Post Carbon Exchange #3: Richard Gilbert & David Bragdon
RICHARD GILBERT and DAVID BRAGDON discuss the future of transportation systems as we near the end of cheap oil. What are the solutions? How will we get there? Are we facing the end of the internal combustion engine?
German military study warns of potential energy crisis – English translation of main points
This week a study on peak oil by a German military think tank was leaked on the Internet. The document shows that the German government is closely studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines. The study is reminiscent of the Hirsch Report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy, that warned of the risks posed by peak oil. … Below is a friend’s translation of the major points in the report.
Nations & resources – Sept 3
- China Cuts Rare Earth Export Quota 72%
- Rare earth minerals from China are rarer
- Why the world is running out of helium
- Time to close the global energy gap
- Putin opens Russian section of Siberian-Pacific oil pipeline
ODAC Newsletter – Sep 3
A report by the German armed services (the Bundeswehr) on the implications of peak oil on national security was leaked to the internet this week and picked up by Der Spiegel. The report, which was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, acknowledges that peak oil will happen, and that while estimates of the timing vary it could be any time from 2010 with the impacts on security likely to be felt 15 to 20 years later.
Peak oil notes – Sept 2
A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Prices and production
-China continues to grow
Drumbeat: September 2, 2010
John Michael Greer – Green Wizardry: A response to Rob Hopkins
Rob Hopkins is a smart guy, and even though he’s garbled a fair number of the details, his post raises useful points regarding some of the core issues I’ve tried to bring up in the Green Wizards posts.
The first of those is that one of the motivations behind the Green Wizards project is a recognition of the limitations of the Transition Towns project. I’ve discussed my concerns about that movement on several occasions on this blog, and don’t see any need to repeat those comments just now. The crucial point, though, is one that Hopkins himself cheerfully admits: that neither he nor anyone else in the movement can be sure that it will accomplish what it’s trying to accomplish.
That’s a bold statement, and one that’s worthy of respect. Still, it has implications I’m not sure Hopkins has followed as far as they deserve. If the difficult future ahead of us can’t be known well enough to tell in advance what strategies will best deal with it, in particular, it seems to me that it’s a serious mistake to put all our eggs in one basket, whether it’s the one labeled “Transition” or any other.
Oil is clearly a finite resource. It would follow then, that the key issue surrounding discussions of peak production is not whether we will reach a point of maximum global production followed by steady declines, but rather the timing of the peak and the rate of post peak decline. The research carries with a wide range of answers to these questions.
‘Green’ cannot be America’s only goal
Future-Dated Jan. 1, 2072.
The downfall of the U.S. can be traced to a crippling shortage of available energy supplies.
There were other factors: Uncontrolled government spending, and more people living off the government than those paying to support it. And sudden, frenzied worship of the environment, right up to the day we deprived ourselves of the ability to wrest a living from it.
The nation ground to a halt when her cars, trucks, buses, trains, planes, boats and power plants all ran out of fuel. Without transport the nation’s massive urban centers had no food. The stench of uncollected garbage and unburied bodies filled the air and mixed with the smoke of uncontrolled fires. Without fire engines the firemen couldn’t reach the fires and without fuel the pumps were useless.
Analysis: Global Jackup Report Card
Industry consensus among offshore drillers points to stability in the jackup market over the remainder of 2010. Eight months into the year, global jackup utilization of 80% is exactly where we started the year. Utilization has been helped by the strong demand for high-spec jackups as lesser capable rigs have faced their share of headwinds.
Deepwater Drilling Moratorium Hits Louisiana Hard
Both Republicans and Democrats in Louisiana say the federal moratorium on deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico — put in place after the BP oil spill — is now that state’s biggest problem. US federal government officials and many environmental activists say the temporary ban on drilling is necessary to prevent further accidents. But people in the Gulf region are worried that many of the well-paying jobs provided by the energy industry might leave and never come back.
Landowners Shout `Bingo’ as West Australia’s Mining Towns Boom
The housing shortage in a region that’s one of the world’s biggest suppliers of iron ore and natural gas is driving up costs for companies such as Chevron Corp. and BHP Billiton Ltd. as they mine raw materials to feed China’s industrialization. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, was forced to lease seven-year-old cruise liner MS Finnmarken to house 350 workers at its A$43 billion Gorgon gas project.
How China Could Avert a Water Crisis Without Uprooting 330,000 People
Water needs in the North have forced hundreds of thousands out of their homes as dams expand, but an innovative desalinization solution could spare them.
Saudi Aramco extends bids for Wasit gas plant
KHOBAR, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) – State oil giant Saudi Aramco has extended the closing date for bids to build the kingdom’s largest gas plant, industry sources said on Thursday.
The due date to submit bids for the onshore packages has been pushed to Oct. 24 from a September deadline, sources said.
The Politics of Power Cuts in Egypt
Are Mubarak’s Gas Sales to Israel Partly to Blame?
Technology and development: A growing number of initiatives are promoting bottom-up ways to deliver energy to the world’s poor.
Electric car upswing would crash grid: Toronto Hydro chief
“If you connect about 10 per cent of the homes on any given street with an electric car, the electricity system fails,” Haines told an audience at Ryerson University Wednesday. “It basically can’t handle that load.”
What to do? That’s part of the reason why Toronto Hydro, Hydro One and the Ontario Power Authority have pledged a total of $7 million over the next five years to kick-start Ryerson’s new Centre for Urban Energy.
Americans in the dark about energy use
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Americans aren’t known for their energy-thrift ways. Maybe that’s because they have little idea as to how much energy things use.
While people are generally able to rank items according to energy use – i.e. the dryer uses more than the toaster – they are way off the mark when it comes to gauging by just how much, according to a recent study from researchers at Columbia University and elsewhere.
Example: Most people knew that a laptop computer uses less energy than a desktop. But few knew the lap used one-third the amount.
Eco-author baffled by a violent fan
The “Ishmael” books are aimed at encouraging radical social change — but their author says hostage-taking is definitely not the change he had in mind.
Canada thirsty for new water ethic
In a single generation, Canada has evolved from a from a nation that took great pride in its citizens’ ability to drink from almost any river, stream or lake in the country, to one seriously concerned about water quality and availability now and in the future.
Growing Community Food Systems
Food systems can be a very powerful tool for resilience. In a revolutionary way, you can completely trasform things without people realizing what’s happening–they are aware, but it just makes intuitive sense this way. It’s also not about just going out and fighting the proverbial “man,” or continuing an academic dialogue about what could happen or should happen; you don’t have time for this because you’ve got a lot to do.
So instead of having people just being oppositional and trying to get someone else to make the changes, you have people who are assets to their community, who are making the transformation happen themselves (but being oppositional when they need to be).
Brazil has revolutionised its own farms. Can it do the same for others?
Transition group plans community dinner
HONESDALE, PA — A newly formed group in Honesdale is holding a “Creating Community” potluck dinner on Saturday, September 11 at the Parish House of Grace Episcopal Church at 9th and Church Street in Honesdale from 6 to 8 p.m.
