinberg were right in their dire peak oil predictions, as a careful analysis clearly shows.

First India Shale Gas Seen in 4 Years, China Output Nears

Oil & Natural Gas Corp. of India and competitors may drill for at least four years before producing the first commercial shale gas in the nation as China expects to commence output next month and Australia boosts reserves.

Chesapeake Cash Crunch May Shrink as Gas Prices Rise 42%

Rising natural-gas prices have provided some relief to Chesapeake Energy Corp., which has seen its shares plummet this year on management controversy and a looming cash-flow shortfall.

Chesapeake Turns to Jefferies’ Eads in $28 Billion Deals

Fitch Ratings estimates the company’s cash-flow shortfall may reach $10 billion this year. The stock has dropped 36 percent this year and McClendon said this week that Carl Icahn, the activist investor, may be buying shares. Chesapeake rose 6 percent to $14.36 at the close in New York.

Sudan set to devalue pound amid oil crunch

(Reuters) – Sudan will allow foreign exchange bureaux and banks to trade dollars at a level close to the black market rate, effectively devaluing the pound, a senior banking official said on Friday.

Sudan’s economy has been battered since the country lost three-quarters of its oil production to South Sudan when the latter became independent in July. Even though the pipelines are in Sudan, the two have been unable to agree on how much the South should pay to transport its oil.

Ghana Loses GH¢583 million Oil Revenue

Ghana has failed to achieve the targeted oil revenue of GH¢1.250 billion for 2011 as the nation has only raked in GH¢666 million from the commodity.

This represents a shortfall of GH¢583 million, which the Jubilee partners have attributed to the inability of the Jubilee field to produce the estimated 120 barrels of oil daily.

Ethical Oil challenges Harper, Mulcair to back reversal of Ontario pipeline

A pro-oil-sands lobby group is calling on politicians to support a proposal that would see an existing Southwestern Ontario pipeline reversed to send oil from west to east.

“This decision should be a no-brainer,” said Jamie Ellerton, executive director of Ethical Oil. “But it will still be opposed – it will face opposition from radical environmental groups.”

Reviving Arctic oil rush, Ottawa to auction rights in massive area

Ottawa has placed 905,000 hectares of the northern offshore up for bids, clearing the way for energy companies to snap up exploration rights for an area half the size of Lake Ontario. The scale of the offer indicates eagerness in the oil patch to drill for new finds in Canada’s northern waters less than two years after such plans were put on hold following the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico and a major Arctic drilling safety review.

Exxon Valdez-like oil disaster in Arctic feared

One of Canada’s top experts on Arc-tic issues is warning of the “near-inevitability” of an Exxon Valdez-scale oil spill at a fragile choke point in Alaskan waters if Canada ends up shipping oil-sands fuel to China via pipeline terminals on the British Columbia coast.

Two women charged over WA gas hub protest

Two women have been charged over their protest against the $30 billion gas hub planned by Woodside Petroleum at James Price Point in Western Australia.

Green Peak Oil Stock Expanding in North America

In our new peak oil world of $4 gas and, more and more people are opting for bus travel. The young like it: My girlfriend’s daughter travels by bus almost exclusively, even though she owns a car. None of the problems above are likely to get any better. Airline and gas prices will go up with oil prices. TSA procedures are ever more invasive. Amtrak needs fundamental reform and rail lines that are separate from freight to deliver better service.

Hence the Bus.

Many benefits of wind power make tax credit a smart idea

Entrenched special interests and their friends in Congress are blocking an extension of the production tax credit that has helped drive much of my industry’s growth and helps level the playing field for wind energy. (Oil, coal and other fossil fuels are all highly subsidized and have been for most of the last century.) If the tax credit is not extended soon, 37,000 U.S. wind-industry workers could lose their jobs, according to Navigant Consulting. Not a week goes by now when I do not hear of layoffs due to tax-credit uncertainty. Ohio will be especially hard hit without a production tax credit, as orders for wind turbine components dry up completely.

Break Up Big Wind’s Subsidies

Not that long ago, we noted that the wind power industry has not fulfilled the lofty expectations it generated or met the claims of its more zealous advocates. Expectations and government subsidies are the only sure things that wind farms are creating.

Wind power 100 times cleaner than coal, Colorado NREL researchers say

A kilowatt-hour of of electrcity generated by wind power emits less than one percent of the greenhouse gases as a kilowatt made by burning coal, according to a new National Renewable Energy Laboratory study.

Swapping Out Charcoal With Ethanol

Africa used to boast nearly three million square miles of forest, only about one-third of which remain today. The principal culprit is charcoal production for cookstove fuel, which emits soot that leads to endemic health problems.

Last Ones Left in a Toxic Kansas Town

At the entrance to Treece, something strange happens: Mountains appear on the horizon. Except they’re not really mountains. They’re mounds of toxic stone. Gray, treeless monuments to the town’s more profitable past.

