Our research also indicates Qatar is contractually obligated to import 2.0 Bcf/d of LNG thru its Golden Pass Terminal under a 20-year agreement with ExxonMobil & ConocoPhillips. Its first shipment is currently planned to arrive this September. Its contract appears to permit it to divert LNG shipments to other counties if it can obtain a higher price for its LNG. The five shipments it made to the USA since
November, 2009 all realized prices higher than $4.50/mcf. Its cost to offload in the United States appears to be $2.60/mcf. It will be very nice if all of Qatar’s shipments to Golden Pass are diverted, but the prospect of 2.0 Bcf/d of new supply arriving in US markets in September bodes extremely ill for the price of natural gas; regardless of what the oversupply is since prices are currently so low and many large domestic producers have production capacity they are not using.

If the EIA’s figures are correct, what can 2.0 Bcf/d of LNG do to the price of natural gas here in the United States? Regardless, we personally suspect, and strongly so, that prices will revisit last October’s level below $2.50/mcf this fall; especially with so much gas currently in storage. We also suspect gas prices could be much lower in the next two years than anyone suspects. Our model certainly out-performed Tudor Pickering’s model which led it to project a 2010 natural gas price of $7/mcf some months ago.

With nearly 20.0 Bcf/d of LNG import capacity in North America right now, future LNG imports pose a very, very serious threat to domestic producers and the entire domestic natural gas industry. Any new gas in the market will have a negative effect if the glut of oversupply is real or not.

Whether the EIA’s methodology for estimating production is right or wrong, provided it has been consistently used in the last several years, our research indicates the natural gas oversupply has increased by nearly 3 Bcf/d in the last 18 months. If EIA made a technical error in that time, then the oversupply may be wrong. Regardless, at $2.60/mcf Qatar’s LNG poses a very real threat to domestic producers. One the domestic natural gas industry will ignore at its own peril.

ExxonMobil et alia appear to be marketing Qatar’s gas in the United States. Why? To be sure their natural gas reserves in Qatar are monetized and don’t just sit in the ground in the Persian Gulf. It is beginning to look like significant portions of the natural gas market are susceptible of capture by foreign LNG producers via the use of long-term supply contracts at fixed prices, or prices determined using some other commodity as an index. When domestic end-users realize they can obtain natural gas at lower prices over the long-term, and without the volatile price spikes of 2007 & 2008, they and LNG importers like Qatar will likely agree on some price they can both live with, a price that the domestic industry cannot live with, compounded by the lost market share LNG imports insure. If this scenario unfolds it will be a simple matter of the natural gas market becoming a pie for LNG suppliers to carve up at the expense of domestic producers (will the market share be 5 Bcf/d or 15 Bcf/d? Regardless, its more than the domestic industry can afford to allow LNG importers to have.). Naturally, Qatar would like to receive the highest price possible. LNG imports are a threat not to be ignored.

For instance, the nearly 1.0 Bcf/d of LNG Qatar imported thru Canaport in January & February of 2010, which was apparently delivered in the US Midwest and Northeast according to EIA, was natural gas El Paso, Devon, Apache and other domestic producers did not supply. And Chesapeake has stated it has idle production capacity.

We tend to believe this is the methodology ExxonMobil, Qatar and other large LNG suppliers have adopted, all with the goal of capturing market share in the long-term (this is one of the strategic goals of OPEC members, capturing/protecting market share). They will sell LNG at any price that turns them a profit, and so far, the US market has been fairly profitable for Qatar/ExxonMobil. The domestic natural gas industry cannot afford to ignore this possibility, and in our view, likelihood.

We have also identified LNG import contracts anticipating the import of more than 4.25 Bcf/d by Qatar, Gasprom, BG Group et alia. Gazprom is activity seeking customers in the United States.