“Everyone’s invited,” said Barbara Lewis, who is helping to spearhead this new local initiative.
The group, which calls itself Transition Honesdale, is inviting individuals and groups who wish to be a part of efforts to raise awareness of sustainable living and the need to build local ecological resilience. It encourages the community to seek out methods of reducing energy usage and dependence on fossil fuels and avoid purchasing products that are shipped over thousands of miles. In many communities, for example, the Transition Towns movement has led to the establishment of community gardens to produce local food and to the development of canning skills.
Post Carbon Exchange #3: Richard Gilbert & David Bragdon
RICHARD GILBERT and DAVID BRAGDON discuss the future of transportation systems as we near the end of cheap oil. What are the solutions? How will we get there? Are we facing the end of the internal combustion engine?
Judge rules against U.S. government on oil drilling
HOUSTON (Reuters) – A federal judge on Wednesday rejected the U.S. government’s request to dismiss an industry lawsuit challenging its deepwater oil and gas drilling moratorium, dealing another blow to the Obama administration.
Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc and other drilling companies sued the administration on June 7 after it first ordered a halt to deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico following BP Plc’s well rupture that killed 11 workers and caused the world’s worst offshore oil spill.
As a result of Louisiana-based Hornbeck’s lawsuit, U.S. District Court Judge Martin Feldman in New Orleans blocked implementation of the drilling ban on June 22.
Oil Trades Below $74 After Falling on Bigger-Than-Forecast Supply Increase
Oil declined as equity indexes slipped and traders waited for signs whether the European Central Bank will extend emergency lending.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may signal at a rate meeting today that policy makers will keep offering unlimited cash to financial institutions through the end of the year. A U.S. government report yesterday showed crude stockpiles increased almost three times more than analysts forecast.
“There are still fears about a double-dip recession in the U.S,” said Roland Stenzel, a crude and carbon trader at E&T Energie Handelsgesellschaft mbH, said from Vienna.
DOE Update: U.S. Crude Oil Production Hits 6-Year High
U.S. crude oil production increased 1.7% from last week. Year-to-date oil output is up 3.8% from the year ago period. Production is now at the highest level since April 2004.
Oil output in Russia fell by 0.8% in August from an all-time high reached in July, to hit a seven-month low, the Energy Ministry said today.
Qatari Oil Rises on Japan’s Record Low Kerosene Supplies
Qatar Marine crude is trading at the highest level in four weeks versus its official selling price as Japanese refiners replenish supplies of kerosene for heating and Saudi Arabia cuts shipments of similar grades.
Qatar Marine for loading in October jumped on Aug. 23 to a premium of 5 cents a barrel relative to the benchmark producer prices, compared with a discount of 8 cents the previous week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The kerosene-rich blend has traded at an average of 9 cents below its official selling price during the past year.
Cuban offshore oil plans gain momentum
Havana, Cuba (CNN) — While the Gulf of Mexico oil spill has sparked debate in America on the merits of deepwater drilling, 90 miles away Cuba’s offshore plans are quietly taking shape.
The country aims to drill seven exploration wells in its share of the Gulf of Mexico by 2014, according to American oil experts who recently met with Cuba’s state oil monopoly Cupet and regulatory officials.
Norway offshore on course for record spend
Statistics Norway said today that oil and gas investments – the core driver of Norway’s economic growth – were on track to set a new record high next year.
Petrobras to Buy Oil From Brazil for $42.5 Billion in Stock
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Latin America’s largest company by market value, agreed to pay the Brazilian government $42.5 billion in new stock for the right to develop 5 billion barrels of offshore oil reserves.
Petrobras, as the state-run company is known, will pay an average of $8.51 a barrel for the oil after almost two weeks of negotiations with the government, according to a regulatory filing yesterday. More than half the oil will come from the Franco field in the offshore Santos Basin, the company said.
Russia to supply 70% of oil to JV in China
Russia will supply about 70 percent of oil at market prices for a proposed joint refinery between Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), Reuters said Thursday, citing a Russian news agency.
Russian gas giant Gazprom saw its profit for the first quarter of the year more than triple on the back of a foreign exchange gain, adding it had cut its net debt by more than 30%.
Statoil CEO Says Canadian Oil Sands `Attractive’ at Current Crude Prices
Statoil ASA, Norway’s biggest energy company, said oil sands are attractive at current crude price levels and the company is working on bringing costs down to proceed with its investments in Canada.
“We’ve had a market lately that has made that type of oil attractive,” Chief Executive Helge Lund said today in an Oslo interview. “Of course the problem two, three years ago with Canada was the costs.”
Weak Laws Bother Iraq Investors More Than Violence as U.S. Goes
Ahmed Jamal says it isn’t primarily Iraq’s violence that deters his company from investing in the country. It is its weak business laws.
“We don’t have factories or warehouses or anything like that,” said Jamal, regional sales manager for Istanbul-based beverage distributor Hayat Su, which brings bottled water to Iraq in trucks and works through a local representative. “The investment laws are not suitable.”
BP to remove equipment at Gulf well by Sunday
HOUSTON (Reuters) – BP Plc expects to remove a failed blowout preventer atop its ruptured Gulf of Mexico oil well by Saturday or Sunday and later plug the leak for good, the top U.S. official overseeing the spill response said on Wednesday.
“We believe in the next 24 to 36 hours, we will enter a weather window that will allow us to proceed,” retired Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said at a briefing in Houston.
BP Tripled Ad Spending After Spill
It will come as little surprise to newspaper readers and television watchers, but BP significantly increased its spending on advertising after the April 20 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill. BP spent $93.4 million on newspaper, magazine, television and Internet advertising in the three months after the disaster, three times what it spent in the comparable period in 2009, the company reported to Congress.
But like many communities in Montana, we may soon share our backyard with a new set of neighbors, and the changes these folks bring will not be so benign. Until recently, the oil and gas industry has been the source of horror stories from Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico: the names of towns like Pinedale, Rifle and Farmington have become shorthand for cautionary tales told with a “thank-God-it’s-not-us” undertone.
Australian leader acquires Aboriginal land
The leader of Australia’s resources-rich western province has been accused of ‘another invasion’ by forcibly acquiring coastal land slated for return to native tribes to build a gas plant.
Colin Barnett, premier of Western Australia state, today said he had started formal proceedings to take the land for Woodside’s Browse liquefied natural gas precinct at James Price Point.
Cairn Greenland ops resume after Greenpeace protest
LONDON (AFP) – Scottish oil exploration group Cairn Energy said Thursday it had resumed operations on a rig off the coast of Greenland after Greenpeace ended a protest.
What a misanthropic bunch of stunts
Figures published by the US Geological Survey in 2008 estimated that there are 90 billion barrels of oil in the Arctic as a whole, enough to provide for the entire world’s current oil consumption for about a year. Of this, about 50 billion barrels may be found around Greenland. Given that Greenland is the biggest island in the world (assuming Australia is a continent), yet has a population of just 56,000, this could be an enormous windfall both for the local communities and for Denmark, which has formal control over the territory.