Obama unveils US food security plan for Africa

US President Barack Obama has announced a $3bn (£1.9bn) plan to boost food security and farm productivity in Africa, US officials say.

They say the initiative is aimed at alleviating shortages as world food supplies are being stretched by rising demand in Asia’s emerging markets.

Worse than Keystone

Environmentalists are focused oil and gas, but a bigger carbon disaster may be brewing in the Pacific Northwest.

With Natural Gas Plentiful and Cheap, Carbon Capture Projects Stumble

WASHINGTON — A federal proposal to ban the construction of coal-fired power plants that release all of their carbon dioxide into the atmosphere would seem to smooth the way for carbon capture, a budding technology that traps the greenhouse gas for storage or other uses.

But even as the Environmental Protection Agency prepares to open hearings on the proposed rule, unveiled in March, industry experts say the persistently low price of natural gas is threatening the viability of the nation’s carbon capture projects.

Investors fear Greek eurozone exit after new elections called, while Spanish banks under pressure

Leading shares suffered their worst week since August last year as the eurozone crisis escalated, with growing talk that Greece could leave the single currency and Spain coming back into the firing line.

As leaders of the G8 industrial nations met to discuss the situation, the FTSE 100 fell 70.76 points to 5267.62, its fifth day of losses and its worst level since 25 November last year.

Over the week the leading index lost 308 points, with just short of £80bn wiped off the value of Britain’s top companies according to FTSE Group. News that Greece would call a new election after failing to form a government added more uncertainty to an already volatile situation, with anti-austerity party Syriza threatening to tear up the country’s bailout agreement. June’s vote is now widely seen as a referendum on euro membership. Meanwhile there were more signs of contagion in the rest of the eurozone, with ratings agency Moody’s downgrading 16 Spanish banks amid concerns about the country’s debt levels.

So financial shares fell sharply lower, on concern about their exposure to Spain and the rest of the eurozone, with Lloyds Banking Group losing 1.7p to 25.95p, Royal Bank of Scotland falling 1.07p to 19.99p and Barclays closing 5.8p lower at 176.1p.

Talk that China might offer support to the eurozone by buying government bonds, and suggestions of a ban on short selling European shares, provided a minor fillip during the day, but this soon wore off.

Nor did shares receive much benefit from the much-hyped – but delayed – Facebook flotation, with Wall Street down around 40 points by the time London closed.

Mining shares subsided after data showed house prices in China fell 1.2% in April, the second monthly decline in a row. Goldman Sachs also downgraded its growth forecast for second quarter GDP in China – a key consumer of commodities – from 8.5% to 7.9%. Xstrata dropped 41.5p to 914.7p and Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation fell 16p to 457.9p. But Mexican precious metals miner Fresnillo added 28p to £13.58 after a positive annual meeting statement.

The problems at hedge fund group Man continued after Standard & Poor’s moved its outlook from stable to negative. It said there was a one in three probability of a downgrade if its weak performance, particularly at its key AHL fund, and client outflows continued. Man closed 3.25p lower at 75.3p. Peter Lenardos at RBC Capital Markets said:

S&P states that the stable outlook could be restored if Man returns to sustained net sales, investment performance is consistently strong and supportive of enhanced future fund inflows, and management acts in a way that adequately balances the priorities of bondholders and shareholders. Our forecasts do not envision either sustained net sales or “consistently strong” investment performance.

We expect Man Group’s share price volatility to persist. We continue to believe that news flow, AHL performance and share price trends could present attractive short-term trading opportunities.

Meanwhile Numis repeated its sell advice, with analyst David McCann saying the business was worth no more than its liquidation value, which it put at between 50p and 75p a share. He also dismissed recent talk that Man could find itself as a bid target:

Whilst it is dangerous to completely rule the possibility out, our feeling is that the possibility of being acquired is remote, unless it were to trade below liquidation value. Anyone acquiring Man today has exactly the same problem as shareholders – no one really knows with any degree of certainty how AHL will perform and therefore what the largest part of the group is worth. Also, Man has been considered by many to have been in “stressed” share price territory on a number of occasions over the last five years and has often been linked with an “imminent” approach. If anyone was really interested, surely they would have played their hand by now.

ITV dipped 3.05p to 78.85p after analysts at HSBC put an underweight rating on the broadcaster, although the bank raised its price target from 74p to 83p:

ITV has short-term momentum but there are long-term concerns. Estimate revisions have been driven mainly by non-core operations and other one-offs. Our leading indicators predicted the UK TV advertising spend decline in the second half of 2011 and remain negative; each 1% decline in advertising takes around 5% off earnings per share.

But BT bucked the trend, adding 1.5p to 204p following an upgrade from analysts at Berenberg, who raised their rating from hold to buy and their price target from 220p to 245p. The bank said:

Having revisited our cost analysis for BT, we conclude that consensus estimates for March 2013 are too low and we believe that BT will beat expectations by more than 2%. Against a backdrop of most other incumbent operators facing increasing operational pressure and threats to forecasts, we believe this will continue to make BT a safe haven.