Watching domestic drilling rig counts and projecting shale gas declines and new completion volumes are interesting and important elements to consider in the natural gas price projection puzzle, but to ignore the threat of 20.0 Bcf/d of import capacity and Qatar’s and ExxonMobil’s actions at Golden Pass and Canaport in the last 6 months could lead to a very sad state of affairs for domestic natural gas producers, service companies and royalty owner, as well as everyone who makes their living in the domestic natural gas industry. The board of directors of Nabors Industries shouldn’t ignore this possibility, and in our view, the likelihood, nor anyone else that works in the domestic industry. Aubrey McClendon & James Hackett should not ignore this likelihood.

We have also questioned where the oversupply is going as it is not likely all going into storage. We simply believe the domestic natural gas industry cannot afford to be wrong about LNG imports. Again, every Q-Max tanker load of more than 5.0 Bcf that arrives in the United States from Qatar is currently $20 million Devon, Chesapeake and other domestic producers won’t be receiving.

And the folks at Devon, Chesapeake and all other larger producers should keep in mind ExxonMobil is buying XTO Energy’s reserves at a price of less than $2.80/mcf. Low prices make buying natural gas reserves a cheap endeavor for a company like ExxonMobil that really isn’t all that active in exploring for natural gas reserves here at home, in the United States.

And, it isn’t going to take anywhere near 20.0 Bcf/d to cause a price collapse under our current supply conditions, whether the oversupply is 2 Bcf/d or 5 Bcf/d.

Mark

The bottom lineis that there has been little impact beyond the obligatory hype.

The market leader, realestate.com.au has become stronger, its share price has increased over 50%, and it now have 20% more visitors to its site (5.6m in October).

More importantly, when chatting with agents, most are unaware of its existance and if they are aware, they are not generating enough leads for Google to be relevant.

There is a large gap between putting up a site and truly challenging the market leaders.

For more views on this, check out http://www.propertyportalwatch.com

WHAT WILL BE IN THE NEAR FUTURE THE CHEAPEST BIOFUEL PER PASSENGER-KM. / MILE FOR AVIOATION.
This will be the question.

Aviation biofuel:
Which biofuel type will be the new leading biofuel?
Which biofuel type will be the most environmental friendly?
Which biofuel type will be the cheapest to produce?
Which biofuel type will be the most outstanding?

This is the answer of Mr. Billy Glover, director of Environmental Strategy of Boeing:
JATROPHA BIOFUEL: THE NEW AVIATION BIOFUEL!!
For more information: bill.glover@boeing.com

We offer airlines and airports for the first time in aviation history the possibility to participate in the production of their own biofuel.

We know biofuels for aviation work… but how to get enough?
One of the recurring themes of the Aviation & Environment Summit 2009 is the availability of sustainable biofuel feedstock’s.
The answer is for the aviation industry to take ownership of the supply chain for Bio Jet Fuel from sustainable resources. This would allow for the industry to facilitate the confirmed interest of investors as they would be
at liberty to view the end user of the prime product. Without an integrated driver/consumer the opportunity
to promote several feedstock’s for Bio Jet Fuel may be delayed.

Air New Zealand claims findings from biofuel test flight show significant reductions in fuel burn and emissions.
http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/aboutus/mediacentre/pressreleases/biofuel-test-flight-report-shows-significant-fuel-saving-28may09.htm

For all information: http://www.jatropha-biofuel.nl

Best regards,
Albert Jurgens.

According to independent studies, global crude oil production peaked in 2008 and is now declining terminally.

Within a year or two, oil prices will skyrocket as supply falls below demand.

Independent studies indicate that global crude oil production is now declining from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase. Oil supplies will be even tighter for the U.S. As oil producing nations consume more and more oil domestically they will export less and less. Because demand is high in China, India, the Middle East, and other oil producing nations, once global oil production begins to decline, demand will always be higher than supply. And since the U.S. represents one fourth of global oil demand, whatever oil we conserve will be consumed elsewhere. Thus, conservation in the U.S. will not slow oil depletion rates significantly.

Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. There is no plan nor capital for a so-called electric economy. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a 2007 report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”

“By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.”

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, water supply, waste water treatment, and automated building systems.

Documented here:
http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html
http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/