No wonder that Greenland’s prime minister, Kuupik Kleist, is less than impressed by Greenpeace’s protest: ‘Greenpeace has once again succeeded in impeding Greenland’s opportunities to secure the economic foundation for its people’s condition of life. The Greenland government regards the Greenpeace action as being a very grave and illegal attack on Greenland’s constitutional rights. It is highly disturbing that Greenpeace, in its chase on media attention, breaks the safety regulations put in place to protect people and the environment.’
There’s been a lot of talk about oil this summer. Most of it bad. Devastating, record-setting leaks in the Gulf of Mexico and in Michigan’s Kalamazoo River underscored, once again, the danger of our dependence on crude. Seductively efficient and still relatively cheap, oil provides nearly 40 percent of America’s power. But it’s also a finite resource that presents a very real threat to our environment, economy, security, and health. Given the growing risks and the shrinking reserves, there must be loads of people out there — experts from government, corporations, academia, and the like — hatching plans for a cleaner, safer, post-oil world, right? We asked our expert panel to explain where we are in oil’s troubled lifespan, and whether and how we’ll ever wean the world off its current fossil fuel of choice.
Peak Oil And The German Government – Military Study Warns Of Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis
A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how “peak oil” might change the global economy. The internal draft document – leaked on the Internet – shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.
The dirty topic of peak oil: get ready to reduce your reliance
Wouldn’t it be funny if we spent so long arguing about what to do about climate change that we ran out of cheap oil first? No, it wouldn’t really, it would be catastrophic.
But given the government’s delay in producing an Energy White Paper and the steady backsliding on the need to actually reduce our greenhouse gas emissions in Australia, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. Even the usually optimistic International Energy Agency (IEA) is starting to sound a little nervous.
How Malthus drove the Discovery Channel gunman crazy: The greatest pessimist in economic history has been wrong for 200 years, but he’s still freaking people out
Among the demands of James Lee, the deranged gunman who rampaged through the headquarters of the Discovery Channel in Washington, D.C., before being shot and killed late Wednesday afternoon, was a request that the TV network “develop shows that mention the Malthusian sciences about how food production leads to the overpopulation of the Human race.”
Insane, but perhaps not quite as kooky as it might initially seem. Because when choosing crazy-making prophets of doom and destruction as your inspiration, you could do a lot worse than the late 18th-century economist Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus.
New report shows state highways in good shape
A new report on the condition of the USA’s state highways finds that they are in the best shape they have been in nearly 20 years.
The annual study by the Reason Foundation, a Los Angeles-based, libertarian, non-profit think tank, credits road improvement progress man by states and decreased wear and tear as commuters and commercial truckers drove less during the recession.
Canada’s Renewable-Fuel Regulations Completed, to Take Effect on Dec. 15
Canada said it completed regulations that will require an average renewable-fuel content of 5 percent in gasoline as part of an effort to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.
The rules will take effect Dec. 15, the government said in an e-mailed announcement today.
GM moves to trademark ‘Range anxiety’
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — If you’re thinking about buying an electric car but you’re worried about getting stuck someplace when the battery runs out, General Motors has a two words for that.
“Range anxiety.”
The automaker has filed for a trademark on the term. Range anxiety is a major reason car shoppers say they would avoid buying an electric car.
Chevy Volt, Electric Revolution? Or Outta Gas?
The first thing I noticed driving the Chevrolet Volt is that it’s a real car. GM did not kick out the kind of street-legal version of a golf cart like we have seen with previous attempts at making an electric car. The Volt is sturdy and it has horsepower. I had it up to 80 MPH on the test track and given how quiet gasoline powered cars are today, I was hard pressed to notice a difference between the Volt and my last airport rental.
Desertec solar hopes cloud over as support starts to waver
It has been one step forward, two steps back this year for the Desertec solar project, which aims to source 15 per cent of Europe’s electricity supply from the MENA region’s deserts by 2050.
A significant piece of good news for the ambitious €400 billion (Dh1.87 trillion) scheme came in April, when one of its members, Germany’s Solar Millennium, said its 150 megawatt Kuraymat project in Egypt was nearing completion and could serve as a template for other north African solar farms.
Then came the bad news with Algeria’s decision last month not to participate in the Desertec Industrial Initiative, which was formally launched last year by a group of 12 European companies, mostly from Germany. On Monday, Paul van Son, the director of the group, said he was now also concerned about declining German government support for the project.
Fresh Air for Sale, in Hong Kong
HONG KONG — ‘‘Do your feeble breathing skills let you down? Does standing up tire you out?’’ The answer: Buy a breath or two of ‘‘Fresh Air’’ — the ‘‘revolutionary new product’’ that lets you experience breathing ‘‘like the rest of the world does.’’
…‘‘Fresh Air’’ is the new campaign tool of Hong Kong’s Clean Air Network, a nongovernmental group that promotes awareness of, you guessed it, the wretched air quality in this city of seven million.
Green roofs offer antidote to urban heat island effect, say researchers
Researchers at Columbia University have demonstrated that a layer of plants and earth can cut the rate of heat absorption through the roof of a building in summer by 84%.
Welsh biochar facility opens up carbon possibilities for farmers
WALES is set to benefit from a new £180,000 biochar facility which may transform the way the country tackles climate change.
Aberystwyth University is installing a biomass waste recycling unit designed to produce biochar – a charcoal-like substance – that can be used to improve soil fertility and raise agricultural productivity.
How bad are the next few years going to suck?
The hot question in green circles these days is, “what next?” For the last decade, strategy has been built around getting a federal climate bill that would place a cap on carbon emissions. That attempt was supposed to culminate in success this year, but it didn’t, so … what next?
There will be much to say along those lines in coming months. I hope to share words of inspiration and uplift, to stir minds with insight and hearts with passion. To tell great tales of green pastures to come and the heroes who will sail the fleet of righteousness to the golden shores of, uh, the pastures. Just real quick, though, I need to be depressed as hell for a minute.
Prince Charles urges people to wear old clothes
Prince Charles, the heir to the British throne, has urged people to wear more old and recycled clothes, and natural fabrics like him so as to help reduce the world’s carbon footprint and halt climate change. In an article for this month’s ‘Vogue’ magazine, he wrote about his passion for reusing and repairing things. “On the whole, the older some things are, the more comfortable and familiar they become; they can even be adapted to look new in a different context.”
Climate funds shouldn’t divert poverty aid, UN says
The U.N.’s climate chief says poor countries are right to expect that any funding they receive to combat global warming be kept separate from development aid or poverty relief.
Climate change ‘driving a new industrial revolution’
Climate change is driving a new industrial revolution that will reward creative thinking and early investment in green technologies, British economist Nicholas Stern says.
The former World Bank president warned high-emitting countries that fell behind in this global ”green race” to transition to a low-carbon economy could face future trade barriers.