Among the mid-caps, the London Stock Exchange added 27.5p to 992p after it announced a 30% rise in full year profits. In a buy note James Hamilton at Numis said:

[This was a] strong result from the LSE, 6% ahead of consensus excluding exceptional gains. With the benefits of the acquisitions largely still to flow through the profit and loss account, we believe the LSE offers good value at less than 10 times historic earnings.

Invensys slipped 0.6p to 211p but outperformed the market after analysts at UBS issued a buy note on the engineering group and raised their price target from 225p to 235p following Thursday’s final results. They said:

[The] results were mixed. Invensys operations management margins were on the weak side even excluding problematic nuclear contracts and if we adjust for issues in Australia, rail growth was still non-existent. However, as with any Invensys results day, we were braced for worse. There were in fact a lot of positives too – operations management order book coverage, the reiteration of 15%-17% medium term rail margins and the improved cash flow.

Invensys has been the subject of bid speculation in recent weeks, with China’s CSR, Siemens, ABB and General Electric all mentioned as possible predators. But UBS said:

We are not believers in M&A rhetoric. While the probability of an offer appears to have risen (given recent press reports) we would not count on it.

But Lamprell continued its decline, down 7.5p to 121p. The oil services group issued a surprise profit warning on Wednesday, just two weeks after two directors sold shares. Yesterday HSBC cut its target price from 440p to 215p and said:

Potential return supports an overweight rating but we don’t see a quick recovery.

Finally Icap slipped 3.6p to 338.4p after the interdealer broker agreed to buy the junior stock exchange run by Plus Markets for a nominal £1. Plus, whose quoted companies include Arsenal, Stieg Larsson publisher Quercus and brewer Adnams, said earlier in the week it would close down its exchange operation after failing to find a buyer, but subsequently it confirmed reports that Icap was interested in the business.

S&P says one in three chance of a downgrade if Man’s performance continues to be weak

Shares in Man have been volatile for some while on worries about the hedge fund’s performance, and they have fallen again after negative noises from Standard & Poor’s.

The credit ratings agency moved its outlook on the hedge fund from stable to negative. It said there was a one in three probability of a downgrade if its weak performance, particularly at its key AHL fund, and client outflows continued. Peter Lenardos at RBC Capital Markets said:

S&P states that the stable outlook could be restored if Man returns to sustained net sales, investment performance is consistently strong and supportive of enhanced future fund inflows, and management acts in a way that adequately balances the priorities of bondholders and shareholders. Our forecasts do not envision either sustained net sales or “consistently strong” investment performance.

We expect Man Group’s share price volatility to persist. We continue to believe that news flow, AHL performance and share price trends could present attractive short-term trading opportunities.

Meanwhile Numis repeated its sell advice, with analyst David McCann saying the business was worth no more than its liquidation value, which it put at between 50p and 75p a share. He also dismissed recent talk that Man could find itself as a bid target:

Whilst it is dangerous to completely rule the possibility out, our feeling is that the possibility of being acquired is remote, unless it were to trade below liquidation value. Anyone acquiring Man today has exactly the same problem as shareholders- no one really knows with any degree of certainty how AHL will perform and therefore what the largest part of the group is worth.

Also, Man has been considered by many to have been in “stressed” share price territory on a number of occasions over the last five years and has often been linked with an “imminent” approach. If anyone was really interested, surely they would have played their hand by now.

Man shares are currently 1.7p lower at 76.85p.

Company says search for new chief executive continues, with two candidates on the shortlist

April’s heavy rain put people off going to Mitchells & Butlers pubs, the company admitted, as it also struggled with rising food and fuel costs.

So half year profits at the group, whose brands include Harveter and All Bar One, dipped by £1m to £42m, and executive chairman Bob Ivell said in a conference call:

We own a lot of places with big gardens. The wet weather does tend to suppress them.

Like for like sales in the first 28 weeks of the year rose by 2.7% but with the effect of April’s weather, the rise was 2% in the 33 weeks to 12 May. But it expects to meet market expectations for its full year figures – City consensus is for profits of around £169m – despite the current challenging conditions.

The company has still not found a replacement for chief executive Adam Fowle, who left in March 2011, but Ivell said he had a shortlist of two potential candidates. Mitchells is also looking for further non-executives for the board. In January more than 14% of shareholders protested against the re-election of its two existing non-executives, who represent the interests of the company’s biggest shareholder Joe Lewis.

Mitchells’ shares have lost 4.9p to 241.1p in the wake of the results, and Paul Hickman at Peel Hunt said:

Sales performance reduced in the second quarter and reduced further in the current period. Steady progress on investment continues though overall returns have slipped. Cost-saving measures are in progress, but at significant cost.

Still lacking a chief executive and unlikely to pay a dividend soon, Mitchells looks a less than compelling investment.