6 global warming skeptics who changed their minds
With 2010 shaping up as the warmest year on record and unprecedented heat waves gripping the planet, global warming skeptics have suffered another blow with the defection of the “most high-profile” member of their camp, author Bjorn Lomborg. But Lomborg isn’t the first doubter to accept the scientific consensus that human carbon emissions are warming the planet and need to be curtailed. Here, a review of several prominent cases:
Report: Climate change threatens historic Jamestown, Va.
Human-caused climate change threatens to flood Jamestown, the first permanent European settlement in what became the American colonies and the United States, says a report Wednesday by environmental groups.
Jamestown Island, the site of the original 1607 settlement, is low enough to be inundated by rising seas and tidal waters — even if the waters do not rise as much by 2100 as scientists predict, according to the report by Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Colorado-based Rocky Mountain Climate Organization.
Al Gore announces appointing experts to study Pakistan floods
ISLAMABAD (APP): President Asif Ali Zardari and Former US vice president Al Gore held a telephonic conversation on Thursday to discuss the situation of recent floods in Pakistan and its possible linkage with the climate change.President Zardari while discussing the causes of floods indicated that the factor of climate change and its impact should also be examined in this regard. He said the international community must take this environmental subject seriously so that solutions could be found out for the overall betterment of the world.
Climate change puts China harvests at risk
PARIS (AFP) – Climate change could reduce key harvests in China by a fifth if the gloomiest scenarios prove true, according to a study on Wednesday.
Publishing in the journal Nature, a team of Chinese scientists say China’s climate “has clearly warmed” over the past half century, gaining 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1960.
BP’s Deepwater Oil Spill – Preparing to Move – and Open Thread
Update, 6:00pm Thursday: The cap was removed from the well late Thursday afternoon. The next step will be removing the blow-out preventer, which is considered forensic evidence.
The annotations to the ROV feeds from BP are becoming a little more descriptive, particularly with those related to the Q4000, which will be playing a significant part in the replacement of the blowout preventer (BOP) on the Deepwater Horizon well. However, at 9 pm on the 1st, with the waves still a little higher than desired, the activity has yet to start.
One of the new camera feeds that is being displayed is a weight indicator on the deck of the Q4000. This is not yet on line, but Admiral Allen pointed out on Wednesday the loads that will come onto the vessel.
We anticipate removing the blowout preventer with the latching mechanism that will be attached to a drill pipe string that will be suspended from the Q4000. . . . . . .
The combined weight of the drill string, the latching mechanism and the blowout preventer itself is approximately a million pounds. When they released that blowout preventer from the well it will be suspended at about 5000 feet below the surface.
There are two things we’re concerned about when this occurs, number one is the wave height. You can imagine the Q4000 riding up and down on the waves. When they ride up it exerts more dynamic loading on that pipe system. So we’re concerned about the weight and the ability of the pipe system to handle that.
Before the BOP itself is removed, the capping stack has to be taken off. The latching mechanism to attach to that is already down underwater, and is being monitored by the Enterpise, through ROV2. The stack will come off first, and it is that activity which is now expected to start at noon on Thursday.
Once the Q4000 latches onto the original BOP, it is going to raise it up, through the platform of the vessel, and then set it back down on that deck. There are two additional static cameras on the Q4000 which are monitoring the moon pool, and which are presumably going to be carrying all this activity starting Thursday and running perhaps 36 hours, depending on the weather and how easily the BOP assembly breaks away from the well.
As soon as the Q4000 has the BOP on board, it has to move out of the way (and trans-ship the parts of the BOP, once separated to smaller ships to be sent ashore) so that the new BOP can be put in place.
This is the task for Development Driller 2, but before the job is finished the BOP has to be thoroughly tested to ensure that everything is now functional, the BOP will then be ready for the final stages. At this point it will be possible to restart the relief well to complete the bottom kill. That is still not anticipated to start until after Labor Day.
I am going to insert the quote on what the Admiral said on hydrates it its entirety, since I am not sure exactly what his point was.
Hello, Admiral. Can you tell me how the current BOP is attached to the well head and if there’s any concern about hydrates or other (inaudible) that might make it difficult to latch?
Thad Allen: Well, the current BOP is attached to the wellhead with the same connector they would use for any similar drilling well. To the extent that hydrates are there, we don’t expect that to be a problem right now. Had we continued to try and fish and get the pipe out of there, there was some concerns that hydrates would be blocking our ability to use a camera and actually operate down there. So I’m not sure that’s an issue. If there’s an issue at all, it’s probably the issue of the condition of the wellhead itself. When the Deepwater Horizon exploded and sank it bent the riser pipe over and ultimately the riser pipe was severed from the drill rig. At that point, if you can imagine, as massive as the blowout preventer was and that wellhead was, it probably bent over to some extent and then when the riser pipe separated from the rig it popped back up. It did not pop straight back up and there’s been some attempt to level that, to make sure we could get that as close to vertical as we can. I believe the current estimate right now, it is about two degrees off center line. So as we go in to pull the blow out preventer out, I would say hydrates are not a real big concern. I think the alignment to the true vertical about two degrees off would impact somehow to a very small degree the pull on the BOP as you’re trying to free it. We are aware of it. The engineers have taken that into account. We don’t think it will be a prohibiting condition, but it is something we are aware of.
In the other story that I have been watching, that of the miners in Chile, the equipment has started, and the preliminary drilling of the central shaft is now down more that 20 m. At the same time the rescuers are considering ways of reaming one of the smaller drill holes that have already reached the area. This might take a greater number of stages to get the hole out to the required size, but could, in total, be faster than the two-stage operation that is currently in progress. In either case, moving the muck from the bottom of the excavation with wheelbarrows, and ensuring that none of it gets stuck as it falls from the machine, are both concerns that will have to be addressed as the work moves forward.
German Military Study Warns of Potential Energy Crisis
This week a study on peak oil by a German military think tank was leaked on the Internet. The document shows that the German government is closely studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines. The study is reminiscent of the Hirsch Report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy, that warned of the risks posed by peak oil.
The document warns of the potential for regional shortages, market failures, and a shift in political power toward those capable of exporting oil. This report describes potential outcomes that require planning and preparation. The scenarios outlined in the paper are exactly the kinds of drivers that lead me to advocate for greater regional energy self-sufficiency. The report clearly lays out just how vulnerable Europe will be because of its continuing dependence upon Russia for both oil and gas, and notes that Russia will be in a very strong political bargaining position as a result.
The report can be accessed from the popular German paper Der Spiegel in this story: Bundeswehr-Studie warnt vor dramatischer Ölkrise. The report is so far only available in German, and while Ich spreche ein wenig Deutsch (I speak a little German), I am not fluent enough to capture the essence of the report. (Der Spiegel has summarized the report in English now: Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis).
However, I have a friend who is both fluent in German (his native tongue) and passionate about peak oil outreach. Given a week, I could probably translate the report. My friend (who didn’t want to be identified) did it overnight. Below is his translation of the major points in the report.
Peak Oil
Implications Of Resource Scarcity On (National) Security
Center for German Army Transformation, Group for “Future Studies”
July 2010
1. Introduction
The focus of the document is on the topic of finite resources, using Peak Oil as an example. The report is part of a series of publications focused on the long term (30 years) with the intent to enable the Ministry of Defense to take action early.
In the past, resources have always triggered conflicts, mostly of regional nature. For the future, the authors expect this to become a global problem, as scarcity (mainly of crude oil) will affect everybody.
The authors confirm multiple views on Peak Oil timing and concede that there will be Peak Oil eventually. The study isn’t about positioning the problem on a timeline, but instead about the consequences of a peak. They expect major consequences with a delay of 15-30 years after the peak has hit.
The report refers to the uncertainty of reserve statements mainly in OPEC countries based on the quota allocation method within OPEC but also refers to the possibility of better extraction technologies.
They suggest that it has become urgent to understand those consequences of an eventual peak now in order to have enough time to adapt.
2. The Importance of Oil
2.1 Oil as a driver of globalization
95% of all industrial outputs is dependent on oil as a fuel and/or as a chemical base for polymer production etc. Oil has become a key driver of modern lifestyle and globalization.
Substantial oil price increases poses a systemic risk, not just for obvious things like transportation, but equally for other subsystems.
Thus, internationally, but equally nationally, there is a vital interest in securing access to oil, which is currently possible on world spot markets, with OPEC being cooperative due to a mutual dependency between key actors (and a massive presence of the U.S military in the Gulf region).
Yet, on the other hand, regional conflicts can always at least partially be attributed to resources, such as in the Caucasus region, the Middle East or in Nigeria. They may also fuel conflicts due to the wealth they create (such as in Africa).
The report sees – within a timeframe until the year 2040 – a changed international security layout based on new risks (including transport risks for fuels) and new roles of actors in a possible conflict around the distribution of increasingly scarce resources.
2.2 German energy security.
The term is defined narrowly as “reliable energy supply”, and then extended to include environmental objectives, technology transformation of societies, planning for energy demand and the long-term planning of a national strategy, tied in with international organizations.
This expansion of the view is seen as required based on the globalization of energy markets. However, the report then narrows in scope again to the possible risk from a supply shock, focusing on the key suppliers of oil: Russia, Norway and the U.K. It is noted that both European partners are already past their peak and that Germany is increasingly dependent on Russia, which currently is reliable but not necessarily so in the long term. Given the expected decline in German energy consumption, the Russian share will likely be 40% by 2025, with the Middle East, Africa and sources around the Caspian Sea making up for the increasing gap from declining European production.
3. Possible Scenarios After Global Peak Oil
This chapter looks at gradual changes (3.1.) and the risk of disruptive changes (3.2) past a certain tipping point.
3.1 General interdependencies driven by Peak Oil
3.1.1 Oil as a deciding factor in international relationships
With increasing scarcity, producers are increasingly in an advantageous position, both from high revenues and access to cheaper oil when compared to spot market prices. This partly reverses the trend to free oil markets which took place after the ’70s shocks, and gives those countries more control over the supply chain, with a risk of monopolies and nationalizations, and of “political pricing.”
Further, oil producers use increasing amounts of their production internally at lower prices, which increases domestic consumption and inefficiencies, accelerating the problem. [The authors miss out on the fact that high oil prices also bring more wealth to the country which AGAIN increases resource consumption].
The report then looks at increasing “strategic” moves by key actors including the Chinese CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation), which tries to grab the sources that are still available (particularly in Asia and Africa), but often at relatively unattractive conditions.
Overall, the authors expect a reduction of “free market” mechanisms in oil trade, and a rise in more protectionism, exchange deals, and political alliances between suppliers and customers, which could lead to significant geopolitical shifts. Equally, the authors expect this interdependency to shape foreign affairs of oil importers, making them more tolerant towards rogue behavior of suppliers out of sheer need.
Overall, higher volatility and loss of trust are seen as possible outcomes in a world where oil supplies are limited, increasing the need for “oil related diplomacy” and thus increasing the risk of moral hazard among all actors, which in turn decreases overall global supply security.
The report then refers to already existing actions of the German government to tie close economic relationships with energy suppliers, and to the tendency of consuming countries to reduce oil dependency, trying to steer clear of risks of future supply shocks.
The Middle East is identified as a very dangerous region with high external involvement from many players and thus a very unstable overall situation.
Overall, the report expects a reduction of the importance of “Western values” related to democracy, and human rights in the context of politically motivated alliances, which increasingly are driven by emerging economies such as China – likely leading to double standards. Emerging economies are equally expected to receive higher recognition in international organizations, particularly those with strength in resources (such as Russia).
3.1.2 New security risks based on additional/alternative energy resources
New conflicts are potentially arising from oil exploration in international or disputed ocean waters, where multiple issues arise, particularly around the Arctic Circle, with further geopolitical risks for conflict.
Also, the shift to natural gas is reviewed as an extension of the “oil age”, because it might be able to replace crude oil as a bridging source until new solutions are found. The risks for problems from transporting gas (pipelines) and the related issues (as seen between Russia and its neighbors during the past years) are highlighted.
Equally, nuclear power as a potential source is highlighted – emphasizing the risk for safety and the proliferation of nuclear technology. This would also require an increasing shift towards electricity.
Equally, the competition between biofuel and food production is highlighted, showing the limits of biofuel outputs to compensate for reductions in oil availability, and also showing risks for water supply and soil degradation from excessive use.
Overall, the authors see a trend to increase the energy autonomy of entire regions from external supplies, both in the ability to generate alternative fuels (from biofuels and coal), but particularly in electricity generation.
3.1.3 A shift in roles between private and public actors
Based on the increasing importance of oil, governments are becoming more relevant in securing the benefits of oil, both on the supply and on the demand side. This puts a higher emphasis on political negotiations and deals, and increases the risks for nationalizations of resources and key exploration activities.
Exploration licenses are seen as a key area where bidding wars (including non-financial commitments) might emerge. Equally, increasing pressure to renegotiate or revoke already existing licenses might emerge. Ultimately, each country will try to secure sufficient oil to maintain its standard of living.
On the other hand, private enterprises are seen on the rise in protecting infrastructure and ensuring production and transportation security in less developed regions, particularly if weaker countries become unable to keep their own services up.
The dependency on oil-related infrastructure (pipelines, refineries, harbors, key pathways on oceans) will increase, and thus the risk. Damaging infrastructure through hostile acts (sabotage, war) might become an attractive target for groups or countries with a tendency to use violence. The same is expected for electricity and natural gas-related infrastructure – they all might require higher protection.
Generally, the focus of risks is expected in the region which the authors consider the “strategic ellipse” (a term used for the region East of Europe reaching from Saudi Arabia in the South to Russia and former Soviet Union countries in the North), because a majority of oil reserves are located in this area.
3.1.4 Economic and political crises as a consequence of the transition to “post-fossil” societies
A number of risks of higher oil prices are seen for modern economies, particularly in transportation. Security risks are seen in resulting systemic crises.
A first direct consequence of higher oil prices and lower availability of fossil fuels is a possible reduction in transportation capacity, equally in individual transportation and in freight forwarding. This might lead to another “mobility crisis” for societies that heavily depend on cars and trucks.
Higher cost in commercial transportation markets might severely affect current supply chains, and no alternatives are in sight (electric trucks don’t exist yet). Food particularly might become a critical issue for countries that are a) highly dependent on imports and b) are susceptible to price-increases of food products, particularly affecting Africa, parts of Asia and Latin America, and the Middle East.
High oil prices would further affect almost all aspects of society, as it will also influence the cost of chemicals and all products derived from them, which might substantially alter the nature of value chains and make certain things uneconomical – ultimately leading to higher unemployment during a transformational phase away from an oil based economy. This might particularly affect the German car industry.
Limits in availability might also strengthen regulatory efforts, encourage the allocation of energy (oil) by rationing schemes and possible other actions limiting free markets.
Additionally, the changes and likely reduction in standard of living might render societies less stable and make them more attracted to extremist political positions and even trigger changes in government systems, as trust into key actors in politics will diminish. This might be a particular risk for the relatively young democratic countries in Eastern Europe.
3.1.5 More selective intervention – key actors overwhelmed
Overall, more expensive transportation and increasing problems “at home” might reduce the ability of larger countries to intervene internationally (politically and/or with military action), and also lower the readiness to provide help to poorer countries. The focus will be more on a country’s (energy) interest for itself and not so much on an ideal of transferring Western values. The gap will likely not be filled by NGOs, as they will be affected by similar limits.
Overall, international institutions will be weakened, as they will have less resources to provide help and support, and it becomes equally possible that help will be attached to direct (energy) needs of the donors.
3.2 Systemic risks after reaching a “tipping point”
In addition to the gradual risks, there might be risks of non-linear events, where a reduction of economic output based on Peak Oil might affect market-driven economies in a way that they stop functioning altogether, leaving the possibility of a relatively steady downward trajectory.
Such a scenario could develop through an initially slow decline of trade and economic activity, combined with higher stress on government budgets from lower tax income, higher social cost and growing investment into alternative technologies.
Investment will decline and debt service will be challenged, leading to a crash in financial markets, accompanied by a loss of trust in currencies and a break-up of value and supply chains – because trade is no longer possible. This would in turn lead to the collapse of economies, mass unemployment, government defaults and infrastructure breakdowns, ultimately followed by famines and total system collapse.
4. Challenges for Germany
4.1 Risk of new dependencies for Germany
Oil as a new factor of global power would create significant dependencies for Germany, and in order to avoid supply issues, strong ties with suppliers are a must, but equally a diversification of supply relationships, taking into account that a supplier might intentionally reduce capacity to accomplish political objectives.
Among the key supplier countries is Russia (supplying 35% of German oil imports), where reliability risks are prevalent, given past experience. Natural gas, as a possible temporary substitute, bears the same risk (37% comes from Russia). Thus, a diversification becomes essential.
4.2 Focus of politics on supply relationships
Germany needs strong and reliable ties to Russia and other Caspian Sea countries. This might create some challenges in international relations, particularly with smaller Eastern European countries [like Poland]. Thus, intensifying relationships to the Middle East might be equally relevant. However, all those relationships have an inherent risk of being instruments in conflicts, which puts a certain limit on treating all foreign partners the same.
4.3 More pragmatic foreign policy
The need to mitigate supply risks might require some compromises on foreign affairs topics (such as human rights). Equally, more active diplomatic efforts will be required with a focus of energy security in mind. This is more difficult given Germany’s reluctance to engage in political power play due to its history, but needs to be tackled in order to deal with the challenges ahead. The authors don’t want to encourage military solutions, but suggest a strong preventive development of political and diplomatic initiatives to tackle the problem.
4.4 Importance and freedom of industrial nations reduced
All industrial nations that depend on energy imports will become more dependent on new partners, both in emerging economies and supplier countries. This requires a new focus in foreign affairs, sometimes giving up standards in negotiations with countries that have different cultures and political systems.
4.5 Help in stabilizing supplier countries at risk
Some supplier countries (and surrounding regions) might be destabilized by the force of higher resource prices. This is an area where Germany needs to help by providing support for nation building and conflict resolution on the national and international level. This is in conflict with the lower economic power likely to result from Peak Oil, which might make interventions less likely and requires new approaches of “stabilization with lower effort.”
4.6 Growing conflict potential concerning the Arctic Circle
Germany might have to take positions in case of an upcoming conflict regarding resources in the Arctic Circle, where multiple countries (including Russia) have open claims for accessing oil and gas fields. This requires further research.
4.7 Nuclear technology proliferation
The risk for nuclear technology proliferation and thus more countries with the potential for nuclear weapons (and the risk for terrorists having access to nuclear material) is growing due to the proliferation of nuclear technology for energy generation. Equally, risks for terrorist attacks and accidents on German soil are rising. Both scenarios require more surveillance, intelligence and preventive action.
4.8 Higher conflict potential regarding critical infrastructure
Energy delivery infrastructure for all sources including electricity will have a higher importance in an oil constrained world, thus, securing its reliability, security and availability becomes mission-critical. International cooperation is needed to secure large international supply paths (pipelines, sea routes).
4.9 Larger “energy regions” change international alliances
The expectation of stronger connections between suppliers and consumers across continents creates different settings for current international alliances and security risks. DESERTEC (a large power production system in Northern Africa based on CSP) would require different settings even for military strategies.
4.10 Peak Oil for armed forces
Armed forces would also be significantly affected by fossil fuel limits, as they are very dependent on oil products. Significant investments in alternative energy procurement technologies (biofuels, coal-to-liquids – Fischer-Tropsch) and applications (electric and hybrid vehicles) would be required, with long transition times. Further, local energy-independence of stationary troop infrastructure (like military bases) using more renewable sources would be beneficial. The long term objective would be to fully convert Germany’s armed forces to only use renewable energy sources by 2100.
4.11 Crude Oil as a systemic risk
For scenarios which end with a complete destabilization of societies, Germany is at a significant risk given its strong participation in a globalized economy. Being still able to act requires a number of basic infrastructures to keep functioning, both for the country and its armed forces. Work is required to look into redundancy, high-resilience of infrastructure and local self-organization approaches.
5. Summary
The report sees significant risks arising from an unavoidable peak in oil production, which go beyond gradual shifts in energy systems and economies. This will likely lead to economic change and new geopolitical risks that affect much more than just what we can anticipate. The overall ability to describe exact outcomes is very limited, as many scenarios are possible, and further research is required.
Overall, more emphasis needs to be put on understanding and shaping international relationships with respect to energy security, anticipating and integrating the ongoing shift to different players in a resource-constrained world.
In any case, Germany has to identify and implement alternatives to the current transportation technologies that require oil, and put a similar emphasis on avoiding other dependencies, for example concerning rare earths.
For armed forces, Peak Oil creates significant risks, both from a mobility standpoint as well as from dependencies on other societal services. Understanding those risks requires further analysis and likely a very different approach in the future.
In general, more preparation is required for society and the army to make sure that problems are recognized and solutions are actively implemented.
Drumbeat: September 3, 2010
We need a better understanding of the ‘environmentalist’s paradox’
We hear lots of concerned chatter these days – not least, here on this site – about peak oil, peak water, deforestation, resource depletion and the like, but a popular riposte offered by those doubting such concerns is something commonly referred to as the “Environmentalist’s Paradox”.
The argument goes thus: “Why, despite resource depletion and the degradation of ecosystems, is average human well-being improving globally?”
People such as Matt Ridley, author of the Rational Optimist, argue that environmentalists are needlessly downbeat about humanity’s prospects. After all, we are a resourceful, adaptable, highly intelligent species more than capable of riding out any current concerns (if only we would de-shackle ourselves from free-market constraints).
As a counterpoint, we have the likes of Jared Diamond, author of Collapse, arguing that we should heed the lessons provided by failed civilisations of the past who extinguished themselves by over-exploiting their available natural resources.
The latest edition of the journal BioScience includes a fascinating paper which examines just this paradox.
Crude Oil Heads for Weekly Decline on Forecast for U.S. Jobless Increase
Oil declined, headed for a weekly drop, on forecasts that a U.S. government report will show the jobless rate rose in August for the first time in four months, threatening the recovery in fuel demand.
Futures are down 1 percent this week. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the August payrolls report from the Labor Department will show the U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs. Crude gained yesterday after an fire on a Gulf of Mexico oil and natural-gas platform prompted speculation that tighter regulations will cut production.
`Bear Flag’ Signals a Decline in Oil Price to Near $60
Crude oil is set for a drop to near $60 a barrel, extending a descent started in May, according to a technical analysis by independent analyst Jim Stellakis.
“Last month’s breakdown in crude oil is continuing the longer-term bearish pattern which was started by the May decline,” Stellakis said. The bear flag pattern is signaled after a break occurs below a rising trading range.
Record Russian Oil Premium Vanishes on Refinery Run Cuts
Russian crude’s unprecedented premium to North Sea Brent is vanishing as European refiners switch to higher-value blends and scale back purchases to protect their profits.
Oil May Fall as U.S. Refineries Conduct Seasonal Maintenance, Survey Shows
Crude oil may fall next week as U.S. refineries perform seasonal maintenance, reducing demand, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Fourteen of 34 analysts, or 41 percent, forecast crude oil will decline through Sept. 10. Ten respondents, or 29 percent, predicted that futures will rise, and 10 projected prices will be little changed. Last week, 41 percent of analysts forecast an increase.
Crude warning for policymakers
South Africa imports around two-thirds of its liquid fuels.
The government’s strategy regarding security of liquid fuel supply assumes that sufficient crude oil imports will be both available and affordable in the foreseeable future. The emphasis has been on ensuring that adequate quantities of refined products are available to meet rising demand, especially in the economic heartland of Gauteng.
Russia to double gas imports from Azerbaijan in a fresh blow to EU-touted pipeline project
MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s Gazprom on Friday clinched a deal to double supplies from Azerbaijan in a bid to expand its control over gas produced by former Soviet republics.
…The European Union was planning to use Azerbaijan’s vast energy resources as a key source of gas for a major pipeline project, Nabucco, to bring Caspian and Central Asian gas to Europe, bypassing Russia.
Ukraine May Give Russia Joint Control of Pipe to Cut Gas Prices
(Bloomberg) — Ukraine is willing to give Russia joint control of a pipeline to southeastern Europe in exchange for access to natural gas supplies, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said as the country’s negotiate a gas venture.
The governments are seeking to create the venture between NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy and OAO Gazprom, both of which were once part of the Soviet gas monopoly, by year-end, Azarov said in an interview in his Kiev office yesterday. The agreement would reduce the price Ukraine pays for Russian gas, he said.
No sign of oil after Gulf platform fire: Coast Guard
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) – An oil and gas platform operated by Mariner Energy burst into flames in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, but the crew of 13 escaped and there were no signs of an oil spill, the Coast Guard said.
U.S. Probes Mariner Fire in Gulf of Mexico That Sparked BP Spill Deja Vu
The fire started on or near upper-deck living quarters and was not caused by an explosion, Patrick Cassidy, a spokesman for Mariner Energy, said in an e-mail. The company said oil and gas production from the wells controlled by the platform, known as Vermilion 380, has been shut down.
Mariner may be facing BP-style crisis
NEW YORK — Just a few months ago Mariner Energy was celebrating its imminent marriage to Apache Corp.
On Thursday, Mariner found itself in the middle of a potential BP-style crisis, with a rig off the coast of Louisiana that exploded and perhaps was leaking oil into the Gulf of Mexico.
Mariner shares dropped on the news, shedding more than 2 percent. Shares of Apache also fell.
HOUMA, La.—The fire that engulfed an oil and gas platform Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico heightened pressure on the energy industry, which is battling greater regulation and a deep-water drilling ban.
U.S. offshore oil fire may delay lift of drill ban
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Obama Administration is likely to stay focused on toughening regulatory oversight of the U.S. offshore oil industry and may push back lifting a ban on deepwater drilling after the latest accident in the Gulf of Mexico, analysts said on Thursday.
The fire on a Mariner Energy oil and gas platform in shallow waters of the U.S. Gulf on Thursday was a major setback for companies hoping for an early end to the government’s drilling moratorium and raised more questions about the safety of offshore drilling.
BP Says Limits on Drilling Imperil Oil Spill Payouts
BP is warning Congress that if lawmakers pass legislation that bars the company from getting new offshore drilling permits, it may not have the money to pay for all the damages caused by its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
The company says a ban would also imperil the ambitious Gulf Coast restoration efforts that officials want the company to voluntarily support.
BP oil spill costs surge to $8bln
LONDON (AFP) – British oil giant BP revealed Friday that the devastating Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster has cost it eight billion dollars so far — with a sharp rise in payments in the last month.
Factbox: U.S. Energy Disasters in 2010
HOUSTON (Reuters) – Energy production and distribution in the United States can be a dangerous pursuit, in spite of strict safety regulations for oil, gas and coal producers and processors.
Following is a look at energy-related disasters that have rocked the United States in the course of 2010, including the deadly and environmentally destructive oil spill at BP’s Macondo prospect in the Gulf of Mexico, which began in April.
Dreams of ships pass in the night
Fazel Fazelbhoy is a man with a vision. With the age of easy oil passing, the chief executive of Topaz is casting further afield, and that means deep offshore. In the wake of the BP spill, such projects are fraught with risk, but this dreamer’s reveries include Brazil.
Russia Transneft not to increase 2011 oil fee
(Reuters) – Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft will not increase oil shipping fees in 2011, Interfax news agency quoted the company’s head as saying on Friday.
“We are not going to raise the tariff at all,” Nikolai Tokarev said.
Petrobras May Raise Up to $75 Billion in Sale of Shares
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Latin America’s largest company by market value, will sell as much as 129 billion reais ($75 billion) of new voting and preferred shares to investors and the government.
Wheat Rises on Russian Export Ban; Mozambique Riots
Wheat rose in Chicago after Russia, the world’s third-largest grower, extended a ban on grain exports into next year, raising the prospect of higher food prices that already have sparked riots in Mozambique.
…Residents of Mozambique’s capital, Maputo, were on strike for a second day yesterday in a protest over higher food and utility prices. At least seven people have died in clashes with police and another 280 injured, Cabinet spokesman Alberto Nkutumula said yesterday.
Scramble for food companies a warning of crisis to come
The corporate activity is a storm warning of how food shortages and famine will reshape the world and corporate strategies.
The Economist notes that by 2050 world grain output will have to rise by half and meat production will need to double to meet demand at a time when growth in grain yields is flattening out, there is little extra farmland and renewable water is running short.
Similarly, rising food prices are a poke in the eye that the world needs to remind us of how fragile the food production chain has become. The drought and bushfires in Russia, combined with limits on grain exports, have resulted in a 70 per cent price spike in wheat futures, which has caused prices for soy and barley to go up by 10 per cent.
Police say attacks on Pakistani minorities kill 23
QUETTA, Pakistan – Suicide bombings targeting religious minorities killed at least 23 people in Pakistan on Friday, driving up the toll of sectarian assaults in a country already battered by massive flooding.
The EPA’s new gas-mileage labels are good but not perfect
THE ENVIRONMENTAL Protection Agency is asking for comments on its proposed new gas mileage stickers for automobiles — so here’s ours.
Rating the new fuel economy labels
The EPA’s proposed fuel economy labels range from baffling to genuinely useful.
From Detroit, a fix for smog-belching motorcycles
DETROIT (CNNMoney.com) — When Americans debate the impact of fuel emissions on the environment, they usually talk about cars and trucks. But what about smaller vehicles like motorcycles, scooters, lawnmowers and ATVs?
Riding a lawn tractor for just an hour spits out as much pollution you’d get from driving a car for hundreds of miles, according to former Ford Motor Co. engineer Kyle Schwulst.
Report Says Heat, Not Smart Meters, Hiked Bills
After Pacific Gas & Electric, the giant California utility, began installing smart meters in the state’s Central Valley, the company was swamped with complaints from residents that their utility bills had increased.
But an independent review of the smart meters released Thursday found that the devices were functioning properly and attributed the high charges to a heat wave last year that coincided with their installation as well as poor customer service by P.G.&.E.
The nuclear industry’s federal regulator will face its first big decision early next year when it evaluates the design of a Korean reactor that conforms to most nations’ safety standards, but was rejected by a regulator in Europe.
The debate centres on a device known as a “core-catcher” that is built under the steel vessel containing the reactor core and serves as a last line of defence in a worst-case meltdown scenario.
Disasters data are our only guide
Nuclear industry regulators have only two sets of real-world data – Three Mile Island and Chernobyl – to draw on when weighing the merits of safety systems to prevent a catastrophe at nuclear power plants.
Mass Extinction Threat: Earth on Verge of Huge Reset Button?
Mass extinctions have served as huge reset buttons that dramatically changed the diversity of species found in oceans all over the world, according to a comprehensive study of fossil records. The findings suggest humans will live in a very different future if they drive animals to extinction, because the loss of each species can alter entire ecosystems.
Some scientists have speculated that effects of humans – from hunting to climate change – are fueling another great mass extinction. A few go so far as to say we are entering a new geologic epoch, leaving the 10,000-year-old Holocene Epoch behind and entering the Anthropocene Epoch, marked by major changes to global temperatures and ocean chemistry, increased sediment erosion, and changes in biology that range from altered flowering times to shifts in migration patterns of birds and mammals and potential die-offs of tiny organisms that support the entire marine food chain.
EPA to issue more rules in climate fight
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will roll out more regulations on greenhouse gases and other pollution to help fight climate change, but they will not be as strong as action by Congress, a senior administration official said.
Climate Risks That Every Executive Should Know About
We often think that climate change is something for the government to worry about — the news is packed full of debate around government response to global warming, whether it’s the climate bill, or how China is outpacing us yet again in carbon markets.
But there’s a more immediate risk to companies in the U.S., something that is much closer to home and independent of whatever the public sentiment happens to be on climate change. For the first time in history, executives and their companies are being held liable for activities that contribute to global warming. It’s not a debate, it’s already happening.
New website to track climate aid, key to UN talks
GENEVA (Reuters) – A website launched on Friday will help track whether rich countries are keeping a pledge to come up with $30 billion in climate aid for the poor, seen by the U.N. as a “golden key” to progress in talks on global warming.
India needs to shift from coal to other sources of energy: IEA
India will need investment of $4.5 trillion in the energy sector to cut carbon emissions as part of a global initiative to reduce global warming by 2050, the International Energy Agency Executive Director, Nobuo Tanaka, said here Friday.
The United Nations Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has said global emissions of carbon dioxide have to come down by 50 percent to limit the increase in average temperate to between 2 to 2.4 degrees centigrade.
Ministry sets up task force to study North Pole policies
TOKYO — The Foreign Ministry said Thursday it has set up a task force to examine Japan’s policies concerning the North Pole, as melting ice due to global warming opens the door to increased ship navigation and chances for resource development in the Arctic sea. The panel comprises deputy directors general of various bureaus at the ministry as the matter concerns such sectors as economy, security, environment and international law, a ministry official said.
World cannot afford worsening disasters, warns UN climate change chief
The world cannot afford escalating disasters of the kind recently witnessed in Pakistan and Russia, the top United Nations climate change official said today, underscoring the need for governments to take swift action to lead the world towards a low-carbon future.
Tibetan nomads struggle as grasslands disappear from the roof of the world
Like generations of Tibetan nomads before him, Phuntsok Dorje makes a living raising yaks and other livestock on the vast alpine grasslands that provide a thatch on the roof of the world.
But in recent years the vegetation around his home, the Tibetan plateau, has been destroyed by rising temperatures, excess livestock and plagues of insects and rodents.
The high-altitude meadows are rarely mentioned in discussions of global warming, but the changes to this ground have a profound impact on Tibetan politics and the world’s ecological security.
Autonomy shares rise on bid speculation
British software maker Autonomy was one of the few risers amongst FTSE 100 companies today on speculation that the company could be the target of a takeover bid.
While the market remained almost flat while expecting more economic data out of the US, Autonomy shares soared 66p, or 4%, to £16.96.
Traders cited US software giants such as Microsoft and Oracle as possible bidders. Company officials were not immediately available for comment.
Autonomy posted record six month revenues of $415.3m in July, up 28% from the first half last year. Pre-tax profit also rose 24% to a record $182.7m, the company said in a statement on July 22.